Research Document
sell-side Macro
ingested 2026-03-31
Source
"Weinberg, Andrew" <aweinberg@btig.com>
Published
2026-03-31
Words
9146
File
No_Real_Flush_Yet._Marking_Down_SPX_Target_to_7300_-_WFC.pdf
Equity Research Beyond the Tape — March 30, 2026 Equity Strategy No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300.    Our Call • Iran War wasn't our base case. We trim YE26 SPX target to 7300 from 7800. • We remain structurally bullish. SPX pricing in more war risk than oil. • We're tactically cautious. No real flush yet. • Lose-lose? Good news: higher rates. Bad news: stagflation.    3/31 (T) 4/1 (W) 4/2 (Th) 4/3 (F) 4/6 (M) Implied move 1.14% 1.21% 1.29% NA 1.58% Catalysts EPS: MKC, FDS Fed: Goolsbee EPS: NKE*, CAG Econ: Retail Sales, PMI, PPI Fed: Miran Econ: NFP, Unemployment Market Closure: Good Friday *From previous day's post-close. Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg See Exhibit 5 for implied moves for the next month. Sentiment: -0.1 (vs. -0.9 last week). See Exhibit 42 for sector sentiment from our Systematic Sector Strategy (L/S +1% MTD). Contrarian Sell: Energy; Contrarian Buy: Software ETF flows: SPX +$1.0B, NDX +$1.4B, Mag 7 +$2.3B, RTY -$2.6B (the second-largest outflows since 2015) Liquidity: 0.8 (flat vs. last week) Complacency: Complacent at 0.6; equity realized vol lower than other asset classes   Incorporating emerging risk. Trimming SPX target to 7300 We remain structurally bullish: 1) the oil shock is likely more mitigated (Exhibit 7-Exhibit 10), 2) valuation has reset (Exhibit 11-Exhibit 12), 3) US > int'l on energy independence (Exhibit 14-Exhibit 15), 4) Hyperscaler FCF inflecting higher (Exhibit 16), 5) re- stocking accelerating amid lower tariffs & supply disruption (Exhibit 19). However, we're incorporating the emerging risk that wasn't our base case heading into the year. Tax returns are also tracking lower than expected (Exhibit 25). 2H inflation remains key risk (Exhibit 23).   Too complacent? No real flush yet Equities have surprisingly seen consistent inflows since the war began, a stark contrast to previous episodes of volatility (Exhibit 2). We suspect investors are hedging instead of selling, expecting a fleeting impact to the economy. There were also more analyst price target upgrades than downgrades in March (Exhibit 22). We concur that the impact will be more mitigated and continue to expect EPS resilience. However, the headwind is building exponentially each day.       Ohsung Kwon, CFA Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Ohsung.Kwon@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8027 John Glascock Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC John.Glascock@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-1145 Kenneth Tsu Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Kingyiu. Tsu@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8497 Zackary Morris Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Zackary.Morris@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-6549 Alec Chapman Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Alec.Chapman@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8235   Exhibit 3 - Sentiment is neutral, with the latest reading at -0.1 WFS Sentiment Indicator (as of 3/27/26) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg Exhibit 4 - Our Complacency Indicator stands at 0.6 WFS Complacency Indicator (as of 3/27/26) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg All estimates/forecasts are as of 3/30/2026 unless otherwise stated. 3/30/2026 18:56:04EDT. Please see page 20 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Beyond the Tape Equity Research Stocks now pricing in bigger risk from war than oil Following last week's sell-off, our war pricing model suggests stocks are now pricing in a bigger risk from war than oil for the first time (Exhibit 11). With NDX de-rating by 29% since the peak (Exhibit 12), we believe a lot has been priced into stocks already. However, other than a firm resolution, we don't see many upside catalysts and see the setup skewed more negatively for stocks. Good news: higher rates; bad news: stagflation narrative.   Own Tech + commodities barbell. Underweight Consumer. Following the big de-rating, Tech provides a better entry point, especially as they are more insulated from the oil shock than economically-sensitive sectors. We also remain bullish commodities and short-cycle Industrials on the re-stocking cycle. Watch the ISM New Orders. Consumer likely remains the biggest loser, especially the low-income exposed companies. Exhibit 2 - No real flush yet. Equity flows have surprisingly been positive in March US equity ETF and mutual fund 4-week flows as % of total fund AUM (2007-3/27/2026) -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0708091011121314151617181920212223242526 US equity ETF and MF flows as % AUM (rolling 4-week)Current level COVIDGFC Dec 2018US creditdowngrade 2022 bear marketLiberation Day Volmageddon Euro crisis Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg See Appendix for more details 2 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research Good news = higher rates; bad news = stagflation