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Upgrade_PWR_to_Outperform_and_Raise_Target_to_650_In-Organ_-_BMO.pdf
March 27, 2026 | 00:27 ET~
Quanta Services, Inc.
PWR-NYSE Rating ↑
Outperform
Price: Mar-26
$545.64
Target ↑
$650.00
Total Rtn
19%
Upgrade PWR to Outperform and Raise Target to
$650; In-Organic Chemistry
Bottom Line:
Upgrading PWR to Outperform; raise our target price to $650/share. Our upgrade
of PWR to Outperform is not just owing to our increasingly bullish outlook for
transmission, distribution and generation investment, but rather predicated by our work
deriving a more discrete estimate for potential future in-organic EBITDA that we had not
previously included in our valuation. We appreciate PWR current valuation implies
an even wider premium than what the stock was previously discounting, but
spending trends for electric/AI infra continue exceeding expectations. We outline
our expectations for PWR investor day.
Key Points
Looking Back to Look Forward. We used the company's previous 4-year outlook from
its last Investor Day (see Exhibit 6) to serve as the basis to bifurcate the company's
growth rate based on organic and in-organic sources. We estimate the company's
organic EBITDA and EPS CAGR on an organic basis over this timeframe was 13%
and 12%, exceeding what was implied at the midpoint of the company's initial
outlook by 440bps and 130bps, respectively. Our analysis suggests PWR generated
an additional $8B in revenue and $845MM in EBITDA from bolt-on acquisitions that we
think remains a core strategy.
Cautiously Optimistic that PWR's Investor Day Next Week May Further Support Our
Constructive View. PWR management tends to be conservative when offering financial
guidance with a track record of beating and raising. Therefore, outlining a potential
range of expectations for the company's LT outlook that we expect may again include
organic revenue, EBITDA, cumulative FCF, ROIC revenue, organic/in-organic EPS is
tricky. However, if we conservatively assume the company grows at the same organic
rate it did the prior 4 years, we think a lower bound of ranges for organic metrics
such as Revenue/EBITDA/EPS of $52,684MM/ $5,542MM/$20.46. However, if we
assume 300bps of additional growth (upper end of potential range) our estimates
increase to $58,560MM/$6,156MM/$24.94 which is still ahead of consensus.
More importantly, utilizing the analysis in Exhibit 10 of our report where we assume
PWR continues its historical 80% re-investment of FCF via acquisitions at a conservative
12x multiple (we estimate 2022–2026 acquisitions ~9x), modest growth assumptions
and 50bps of margin expansion, our analysis suggests this could drive an additional
$1.4B of EBITDA and $5.17 EPS by 2030 which is now incorporated in our new $650
target on a risk-adjusted basis.
Key Changes
Rating Target
OP↑ $650.00↑
Mkt $600.00
Energy Transition & Infrastructure
Ameet Thakkar Analyst
ameet.thakkar@bmo.com (713) 546-9741
Ryan Schlageter Senior Associate
ryan.schlageter@bmo.com (929) 789-3536
Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Corp.
700
600
500
400
300
200 MarSepMarSep
543210
LHS: Price ($) / RHS: Volume (mm)Source: FactSet
2YR Price Volume Chart
Company Data in $
Dividend $0.44
Yield 0.1%
P/BV 8.8x
Shares O/S (mm) 149.6
Market Cap (mm) $81,639
Net Debt (mm) $(1,387)
BMO Estimates in $
(FY-Dec.) 2025A 2026E 2027E
EPS $10.75 $13.29 $16.00
Gross Mrgn
(mm)
$4,275 $5,103 $5,875
EBIT (mm) $1,612 $2,141 $2,567
EBITDA (mm) $2,866 $3,501 $4,041
Consensus Estimates
2025A 2026E 2027E
EPS $13.04 $15.29
Valuation
2025A 2026E 2027E
P/E NM 41.0x 34.1x
EV/EBITDA 31.1x 25.0x 21.1x
QTR. EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2025A $1.78 $2.48 $3.33 $3.16
2026E $2.20 $2.97 $4.26 $3.87
2027E $2.92 $3.59 $4.98 $4.50
Our Thesis
PWR is an increasingly indispensable partner to the
largest North American utilities and power developers
where capex plans continue to accelerate. TAM
expansion for PWR's other capabilities (e.g., data
centers) is still in very early innings. Breadth and
expertise warrant a significant premium relative
to peers. Exceptional track record of M&A portends
significant upside to estimates.For disclosure statements, including the Analyst Certification, please refer to page(s) 11 to 15.