narrative We get our first slug of macro data this week that will reveal early impacts from the war. In our view, risks are skewed to the downside around data releases. Good data (i.e., stronger growth, weaker inflation vs. cons) would mean the Fed is less likely to cut while bad data would spur stagflation narratives, giving investors more reason to sell. Note, the NFP reaction day is the largest over the next month, and it's on 4/6 since equity markets are closed on 4/3 when the data is released. The next four Mondays (4/6, 4/13, 4/20, 4/27) all have elevated implied daily moves. This is consistent with expectations of an extended conflict where risk- takers flatten books into the weekend and re-shuffle to start the week. The US 2-yr. yield recently eclipsed the upper end of the Fed's target range last week, which suggests the market thinks the Fed's cutting cycle is over (Exhibit 6 - note, our economists expect two cuts this year). SPX skew fell below the 50th %-ile last week for the first time this year while NDX remains in the 84th %-ile and RTY rose to 87th %-ile (vs. 68th %-ile week prior). Exhibit 5 - S&P 500 implied daily moves vs. 2-year average (as of 3/30/26) Tech EPS / busiest week1Q26 EPS beginsCPI: 1.3% NFP: 1.6%PMI: 1.2% 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8% Apr-30Apr-29Apr-28Apr-27Apr-24Apr-23Apr-22Apr-21Apr-20Apr-17Apr-16Apr-15Apr-14Apr-13Apr-10Apr-09Apr-08Apr-07Apr-06Apr-02Apr-01Mar-31 S&P 500 implied daily move2-year average Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Exhibit 6 - Less friendly Fed is a key 2H risk for stocks US 2-yr yield vs. Fed funds rate (2016-3/26) 0123456 1617181920212223242526 US 2-yr, %Fed funds, % Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Equity Research | 3 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Beyond the Tape Equity Research We are structurally bullish #1: Oil shock impact likely more mitigated vs. history We believe the economic impact from higher oil will be more mitigated vs. history. Over the next 6-9 months, the average consumer will still see a net benefit from OBBB (Exhibit 7). Total spending on energy is also much lower vs. historical oil shocks (Exhibit 8). In the broader economy, US oil intensity has dropped significantly over the past 50 years with just 0.25 barrels of oil consumed per $1000 GDP vs. 0.9 barrels at the peak during the 1973 oil embargo (Exhibit 9). From a company perspective, oil is not a big part of OPEX: even at $100/bbl, we estimate oil to be just 1.4% of OPEX, similar to the late-1990s when oil was $20 (Exhibit 10). We estimate a 1.3% direct EPS hit to S&P 500 EPS from higher OPEX, all else equal, but the indirect impact of weaker demand is likely greater (every 1% sales hit = -2% EPS). Energy EPS likely doubles at $100/bbl (+3.7% benefit to SPX EPS). Exhibit 7 - OBBB benefits will still exceed higher gasoline inflation for the next nine months Net benefit from OBBB minus increased costs due to oil spike based on gasoline futures prices for the next year 60-80% 40-60%20-40% Top 20% Avg Bottom 20%-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000 02/2603/2604/2605/2606/2607/2608/2609/2610/2611/2612/2601/2702/27 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, EIA, Tax Policy Center, BLS, St. Louis Fed Exhibit 8 - Energy expenditure as a % of PCE is the lowest it's ever been heading into an oil shock US energy expenditure % of PCE, 12M average prior to start of shock Yom Kippur Iranian Revolution Iran-Iraq War Gulf WarArab SpringRussia-UkraineIran War 0 2 4 6 8 10 1973197819801990201020222026 US energy expenditure % of PCE, 12M avg prior to event Source: Wells Fargo Securities LLC, Bloomberg 4 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research Exhibit 9 - Oil intensity of the economy has been declining since its peak in 1973 Barrels of oil consumed per $1,000 of real GDP (1965-2024) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 657075808590950005101520 US oil intensity(barrels consumed per $1,000 GDP)Global Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, St. Louis Fed, World Bank, Our World in Data Exhibit 10 - Oil is just 1.4% of total S&P OPEX. We estimate a 75bp increase in OPEX under $100 oil, or -1.3% to EPS Oil & Gas as % of total S&P OPEX (ex-Energy) vs. WTI in 1997 CPI terms (1997-2024) $0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Oil & Gas as % of S&P OPEX (ex-Energy & Utes)WTI adj. for 1997 CPI (RHS) $100 oil Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, BEA #2: Valuation has reset Following last week's sell-off, our war pricing model suggests stocks are now pricing in a bigger risk from war than oil for the first time (Exhibit 11). With NDX de-rating by 29% since the peak (Exhibit 12), we believe a lot has been priced into stocks already. 1/3 of S&P 500 stocks now trade at 1 standard deviation below their 5-yr average on fwd P/E (Exhibit 13). However, other than a firm resolution, we don't see many upside catalysts and see the setup skewed more negatively for stocks. Good news: higher rates, bad news: stagflation narrative. Exhibit 11 - Stocks are now pricing in a bigger risk from war than oil Expected normalization date priced into stocks, oil, prediction markets (3/2-3/30) 2/283/204/94/295/196/86/287/188/78/27 3/23/53/83/113/143/173/203/233/263/29 SPX WTI Polymarket WorldCup USA 250 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, Bloomberg Exhibit 12 - NDX fwd P/E contracted by 29% since Oct NDX fwd. P/E vs. 6m highs (2001-3/30/26) -45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0% 02040608101214161820222426 NDX P/E drawdown from 6m highs Tech Bubble low Fed hikes GFC Euro debt crisis UScredit downgradeDec. 2018COVID 2022 bear market Liberation DaySoftware/Iran Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet Equity Research | 5 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Beyond the Tape Equity Research Exhibit 13 - 1/3 of S&P 500 stocks now trade at 1 standard deviation below their 5-yr average on fwd P/E % of SPX stocks trading 1 SD below their rolling 5-year average forward PE (2006-3/30/2026) 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90% 060708091011121314151617181920212223242526 % of SPX stocks trading 1 SD below their rolling 5-year average fwd. PE Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet #3: US > international on energy independence Despite energy dependence, flows into int'l equities over US have continued and even accelerated post-Iran War. This follows a year of extreme relative outflows from the US (Exhibit 14). We believe that the war was a reminder that energy independence matters and US stocks are higher quality than others (Exhibit 15). As long as the economy remains largely unscathed, the war will likely be a positive event for US stocks, reversing the flows back to the US. Exhibit 14 - One of the most extreme relative outflows from US equities into international US equity ETF and mutual fund 52-week flows as % of total fund AUM relative to international (2015-3/27/2026) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Exhibit 15 - Energy independence matters Energy independence vs. local index stock market performance, post US-Israel strikes on Iran (2/28/26-3/30/26) Canada Brazil Mexico AustraliaUS China IndiaEuropeJapan South Korea R² = 0.4786 -18%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0% -100%0% 100%200%300% Local stock index performance (domestic oil production -imports from Strait of Hormuz) / oil consumption Source: Wells Fargo Securities LLC, Energy Institute, US Energy Information Administration, Bloomberg #4: Hyperscalers' FCF may be inflecting higher We turned bullish Hyperscalers recently after being bearish for months, as their FCF profile could be inflecting higher on stronger top-line (Exhibit 16). 6 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research Our analysts also estimate the IRR of current capacity investments is approaching 20%, justifying the ramp in hyperscaler capacity additions (see Hyperscaler FCF Estimates Stabilizing). The focus is shifting quickly to adoption and monetization. LangChain, an agent building framework, surpassed 200M monthly downloads from ~100M in Dec before the release of OpenClaw (Exhibit 17 - see our analysts' note). Exhibit 16 - Our analysts expect Hyperscaler FCF revision to inflect higher Big Four Hyperscaler (MSFT, META, GOOG, AMZN) CY26-27 FCF consensus estimate revision history and WF current estimates 291 391 272 371 242 331 199 278 98 170139 219 050100150200250300350400450 CY2026E CY2027E 1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q26WFS Estimate TTM Revision: (-66%) TTM Revision: (-57%) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Estimates, FactSet Exhibit 17 - Strong LangChain momentum is a reasonable proxy for developer agent building activity Monthly downloads of LangChain, an agent building framework (2022-02/26) Source: PyPi, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC #5: Re-stocking cycle continues to drive PMI higher We remain bullish commodities and short-cycle Industrials on a continued re-stocking cycle that could potentially accelerate post-tariff ruling and amid supply chain disruption (Exhibit 18). Trucking demand is also at the strongest level since 2022, which should continue to support an upward PMI cycle (Exhibit 19). Exhibit 18 - Re-stocking: Own commodities S&P 500 inventory vs. Bloomberg Commodity Index (1999-2/26) -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 9902050710131518212326 SPX days of inventory (YoY)Bloomberg Commodity Index (YoY, RHS) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet Exhibit 19 - The flatbed trucking market is signaling a further rise in the PMI US flatbed truck market demand index vs. PMI (2014 - 3/26) 40 45 50 55 60 65 050100150200250300350400 14151617181920212223242526 Flatbed truck market demand indexPMI (RHS) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Equity Research | 7 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Beyond the Tape Equity Research ...But tactically cautious Good news = higher rates; bad news = stagflation Despite our longer-term bullish stance, we are tactically cautious given the war uncertainty and the setup heading into macro data. We expect good news will come with higher rates weighing on stocks, while bad news will come with stagflation fears - a lose-lose situation (Exhibit 20). Exhibit 20 - Stagflation often comes with oil shock WTI vs. stagflation periods* (1947-3/30/2026) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 4751555963677175798387919599030711151923 Stagflation WTI Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg *Sub-1% GDP growth, combined with 3%+ and accelerating CPI Exhibit 21 - Stagflation playbook: Energy + Utilities Sector relative returns and hit rate during periods of stagflation (1989-2/26) 25% 50% 75% 100% -6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12% AverageHit Rate (RHS) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg No real capitulation yet Flows data also suggests there hasn't been a real flush that historically marked bottoms (Exhibit 2). Also, while sentiment has quickly shifted negative, there have been more analyst price target upgrades than downgrades in March (Exhibit 22). Exhibit 22 - There were more price target upgrades than downgrades in March Net price target upgrade % (2005 - 3/26) -100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100% 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Net price target upgrade % Liberation DayCOVIDGFC 2022 bear market US creditdowngrade Manufacturing recession Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg 8 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research Key risk: 2H inflation 2H inflation remains key risk (Exhibit 23), especially with mounting growth fear. A simple model using ISM inventories and a proxy for supply chain stress suggests upward pressure to prices relative to today (Exhibit 24 - see Devil's Advocate: Bear Case Is 2H Inflation) Exhibit 23 - Inflation is too much money... US M2 money supply 24m change vs. CPI 24m change (24m lag) - 1962-12/25) Correl: 48% -3%0%3%6%9%12%15%18%21%24%27%30% -5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50% 6266707478828690949802061014182226 M2 CPI (RHS, 24m lag) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Exhibit 24 - ...chasing after too few goods Inventory-implied CPI using ISM inventory and ISM business deliveries % slower, based on 5-year rolling regression (1986-2/26) -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 8689929598010407101316192225 Inventory-implied CPIActual CPI (18m lag) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Smaller tailwind from OBBB tax returns The fiscal tailwind from bigger tax returns is also tracking weaker than initially anticipated (Exhibit 25). Exhibit 25 - Tax return fiscal tailwind is tracking weaker than we anticipated 2026 vs. 2025 individual tax returns (actual) vs. 2026 (initial estimate) (2/1 - 5/1, 2026A data through 3/26/26) - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 Individual tax refunds YTD ($M) 2026 2025 2026 initial expectation Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Dept. of the Treasury, Joint Committee on Taxation estimates Equity Research | 9 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Beyond the Tape Equity Research Incorporating emerging risk: SPX target lowered to 7300 from 7800 Our PRSM framework consists of four drivers of the equity market: Profits, Rates, Sentiment, and Macro. We derive our S&P 500 target by calculating the average z-score of our PRSM models. Backtested forecasts of PRSM were 72% correlated with 12-mo. returns on the S&P 500, using Rates, Sentiment, and Macro models as leading indicators (lagged by 12 months for backtests) and the Profits model as a coincident indicator. For more detail on methodology and backtested results, please refer to Appendix. Our PRSM model currently points to +14% over the next 12 months, resulting in our S&P 500 target of 7300 by year-end 2026. Our forecasts are based on leading indicators as of today and our S&P 500 EPS forecast of $315 in 2026 and $365 in 2027. We use the average price of Feb 28 and March 30 as the base price to forecast the year-end target, smoothing the impact of the sell-off. Exhibit 26 - Our PRSM model yields 7300 on SPX by year-end 2026 PRSM model summary (as of 3/26) Model Z-score Exp. ReturnCorr vs. SPX Profits 0.38 13% 53% Rates 0.86 18% 29%Sentiment NA NA 31%Macro -0.44 9% 31%PRSM 0.27 14% 72% S&P 500 target 12m Forecast 7,3002026 year-end Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet Rates, Sentiment, Macro are leading indicators, while Profits is a coincident indicator. Sentiment z-score only gets included when over 1SD away from avg. Exhibit 27 - Our PRSM model forecasts 14% return over the next 12 months Actual vs. modeled 12-mo. return based on PRSM (1998-3/26; dot=WF forecast) - 72% correlation -40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50% 989900010304050608091011131415161819202123242526 PRSM 12-mo. forecastS&P 500 YoY Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet Leading indicators (Rates, Sentiment, Macro) were lagged by 12 months for the backtest. The forward 12M forecast is based on our 2025-27E EPS forecast and the leading indicators as of today. P: Profits Stocks trade on earnings, and the P (Profits) is the most integral pillar of our PRSM framework. Historically, 12-mo. changes in next 12-mo. (NTM) consensus EPS, which reflect both forward growth expectations and analyst revisions, have shown a 53% correlation to 12-mo. returns on the S&P 500 since 1994 and 63% over the past 20 years. We forecast S&P 500 EPS of $315 in 2026 (+15% YoY) and $365 in 2027 (+16%). 