Quanta Services - Block Summary Model
Income Statement 2025A 2026E 2027E
Revenues $28,480 $33,601 $38,319
Gross Margin 4,275 5,103 5,875
Gross Margin (%) 15.0% 15.2% 15.3%
Consolidated EBIT 1,612 2,141 2,567
Depreciation & Amortization 910 1,095 1,200
EBITDA 2,866 3,501 4,041
Interest Expense 261 264 235
Income Tax 348 472 595
Income from continuing operations 1,042 1,414 1,785
Weighted Average Shares
Outstanding
151 152 152
Diluted Operating EPS $10.75 $13.29 $16.00
Dividends per Share $0.40 $0.44 $0.48
Cash Flow Statement 2025A 2026E 2027E
Operating Cash Flow 2,230 2,776 3,245
Investing Cash Flow (3,831) (773) (766)
Financing Cash Flow 1,275 (67) (674)
Net Change in Cash Flow (303) 1,937 1,805
EOP Cash on Balance Sheet 443 2,380 4,185
Common stock (net) 0 0 0
Net debt issued/(repaid) 1,744 0 (600)
Free Cash Flow 1,672.73 2,003.58 2,478.95
Free Cash Flow to Equity per Share 11 13 16
Balance Sheet 2025A 2026E 2027E
Common Equity 7,457 10,520 12,474
Non-controlling Interest 90 90 90
Total Debt 5,995 5,995 5,395
Enterprise Value $89,062 $87,524 $85,360
Common equity % 8.4% 12.0% 14.6%
Preferred equity % 0.0 0.0
Total Debt % 6.7% 6.8% 6.3%
Book Value per Share $49.29 $69.21 $81.83
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports
Valuation
We value PWR utilizing a blended valuation approach that
combines our DCF and EV/EBITDA multiple (20.5x 2027E)
based valuations. The implied equity values under this
approach are weighted 50%/50% to arrive at our target
price. DCF utilizes an 8.0% discount and 4% terminal growth
rate. Include $86/share of upside potential from M&A.
Upside Scenario $740.00
Our upside scenario models higher growth for utility capex
and assumes PWR is able to win multiple largescale T&D
projects. It also assumes higher margin expansion given
broadening customer base beyond legacy utility customers
and reflects continued sustained growth at the renewables
segment comparable to recent historical years.
Downside Scenario $452.00
In our downside scenario, we assume less robust utility
spend and slower-than-expected growth of utility
outsourcing activity, driving less growth for the company's
electric T&D business. We also model a more pronounced
deceleration of renewable activity relative to our base case.
-17% +36%+19%
TargetPrice650.00
in USD
CurrentPrice545.64
DownsideScenario452.00
UpsideScenario740.00
Key Catalysts
The power demand thematic from AI continues to
gain traction with need for more power infrastructure,
which should imply continued end-market growth for
PWR. Additionally, we are looking for contract award
announcements for large transmission, renewables, and
data center projects. Upcoming Investor Day at the end of
1Q 2026.
Company Description
Quanta Services is a market-leading infrastructure specialty
contractor in North America, providing a comprehensive
suite of services including engineering and design,
construction and installation, repairs, upgrades, and
maintenance across the utility transmission and distribution,
renewable energy, and communications industries.
PWR-NYSE
Research
Glossary
Company
Models
Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 2 March 27, 2026
In-Organic Chemistry: Upgrade PWR to Outperform and Raise
Target to $650
Bottom Line: Upgrading PWR to Outperform; raise our target price to $650/share. Our upgrade of
PWR to Outperform is not just owing to our increasingly bullish outlook for transmission, distribution
and generation investment, but rather predicated by our work deriving a more discrete estimate for
potential future in-organic EBITDA that we had not previously included in our valuation. We appreciate
PWR current valuation implies an even wider premium than what the stock was previously
discounting, but spending trends for electric/AI infra continue exceeding expectations. We outline
our expectations for PWR analyst day.
Rating Change Rationale
We are upgrading PWR to Outperform and raising our target price to $650/share. In hindsight, our
prior downgrade of PWR was short-sighted. The magnitude of the level of investment being brought
to bear by PWR's legacy, core electric utility, IPP and developer customer base has continued to widely
exceed our previous expectations. For example, last week alone three projects with significant public/
private support were announced that would imply nearly 20 GWs of additional capacity and more
importantly for PWR, additional T&D infrastructure with utility service territories where it has a proven
track-record of winning projects.