10 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research Exhibit 28 - Profit is a fundamental driver of equities. We expect a continued EPS upcycle ahead. Rolling 5-yr z-score of NTM EPS YoY vs. S&P 500 12-mo. return (1994-1Q27E); dotted = our forecast -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% -4-3-2-101234 949697990002040507081012131516181921232426 Fwd EPS YoY (5-yr z-score)SPX YoY (RHS) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, FactSet Exhibit 29 - We forecast S&P 500 EPS of $315 in 2026 and $365 in 2027 S&P 500 EPS - consensus vs. Wells Fargo Strategy estimates Consensus YoY WF est. YoY 2025 $275 13% $274 13% 1Q26E $71.29 12% $74.00 16% 2Q26E $78.48 17% $78.00 16% 3Q26E $84.36 19% $82.00 16% 4Q26E $87.63 18% $81.00 12% 2026E $320 17% $315 15% 1Q27E $86.53 21% $83.00 12% 2Q27E $91.97 17% $89.00 14% 3Q27E $97.20 15% $95.00 16% 4Q27E $99.20 13% $98.00 21% 2027E $373 16% $365 16% 2028E $414 11% $390 7% Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet R: Rates & Liquidity Our Rates & Liquidity Indicator has been a strong predictor of multiples, especially since the financial crisis, leading YoY changes in fwd. P/E by six months with a 53% correlation since 2010 (Exhibit 30). Buy and Sell signals based on 1 standard deviation cutoffs have historically been robust signals for the market. The S&P 500 rallied 13% on average over six months after Buy signals with a 100% hit rate, while it fell 5% on average after Sell signals, being positive just 35% of the time. The indicator currently is positive, at 0.8, reversing the sharp contraction in 4Q25. See Appendix for methodology. Exhibit 30 - Our Rates & Liquidity Indicator has been a strong predictor of future multiples Wells Fargo Rates & Liquidity Indicator vs. S&P 500 fwd. P/E YoY lagged by six months (1990-3/26) -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% -2 -1 0 1 2 90929496980002040608101214161820222426 WF Rates & Liquidity IndicatorS&P 500 fwd. PE YoY (lagged by 6 months; RHS) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Exhibit 31 - Buy and Sell signals based on 1 std. dev. cutoffs produced robust returns historically S&P 500 vs. Buy/Sell signals based on Wells Fargo Rates & Liquidity Indicator (1983-3/26) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 83858789909294969799010304060810111315171820222425 Sell Buy S&P 500 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Equity Research | 11 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Beyond the Tape Equity Research S: Sentiment Our Sentiment Indicator measures investor sentiment and positioning in equities, and has been a strong contrarian indicator. Buy signals (z-score below -1) have historically produced 10.0% returns on the S&P 500 over the subsequent six months (positive 86% of the time), while sell signals (z-score above 1) resulted in -0.2% returns (positive just 51% of the time) - Exhibit 32. The indicator is a signal indicator rather than a general predictor of the market, and is included in our PRSM model only when signals are triggered. Within the 1 standard deviation band, the indicator was just -2% correlated to subsequent 6-mo. returns of the S&P 500, but outside the band, it showed a strong -46% correlation (contrarian). Currently, the indicator remains neutral at -0.1. For more detail on the methodology and backtested results, refer to Appendix. Exhibit 32 - Sentiment is neutral, with the latest reading at -0.1 Wells Fargo Sentiment Indicator (1998-3/27/26) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 980002040608101214161820222426 Sentiment IndicatorSellBuy Current level Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet Exhibit 33 - Our Sentiment Indicator's Buy/Sell signals produced strong long/short returns Backtested S&P 500 returns following our Sentiment Indicator's Buy/Sell signals since 1998 N1M N3M N6M N12M Buy Avg. 3.2% 7.6% 10.0% 16.3% Median 3.7% 6.6% 8.4% 15.8% Hit rate 78% 90% 86% 84% Sell Avg. (0.9%) (1.3%) (0.2%) 4.4% Median 0.7% (0.1%) 0.4% 8.2% Hit rate 54% 49% 51% 62% Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet Based on 72 Buy signals and 39 Sell signals since 1998 M: Macro Macro, at a high level, can be boiled down into growth and inflation, which comprise the Fed's dual mandate (full employment and steady inflation). For equities, economic growth affects long-term EPS growth (g) and equity risk premium (ERP: confidence in the earnings outlook), while inflation affects the risk-free rate (Rf). Historically, the spread between the ISM Manufacturing PMI (growth proxy) and the Prices Paid index (inflation proxy) has been a reliable leading indicator of stocks. Over the past 20 years, the normalized spread (using 5-yr z-scores) led the S&P 500 by a year with a 38% correlation (Exhibit 34). With the March data yet available, we assumed 54 on the headline PMI and 71 on the Prices Paid index. 12 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research Exhibit 34 - The spread between ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid has been a leading indicator of the S&P 500 Spread between ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid vs. S&P 500 YoY with a year lag (1953-3/26) -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 5357626671758084899398020711162025 ISM PMI - Prices Paid (5-yr z-score)SPX YoY (RHS; lagged by a year) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Equity Research | 13 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Beyond the Tape Equity Research Flows Last week saw $1B of ETF inflows to the S&P 500 companies, with Monday the only day posting positive inflows (Exhibit 35). Communication Services and Financials led inflows, offset by outflows from Materials and Utilities (Exhibit 36). ETF outflows from the Russell 2000 last week were the second largest since 2015 (Exhibit 37). In a rolling 12-month basis, rising flows into RTY over SPX have historically signaled RTY outperformance, with an 80% correlation (Exhibit 38). Exhibit 35 - Last week saw $1B of ETF inflows to the S&P 500 companies ETF flows into the S&P 500 as % market cap (2015-3/27/2026) -0.10% -0.05% 0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 151617181920212223242526 Weekly flows as % market cap4-week moving avg Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg Exhibit 36 - Communication Services and Financials led inflows, offset by outflows from Materials and Utilities ETF flows as % market cap (as of 3/27/2026) -0.04%-0.02%0.00%0.02%0.04%0.06% Comm. Svcs.FinancialsEnergyIndustrialsTechSPXReal EstateCons. Disc.StaplesHealth CareUtilitiesMaterials Weekly flows as % market cap4-week moving avg Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg Exhibit 37 - ETF outflows from RTY last week were the second largest since 2015 ETF flows into the Russell 2000 as % market cap (2015-3/27/2026) -0.10% -0.05% 0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 151617181920212223242526 Weekly flows as % market cap4-week moving avg Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg Exhibit 38 - ETF inflows into RTY relative to SPX = RTY outperformance 12-mo. ETF flows into RTY relative to SPX as % market cap vs. RTY/ SPX performance (2015-3/27/2026) 0.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.70 -1.1%-0.9%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%-0.1%0.1%0.3%0.5% 151617181920212223242526 12-mo. ETF flows as % market cap: RTY relative to SPXRTY/SPX (RHS) correlation= 0.8 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg 14 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research Exhibit 39 - ETF flows to Mag 7 have been weakening over the last 6 months 6-mo. ETF flows to Mag 7 as % market cap relative to SPX (2006-3/27/26) -0.4% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 060708091011121314151617181920212223242526 ETF flows to Mag 7 as % market cap relative to SPX Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet Exhibit 40 - Active long-only outflows from Mag 7 have accelerated LTM active long-only flows to Mag 7 vs. active weight relative to SPX (2015-2/26) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 -80,000-60,000-40,000-20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000 151617181920212223242526 LTM active LO flows ($M)Active weight (RHS) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet Active weight of 1 indicates funds are equal-weight the stock, while a ratio above 1 indicates overweight and vice versa for a ratio below 1. Exhibit 41 - ETF flows drive performance Year-to-date ETF flows as % market cap vs. stock performance (as of 3/27) Energy Materials Industrials UtilitiesRTYReal EstateHealth CareSPX Staples TechFinancials NDX Cons. Disc.Mag 7 Comm. Svcs. R² = 0.9088 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6% YTD return YTD ETF flows as % market cap Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg Sector Sentiment Software remains as Contrarian Buy, with sentiment at -2.6, while Commercial & Professional Services have softened and triggered Buy signals at -1.9. On the Sell side, Energy remains elevated at 2.5, while Tech Hardware (1.6) has triggered a Sell signal. See Appendix for more details. Equity Research | 15 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Beyond the Tape Equity Research Exhibit 42 - Most bullish industry group is Energy, while most bearish is Software Industry group relative sentiment (as of 3/27/2026) 0 SentimentRSI 50D vs. 200D maAvg diff % vs. 50D maAvg diff % vs. 200D maETF Flows Energy 2.5 2.5 1.8 3.3 2.9 1.8 Tech Hardware 1.6 0.8 0.7 3.1 5.1 -1.5 Materials 1.1 0.3 1.8 0.6 1.8 1.0 Capital Goods 1.0 0.2 2.6 -0.5 1.0 1.7 Utilities 0.7 0.7 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.6 Semis 0.6 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 1.4 1.4 Transportation 0.6 0.0 0.8 -0.5 1.0 1.6 Biopharma & Life Sciences0.4 -0.1 1.8 -0.5 0.4 0.5 Telecom 0.3 1.2 0.0 1.9 0.7 -2.2 Staples Retail 0.3 0.6 1.4 0.2 0.7 -1.3 REITs 0.1 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 1.2 Banks -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.4 0.1 -1.6 Autos -0.3 -0.4 0.3 -0.8 -0.2 -0.5 Food, Beverage & Tobacco-0.4 0.