In addition, the company's growing capabilities in more areas of data center construction means a
further expansion of its TAM is likely underway and still in very early innings. We appreciate that
PWR's current stock price implies an even wider premium than what the stock was previously
discounting relative to a broad based group of E&C and Electric Equipment OEMs when we prematurely
moved to Market Perform. However, an area where we think our prior valuation and forecasting
approach may have fallen short was incorporating and quantifying PWR's strong track record of
recycling excess cash flow back into its businesses via an increasing cadence of acquisitions that have
grown in average transaction size.
Our upgrade of PWR to Outperform is not just owing to our increasingly bullish outlook for
transmission, distribution and generation investment, but predicated in part by our work deriving
a more discrete estimate for potential future in-organic EBITDA opportunity that we had not
previously included in our valuation. Rather than simply raising our target valuation multiple further to
account for additional upside to our base estimates, which don't include the impact of future acquisitions,
we took a look back at PWR's last Investor Day held in April 2022 to further dis-aggregate PWR's prior
results vs. expectations over its last 4-year long-term plan ahead of the company's upcoming Investor
Day next week.
Cautiously Optimistic That PWR's Investor Day Next Week May Further Support Our Analysis. Our
analysis detailed in this report that served as part of our now more constructive rating was initially
undertaken to preview PWR's upcoming Investor Day scheduled for next week. PWR management has
earned a reputation for conservatism when offering financial guidance with a track record of beating and
raising.
Exhibit 1 - 2026-2030 Growth Scenarios
Initial Current Int. Exp Savings Int. Exp Savings 2030 2030
Financial 2022 Guidance 2022-2026 2026 Guidance 2030 Metrics No Investment+2030 Metrics 2030 Metrics No Investment+ 2030 2030 2030 Estimated Status Quo Growth300 bps Growth
Metric Midpoint CAGR Midpoint @ 2022-2026 CAGRIncrease in Adj.+100 bps growth+300 bps growthIncrease in Adj. BMO Cons Inorganic With Organic With Organic
Revenue $16,250 12% $33,500 $52,684 $54,591 $58,560 $54,492 $13,311 $65,994 $71,871
EBITDA $1,640 13% $3,420 $5,542 $5,742 $6,156 $5,857 $1,398 $6,940 $7,553
EPS $6.25 12% $13.00 $20.46 $2.20 $23.40 $24.94 $2.20 $24.37 $5.17 $25.62 $30.11
PWR 2030 Outlook Scenarios
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports
Looking to next week and beyond. A summary of what we think a reasonable range of expectations
for some of the metrics we expect PWR to include in its updated 4-year outlook that will span 2026-2030
Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 3 March 27, 2026
is shown above in Exhibit 1. We think PWR will once again focus on the same 2030 KPIs it did previously
(Organic Revenue, Organic EBITDA, Cumulative FCF, Organic/in-orgnic EPS and ROIC). Our output above
suggests:
• In a scenario where PWR assumes no additional growth than what it realized in its prior 4-year
outlook ending in 2026: revenue of around $52.5 billion, EBITDA of $5.5 million and adj. EPS of
$22.70. We think this could serve as a lower bound. These are all based just on organic growth.
• If we assume an additional 100bps of organic growth, revenue, EBITDA and EPS grow to $55.5
billion, $5.7 billion and $23.40.
• If we further increase organic growth to 300bps the organic revenue, EBITDA and EPS rise to $58.6
billion, $6.2 billion and $24.94.
• Our model when we utilize a scenario that includes additional acquisitions trends towards 14%
ROIC, compared to FY 2025 ROIC of 12.3% and FY 2022 8.8%. We anticipate PWR will continue to
guide towards 10%+ ROIC, but we expect results to exceed this.
• However, based on our estimates of impact of acquisitions on the company's results in
excess of organic growth rate targets suggest an additional $13.3 billion of revenue, $1.4
billion EBITDA and $5.17 EPS.
We view the upcoming investor event as a starting point for performance that will likely eventually more
closely mirror what we have forecast.
Exhibit 2 - PWR Customer Raising Capex Plans
+34%+40%+69%+48%+76%
+24%
+31%
$0B
$20B
$40B
$60B
$80B
$100B
DUK PCG AEP CNP*XEL ETR NI
Existing PWR Customers’ Rolling 5-year Capex Plans (vs. 3Q 2023)
As of 3Q 2023As of 3Q 2024As of 3Q 2025
Source: BMO Capital Markets, S&P Global
Exhibit 3 - Utility Capex Revisions
+ 11% + 12% + 34%
-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
2025 2026 2027 2028
Revisions to Planned Utility T&D Spend
As of Dec. 2024As of Dec. 2025
Source: BMO Capital Markets, S&P Global
Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 4 March 27, 2026
Exhibit 4 - Utility Capex Trends
--
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Utility Capex ($ MM)
Electric Utility Multi-Utility
2017-2021 Utility CAGR: 5%
2022-2026 Utility CAGR: 15%
Source: BMO Capital Markets, S&P Global
Grading How Last Investor Day Targets Have Tracked; Setting Stage for Next 4 Year Forecast. In the
figure below we highlight the key components of PWR's previous LT financial outlook that will culminate
in 2026 which the company provided at its investor event in 2022. PWR targeted EPS was largely cast as
$11.00 to $12.00 per share with organic EPS of $8.00 to $9.50 per share.
Exhibit 5 - PWR 2022 Analyst Day (2022-2026) Financial Targets
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports
In Exhibit 6 below we look back at PWR's historical results, including our FY 2026 estimates. While
consolidated growth of the business is the focus of PWR management, we attempt to bifurcate
the company's results in terms of organic and in-organic contributions to better grade execution
against prior expectations set in 2022 and frame the path to 2030. The company's continued
deployment of large portions of its FCF into rolling-up additional EPC oriented businesses has enhanced
results further which informs our expectations for next week's investor event and beyond.
Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 5 March 27, 2026
Exhibit 6 - PWR (2022-2026) Financial KPI Performance (Organic vs. In-organic)
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 12.5%
Organic Revenue $20,387 $21,918 $25,685 $31,626
Inorganic Revenue $495 $1,755 $2,795 $1,975
Total Revenue $17,074 $20,882 $23,673 $28,480 $33,601
EPS $6.33 $7.16 $8.97 $10.75 $13.29<< Target at 2022 Analyst Day $11.00-$12.00EBITDA $1,738 $1,935 $2,331 $2,866 $3,501
2023 $495 $557 $626 $705
2024 $1,755 $1,974 $2,221
2025 $2,795 $3,144
2026 $1,975Total Inorganic Revenue $8,045
Organic Revenue $25,556<< Target at 2022 Analyst Day $20B-$22BCAGR 10.6% 6.5%
Organic Net Income $1,495
Organic EPS $9.84<< Target at 2022 Analyst Day $8.00-$9.50CAGR 11.6% 10.7%
Inorganic Net Income $522.9
EPS $3.44
Organic EBITDA $2,658<< Target at 2022 Analyst Day $2.0B-$2.4BCAGR 11.2% 8.4%
Inorganic EBITDA $845
Cumulative FCF (2022-2026) $7,208<< Target at 2022 Analyst Day $4.5B-$5.5BDeployed for Acquisitions (2022-2026) $5,748
% of FCF Reinvested 79.7%
Estimate for Acquistion Related Debt $1,616
Implied Cumulative Acquistion Multiple Paid 8.7x
CAGR for 2022-2026 Includes BMO 2026 Estimates
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports
Highlights of our analysis are as follows:
• 2026 organic revenue on track for~ $26.6 billion well in excess of expected top end; 10.6% CAGR;
In-organic revenue of over $8 billion based on our analysis.
• We estimate organic EPS and $9.84 and in-organic EPS of $3.44/share.
• We estimate 2026 organic EBITDA of $2.7 billion running ahead of $2.4 billion target implying
EBITDA implying an 11.2% CAGR over the 4-year forecast timeframe; In-organic EBITDA in 2026
based on our analysis is on track for $845MM.
• Based on the company's financial statements over the current financial outlook timeframe, the
company reinvested 80% of its FCF to equity into acquisitions. We estimate that the company
completed the acquisitions at around a 9x EBITDA.