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -1.0 Insurance -0.5 0.5 -0.9 0.1 -1.1 -1.4 Durables & Apparel -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.1 Consumer Svcs -0.8 -0.3 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -0.8 Media & Ent. -0.8 -1.5 0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.7 Household & Personal Products-0.9 -0.7 -0.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 Health Care Equip & Svcs-1.0 -1.0 -1.3 -1.3 -1.8 0.6 Financial Svcs -1.1 0.1 -1.0 -1.1 -2.1 -1.2 Discretionary Retail -1.1 0.0 -1.2 -1.7 -1.7 -1.0 Commercial & Prof Svcs -1.9 -0.7 -3.2 -1.9 -3.5 0.0 Software -2.6 -1.1 -5.4 -1.6 -4.5 -0.4 Input variables Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg Exhibit 43 - Buy signals are triggered for Software and Commercial & Professional Services, while Sell signals are triggered for Energy and Tech Hardware Industry group relative sentiment (as of 3/27/2026) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 EnergyTech HardwareMaterialsCapital GoodsUtilitiesSemisTransportationBiopharma & Life SciencesTelecomStaples RetailREITsBanksAutosFood, Beverage & TobaccoInsuranceDurables & ApparelConsumer SvcsMedia & Ent.Household & Personal ProductsHealth Care Equip & SvcsFinancial SvcsDiscretionary RetailCommercial & Prof SvcsSoftware Sentiment Buy Sell Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg 16 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research Appendix Sentiment Indicator Our Sentiment Indicator is a contrarian indicator, signaling extreme bullishness or bearishness in the market. The indicator is generated by taking the average z-score of the following five indicators: • S&P Price: 6-month z-score on 1-month S&P price changes. A sharp rise or fall in equities driven by momentum indicates extreme bullishness or bearishness that can reverse. • Put/Call: 6-month z-score on a 3-month change in the CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio Index. A rising ratio indicates more put contracts being bought relative to calls, i.e., rising bearishness. Extremely high or low levels of the ratio signal extreme bearishness or bullishness that can reverse. • Net Futures Positions: 6-month z-score on the CFTC net non-commercial futures contracts on the S&P 500. A positive value indicates net long positions in futures contracts, while a negative value indicates net short positions. Extreme levels indicate extreme bullishness or bearishness that can reverse. • Fund Flows: 6-month z-score on net US equity ETF and mutual fund flows as a percentage of total fund AUM. Extreme inflows or outflows indicate extreme bullishness or bearishness that can reverse. Exhibit 44 - Sentiment is neutral, with the latest reading at -0.1 Sentiment Indicator (as of 3/27/2026) Changes Indicator Current 3m 6m 12m SPX Price -3.8 -3.5 -3.8 -2.0 Put-Call 0.4 1.0 0.1 2.1 Futures 1.7 -0.9 2.5 2.4 ETF Flows 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.1 Average -0.1 -0.6 0.1 0.9 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet Exhibit 45 - Variables in our Sentiment Indicator are largely uncorrelated to each other Correlations among Sentiment Indicator variables since 1998 (as of 3/27/2026) SPX Price Put-Call Futures ETF Flows SPX Price 100% 44% -13% -16% Put-Call 44% 100% -8% 0% Futures -13% -8% 100% 5% ETF Flows -16% 0% 5% 100% Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet Sector Sentiment Indicator Our Sector Sentiment Indicator measures investor sentiment at the industry group level relative to the S&P 500. It is a contrarian indicator signaling extreme bullishness or bearishness. Buy signals (z- score below -1.5) have historically produced +1.1% returns relative to the S&P 500 over the next month (positive 59% of the time), while sell signals (z-score above 1.5) resulted in -1.0% returns (positive 40% of the time) - Exhibit 46. The indicator is constructed by taking the average z-score of the following five indicators: • RSI: Expanding z-score on the 14-day RSI of the S&P 500 industry group GICS level 2 index over the SPX index. It is used to identify overbought or oversold conditions at the industry group level relative to the S&P 500. • 50D vs. 200D moving average: Expanding z-score on the gap between the 50D and 200D moving average of the S&P 500 industry group GICS level 2 index over the SPX index. Extreme gaps tend to reverse when momentum becomes overextended. • Average % vs. 50D moving average: Expanding z-score on the spread between 1) the average gap of the stock prices vs. the 50D moving averages across the constituents within the industry group and 2) the corresponding average gap for all SPX stocks. When constituents reach extreme levels relative to their short-term trends, breadth could reverse as excessive optimism or pessimism unwinds. • Average % vs. 200D moving average: Expanding z-score on the spread between 1) the average gap of the stock prices vs. the 200D moving averages across the constituents within the industry group and 2) the corresponding average gap for all SPX stocks. When constituents reach extreme Equity Research | 17 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Beyond