As PWR management has consistently said, even in the current hyper-demand environment to
further expand power infrastructure, the company's EBITDA margin is expected to remain fairly
stable. We estimate EBITDA margins from 2022-2026 averaged 10% and our forward assumptions only
embed slight improvement to 10.6% from 2026-2030. The 3 years prior to the current company financial
outlook averaged around 9.7%. Therefore, while the company's existing operations have and will
benefit from strong ongoing investment levels from its core electric infrastructure customers we
see acquisitions as having enhanced EBITDA growth more than we had previously appreciated. As
evidence, we estimate acquisition related EBITDA drive over 800bps in additional EBITDA growth
from 2022-2026 (consolidated EBITDA CAGR 19%).
Big, Small, and In Between: Acquisitions Have Driven Higher Returns
As part of our analytical framework to arrive at potential estimates for impact of future PWR roll-ups, we
also have relied on the company's preferred financial KPI, after-tax return on invested capital (ROIC). As
shown below we have observed a notable improvement in the company's ROIC following an increasing
re-investment rate into large acquisitions. As highlighted earlier, the company re-invests a significant
Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 6 March 27, 2026
portion of its free cash flow into bolt-on acquisitions that expand its span of operations and pool of craft
labor given its high ratio of self-perform work. ROIC has improved by nearly 700bps in 2025 compared
to 2017. In addition, as a further proof point for the company's strength in identifying the right target
companies, write-downs have been minimal even with greater investment levels.
Exhibit 7 - PWR Cash Consideration for Acquisitons ($ MM) and
Number of Acquisitions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
201720182019202020212022202320242025
Est. Number of Acquistions
Cash for Acquisitions ($ MM)
Cash For Acquistions and Estimated Number of Acquisitions
Cash for AcquistionsEst # of Acquisitions
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports
Exhibit 8 - PWR Realized ROIC 2017-2025 and Asset Impairments
5.8%
6.6%
8.1%
9.3%
8.8%
10.8%11.5%
12.7%12.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
After Tax ROIC
Asset Impairments ($ MM)
PWR Realized ROIC and Asset Impairments
ImpairmentsROIC (after tax)
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports
We also see the company's operational efficiency having grown the last several years despite an
additional 12 acquisitions over its previous forecast horizon and is reflected in revenue per employee
increasing from ~$390,000 in 2022 to ~$490,000. We expect operational efficiency to be a potential
focus area at the Investor Day next week as the company has previously discussed how technology
may potentially lean out engineering human capital needs and may speed many of the company's
maintenance activities.
Exhibit 9 - PWR Revenue per Employee
$58
$49
$14
$8 $6
$14
$0 $0 $0
5.8%
6.6%
8.1%
9.3%
8.8%
10.8%
11.5% 12.7% 12.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Asset Impairments and ROIC (Pre-tax)
Impairments ROIC (after tax) $200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue per Employee ($)
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports
Extrapolating How Acquisition Strategy May Contribute
In the exhibit below we highlight potential cumulative EBITDA contribution from PWR based on our
assumptions based on our estimates for the company's current operations cash generation available
to be deployed using a simplified model we have constructed. The resulting cumulative EBITDA output
Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 7 March 27, 2026
is now incorporated in our valuation and target price for PWR, but not in our earnings and cash flow
estimates. Put another way, our base forecast is the starting point to how we think the company can
recycle capital as outlined below.
Key aspects of our analysis:
1. We constrain debt financing to net debt/EBITDA to 1.5x (total debt/EBITDA >1.8x) and require
minimum $600MM cash balance.
2. We estimate the company invests ~80% of Free Cash Flow to equity which is largely consistent
with levels from 2022-2026.
3. We conservatively estimate the company pays a 12x EBITDA multiple compared to 9x in our
analysis of prior in-organic EBITDA.
4. Implied a 10.5% EBITDA margin and assume acquired EBITDA grows ~6% annually.
5. Implied ROIC of ~14%.
Exhibit 10 - BMO Mini Model of PWR Acquisition Economics
PWR Inorganic Growth Assumptions 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Assumptions
Target Net Debt/EBITDA 1.50x
Acquisition Multiple 12.0x
Minimum Cash Balance $600.0
Drivers
Beginning Cash $1,528.8 $600.0 $600.0 $1,097.7 $1,243.2
Beginning Debt $5,994.9 $6,439.8 $7,738.1 $9,740.3$11,563.5
TTM Adjusted EBITDA $3,500.9 $4,267.9 $5,088.0 $6,078.0 $7,254.4
Net Debt $4,466.2 $5,839.8 $7,138.1 $8,642.6$10,320.3
Max Net Debt Allowed $5,251.3 $6,401.9 $7,631.9 $9,117.0$10,881.6
Incremental Net Debt Capacity $785.2 $562.1 $493.9 $474.4 $561.3
Cash Available $928.8 -- -- $497.7 $643.2
Funding Need -- -- -- -- --
Max Acquisition Spend Supported $1,713.9 $562.1 $493.9 $972.1 $1,204.5
Actual Acquisition Spend 80.0% $1,371.2 $2,731.7 $3,672.5 $4,937.2 $5,597.1
Financing Split
Cash Used $928.8 $1,679.5 $1,928.8 $3,050.1 $3,733.5
Debt Draw Down $442.4 $1,052.2 $1,743.7 $1,887.1 $1,863.6
Ending Debt $6,437.3 $6,889.5 $8,133.2$10,020.3$11,883.9
Ending Cash $1,447.5 $1,546.9 $1,762.5 $1,961.0 $1,236.4
Ending Net Debt $4,989.8 $5,342.6 $6,370.6 $8,059.3$10,647.5
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.4x 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x 1.5x
Debt/EBITDA 1.8x 1.6x 1.6x 1.6x 1.6x
EBITDA Sequential Growth 1.5%
EBITDA Added -- $227.4 $522.6 $906.6 $1,397.6
EBITDA Margin 10.5%
Incremental D&A -- $75.8 $174.2 $302.2 $465.9
EBIT Margin 7.0%
EBIT Margin -- $151.6 $348.4 $604.4 $931.7
Revenue Added -- $2,165.4 $4,977.0 $8,633.9$13,310.5
Source: BMO Capital Markets
Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 8 March 27, 2026
Exhibit 11 - PWR In-organic EBITDA Potential
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
2027 2028 2029 2030
BMO PWR Base EBITDA And Cumulative In-organic EBITDA Potenial ($MM)
Base EBITDAPotential EBITDA
Source: BMO Capital Markets
PWR Valuation and Key Estimates
Our estimates for PWR remain unchanged. However, as alluded to throughout the note, we
are updating our valuation framework for PWR to better reflect the upside potential from in-
organic growth, grounded in PWR's exceptional track record of reinvesting excess cash flow into
the business via acquisitions. Rather than raising our target valuation multiple further to account for
additional upside to our base estimates, which don't include the impact of future acquisitions, we now
incorporate value for contribution for potential future acquisitions based on our analysis of how we think
PWR can recycle capital. Using similar assumptions to PWR's historical M&A activity, we estimate PWR
can generate an incremental $1,400MM of in-organic EBITDA by 2030. Using a 13.0x multiple on this in-
organic opportunity, our valuation assumes $86/share of upside value to our base estimates.
We continue to value PWR's base business utilizing a blended valuation approach that combines a
discounted cash flow valuation and EV/EBITDA multiple approach. We apply a 20.5x multiple to our
2027 EBITDA estimate of $4,041MM, implying $521/share in equity value. Our target multiple implies an
~60% premium to the S&P 500 and a ~50% premium to the group of publicly traded EPC peers reflecting
substantial above-market EBITDA, FCF, and earnings growth implied in our estimates and our view that
utility spending will support robust results for a meaningful period of time.
For the DCF component of our blended valuation, we utilize an 8.0% discount and 4% terminal growth
rate, which implies $606/share. The implied equity values under this approach are weighted 50/50, and
we add $86/share of future acquisition value to arrive at our $650 target price.
Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 9 March 27, 2026
Exhibit 12 - PWR Valuation
PWR DCF 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
CFO $2,776 $3,245 $3,381 $3,812 $4,345 $4,961 $5,420 $6,016 $6,698 $7,466
Less Capex ($773) ($766) ($775) ($774) ($790) ($809) ($822) ($830) ($833) ($851)Less SBC ($235) ($243) ($371) ($264) ($273) ($283) ($293) ($303) ($313) ($324)FCF $1,769 $2,236 $2,235 $2,773 $3,282 $3,870 $4,305 $4,883 $5,552 $6,291
PV $1,638 $1,917 $1,774 $2,039 $2,233 $2,439 $2,512 $2,638 $2,777 $2,914
DCF Through 2035 $22,881Terminal Value $72,848DCF Value $95,729
Less 2026 YE Net Debt3,619
Equity Value $92,110
2026 YE Diluted Share Count152.0 Weighting
Implied Target Price$606 50%
Discount Rate 8.00%Terminal Growth 4.0%
PWR EV/EBITDA
2027 EBITDA $4,041Target EV/EBITDA Multiple 20.5xEnterprise Value $82,832Less Net Debt (2026E) 3,619Implied Equity Value $79,213
2026 YE Diluted Share Count 152.0 Weighting
Implied Target Price $521 50%
Acquired EBITDA (2030) $1,400Target EV/EBITDA Multiple 13.0xEnterprise Value $18,200
Acquisition Debt 5,125Implied Equity Value $13,075
2026 YE Diluted Share Count 152.0
Acquisition Value $86
PWR Blended Target Price $650
Source: BMO Capital Markets
A summary of key model assumptions and financial outputs used in our model can be found in the
following exhibits.
Exhibit 13 - PWR Key Operating AssumptionsSelect Model Assumptions and Drivers2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E2028E
Electric InfrastructureTotal Electric Infrastructure Revenue$15,867$19,012$23,001$27,055$31,492$35,947Electric Power EBIT $1,491$1,959$2,360$2,830$3,340$3,854Margin 9.4% 10.3%10.3%10.5%10.6%10.7%Electric Power EBITDA $1,713$2,207$2,645$3,170$3,732$4,297Margin 10.8%11.6%11.5%11.7%11.8%12.0%
Underground and InfrastructureTotal Underground and Infrastructure Revenue$5,015$4,660$5,478$6,546$6,826$7,086Underground and Infrastructure EBIT$378 $265 $398 $543 $584 $613Margin 7.5% 5.7% 7.3% 8.3% 8.5% 8.6%Underground and Infrastructure EBITDA$456 $352 $504 $650 $695 $727Margin 9.1% 7.6% 9.2% 9.9% 10.2%10.3%
Source: BMO Capital Markets
Exhibit 14 - PWR Select Financial OutputsSelect Financial Outputs 2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E2028E
Electric Power Revenue $15,867$19,012$23,001$27,055$31,492$35,947Underground and Infrastructure Revenue$5,015$4,660$5,478$6,546$6,826$7,086Total Revenue $20,882$23,673$28,480$33,601$38,319$43,033
EBIT $1,128$1,346$1,612$2,141$2,567$2,976EBIT Margin 5.4% 5.7% 5.7% 6.4% 6.7% 6.9%Adj. EBITDA $1,935$2,331$2,866$3,501$4,041$4,565Adj. EBITDA Margin 9.3% 9.8%10.1%10.4%10.5%10.6%
EPS $5.00$6.03$6.79$9.09$11.50$13.65Adj. EPS $7.16$8.97$10.75$13.29$16.00$18.42
Cash Flow ItemsCFO $1,576$2,081$2,230$2,776$3,245$3,381Net Capex ($365)($526)($557)($773)($766)($775)FCF $1,210$1,555$1,673$2,004$2,479$2,606FCF Per Share $8.13$10.36$11.06$13.18$16.26$17.03
Balance Sheet ItemsCash $1,290.2$742.0$439.5$2,376.2$4,181.4$6,206.2Total Debt $4,198.7$4,162.4$5,994.9$5,994.9$5,394.9$4,894.9Net Debt $2,908.5$3,420.5$5,555.4$3,618.7$1,213.5($1,311.3)
Total Equity $6,283.4$7,329.7$9,027.9$10,609.8$12,563.9$14,975.5
Total Capitalization $9,191.81$10,750.19$14,583.27$14,228.52$13,777.45$13,664.21Total Debt / Cap 0.46x0.39x0.41x0.42x0.39x0.36xNet Debt / Cap 0.32x0.32x0.38x0.25x0.09x-0.10x
Total Debt / EBITDA 2.17x1.79x2.09x1.71x1.34x1.07xNet Debt / Adj. EBITDA 1.50x1.47x1.94x1.03x0.30x-0.29x
Diluted Shares 148.82150.08151.28152.00152.44153.03Market Capitalization $82,447.9$83,143.2$83,809.0$84,209.7$84,451.6$84,777.1Enterprise Value $85,356.4$86,563.7$89,364.4$87,828.4$85,665.1$83,465.7
EV/Adj. EBITDA 44.1x37.1x31.2x25.1x21.2x18.3xP/E 77.4x61.8x51.5x41.7x34.6x30.1xFCF Yield 1.47%1.87%2.00%2.38%2.94%3.07%
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports
Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 10 March 27, 2026
Quanta Services, Inc. Rating History as of 03/26/2026$700$600$500$400$300$200$100Apr 2023Jul 2023Oct 2023Jan 2024Apr 2024Jul 2024Oct 2024Jan 2025Apr 2025Jul 2025Oct 2025Jan 2026
I:Mkt:$338.0002/03/2025OP:$316.0002/24/2025OP:$352.0005/01/2025Mkt:$400.0007/17/2025Mkt:$410.0007/31/2025Mkt:$443.0010/14/2025Mkt:$462.0010/30/2025Mkt:$600.0002/19/2026
Closing PriceTarget PriceOutperform (OP); Market Perform (Mkt); Underperform (Und); Speculative (S); Suspended (Spd); Not Rated (NR); Restricted (R)Source: FactSet, BMO Capital Markets
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Analyst's Certification
I, Ameet Thakkar, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or
issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed in this report.
Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and
their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in
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communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Company Specific Disclosures
Disclosure 1: BMO Capital Markets has undertaken an underwriting liability with respect to Quanta Services, Inc. within the past 12 months.
Disclosure 2: BMO Capital Markets has provided investment banking services for remuneration with respect to Quanta Services, Inc. within the
past 12 months.
Disclosure 3: BMO Capital Markets has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities with respect to Quanta Services, Inc. within the
past 12 months.
Disclosure 4: BMO Capital Markets or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Quanta Services, Inc. within
the past 12 months.
Disclosure 5: BMO Capital Markets or an affiliate received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services within
the past 12 months from Quanta Services, Inc..
Disclosure 6A: Quanta Services, Inc. is a client (or was a client) of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BMO Capital Markets Limited
or an affiliate within the past 12 months: A) Investment Banking Services
Disclosure 6C: Quanta Services, Inc. is a client (or was a client) of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BMO Capital Markets Limited
or an affiliate within the past 12 months: C) Non-Securities Related Services.
Methodology and Risks to Target Price/Valuation for Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR-NYSE)
Methodology: We value PWR utilizing a blended valuation approach that combines our DCF and EV/EBITDA multiple (20.5x 2027E) based
valuations. The implied equity values under this approach are weighted 50%/50% to arrive at our target price. DCF utilizes an 8.0% discount
and 4% terminal growth rate.
Risks: Project execution; project related uncertainty and timing delays; M&A execution; supply chain disruption; labor; inflationary pressure.
Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 11 March 27, 2026
Distribution of Ratings (March 25, 2026)
Rating category BMO rating BMOCM US
Universe*
BMOCM US IB
Clients**
BMOCM US IB
Clients***
BMOCM
Universe****
BMOCM IB
Clients*****
StarMine
Universe~
Buy Outperform 56.1 % 23.6 % 57.0 % 59.7 % 66.3 % 57.7%
Hold Market Perform 41.9 % 23.8 % 43.0 % 39.2 % 33.7 % 37.5%
Sell Underperform 2.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.2 % 0.0 % 4.8%
* Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets Corp. equity research analysts.
** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking services
as percentage within ratings category.
*** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking
services as percentage of Investment Banking clients.
**** Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets equity research analysts.
***** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets has received compensation for Investment Banking services
as percentage of Investment Banking clients.
~ As of April 1, 2019.
Ratings Key (as of October 2016)
We use the following ratings system definitions:
OP = Outperform - Forecast to outperform the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis;
Mkt = Market Perform - Forecast to perform roughly in line with the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis;
Und = Underperform - Forecast to underperform the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis;
(S) = Speculative investment;
Spd = Suspended - Coverage and rating suspended until coverage is reinstated;
NR = No Rated - No rating at this time; and
R = Restricted - Dissemination of research is currently restricted.
The total return potential, target price and the associated time horizon is 12 months unless otherwise stated in each report. BMO Capital Markets'
seven Top 15 lists guide investors to our best ideas according to different objectives (CDN Large Cap, CDN Small Cap, US Large Cap, US Small Cap,
Income, CDN Quant, and US Quant have replaced the Top Pick rating).
Prior BMO Capital Markets Rating System
(April 2013 - October 2016)
http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2013/rating_key_2013_to_2016.pdf
(January 2010 - April 2013)
http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2013/prior_rating_system.pdf
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Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 12 March 27, 2026
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Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 13 March 27, 2026
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Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 14 March 27, 2026
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Quanta Services, Inc. | Page 15 March 27, 2026
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