the Tape Equity Research levels relative to their long-term trends, breadth could revert as prolonged overextension or capitulation unwinds. • ETF Flows: 6-month z-score on net 52-week equity ETF flows as a percentage of market cap relative to S&P 500. Extreme inflows or outflows indicate extreme bullishness or bearishness that can reverse. We track ETF flows at the industry group level by monitoring flows across 460 global ETFs with $8T in total AUM, allocating those flows to individual stocks based on ETF holdings, and then aggregating the stock-level flows to GICS level 2 industry groups. Exhibit 46 - Buy and Sell signals on our Sector Sentiment Indicator have been robust for most industry groups Industry group relative returns following Buy & Sell signals (2007-present) N1M Overall Media & Ent. Telecom Autos Disc. Retail Durables & Apparel Consumer Svcs Staples Retail Food, Beverage & Tobacco Household & Personal Products Energy Banks Financial Svcs Insurance Health Care Equip & Svcs Biopharma & Life Sciences Capital Goods Commercial & Prof SvcsTransportation Semis Software Tech Hardware Materials REITs Utilities Buy Avg. 1.0% -0.2% 1.0% 3.4% 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% -0.4% 1.3% -0.7% 3.8% 2.5% 2.5% 0.8% 1.0% -2.3% 0.8% 3.6% -1.9% 2.7% 0.8% -0.1% 0.6% Median 0.6% -0.5% 1.1% 4.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% -0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2.1% 1.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% -1.3% -0.2% 3.0% 0.6% 3.8% 1.2% -1.5% -0.1% Hit rate 58% 38% 59% 65% 50% 61% 67% 67% 67% 40% 61% 50% 56% 77% 88% 64% 50% 29% 50% 75% 65% 71% 71% 39% 46% Sell Avg. -1.0% -0.6% -2.0% -2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -3.2% -0.2% -1.1% -2.0% -0.4% -1.1% -0.9% -1.0% -0.6% -2.3% -0.7% -0.7% -1.2% -0.5% -0.3% -4.1% -4.8% -0.9% Median -0.9% -0.2% -1.9% -4.3% 0.1% 0.1% -0.5% -1.6% -1.2% -1.2% -3.5% -1.3% -1.3% -0.8% -0.5% -0.9% -2.7% -1.1% -0.2% -1.2% -0.2% 0.2% -4.0% -5.5% -1.9% Hit rate 40% 50% 38% 26% 52% 52% 39% 24% 45% 43% 39% 38% 32% 42% 33% 45% 23% 37% 50% 38% 48% 55% 0% 0% 44% N2M Buy Avg. 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 11.3% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% -0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 7.6% -3.4% 8.0% 3.8% 3.1% 0.9% 1.7% -3.1% 2.7% 6.6% 0.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% Median 1.1% 0.7% 1.0% 11.3% 0.9% 2.1% 2.0% -0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 5.2% -1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% -3.1% 2.5% 4.2% 0.0% 1.4% 2.0% -1.3% 1.6% Hit rate 60% 63% 53% 71% 58% 64% 67% 47% 66% 55% 72% 44% 56% 56% 83% 60% 62% 24% 67% 88% 46% 71% 65% 48% 62% Sell Avg. -1.8% 0.2% -6.3% -5.3% -1.5% -1.5% -0.3% -5.5% -0.3% -1.9% -3.9% -0.3% -0.3% -3.7% -2.2% -1.9% -1.1% -1.4% 0.0% -1.5% 0.1% 1.4% -5.5% -8.0% -1.6% Median -0.7% 0.8% -6.7% -6.4% -0.3% -1.2% 0.6% -6.0% -0.8% -1.1% -6.6% 0.6% -0.3% -2.2% -0.1% -2.9% -0.8% 0.2% -0.2% -0.7% 0.5% 1.6% -3.5% -7.9% -0.6% Hit rate 41% 70% 21% 21% 44% 30% 61% 19% 45% 33% 30% 59% 47% 21% 48% 39% 23% 53% 38% 38% 54% 68% 0% 0% 30% N3M Buy Avg. 1.8% 1.4% 0.5% 4.2% 2.9% 1.5% 1.1% -1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 6.5% -5.1% 11.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.1% 1.5% -3.5% 4.7% 9.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.8% -0.3% 0.7% Median 0.9% 1.4% -0.4% 1.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.6% -0.2% 1.4% 0.1% 3.0% -4.6% -0.9% -0.6% 2.1% 1.8% 0.8% -5.1% 3.2% 6.9% 3.4% 3.7% 1.6% -0.7% 1.3% Hit rate 57% 56% 47% 53% 75% 48% 56% 40% 62% 51% 56% 22% 44% 48% 83% 76% 62% 23% 78% 94% 69% 57% 71% 45% 54% Sell Avg. -2.2% 2.1% -9.2% -9.7% -1.6% -1.7% -0.4% -8.3% 0.8% -1.9% 0.0% -1.8% 0.8% -6.0% -3.7% -2.0% -3.3% -2.7% -2.1% -0.3% 0.6% 1.6% -5.3% -10.5% -0.6% Median -1.6% 2.3% -6.8% -6.6% -1.8% -0.7% -0.7% -5.8% 0.4% -0.5% -2.4% -1.3% 0.0% -6.0% -2.9% -4.3% -2.7% -2.2% -2.5% 0.0% 0.2% 2.3% -3.6% -11.1% -0.6% Hit rate 39% 80% 17% 21% 44% 26% 45% 5% 50% 48% 39% 50% 42% 16% 37% 39% 31% 27% 25% 50% 50% 64% 0% 0% 44% Relative performance vs. SPX Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg Complacency Indicator Our Complacency Indicator measures the level of complacency in the equity market compared to other asset classes, including bond, dollar, gold, and oil. The indicator shows the 6-month z-score on the spread between 21-day realized volatility in the equity market vs. modeled volatility. We calculate the modeled volatility by running a rolling 6-month regression on the 21-day realized equity market volatility against the realized volatility of bond, dollar, gold, and oil. Exhibit 47 - Our Complacency Indicator stands at 0.6 Wells Fargo Complacency Indicator (1995-3/27/26) -5-4-3-2-101234 95979901030507091113151719212325 Too volatile <---> Too complacent Complacency Indicator+/- 2SD Current Level Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Exhibit 48 - Extreme complacency and extreme volatility historically led to higher and lower volatility, respectively Change in realized volatility after extreme complacency/volatility based on 2SD cutoffs on our Complacency Indicator (since 1995) 1-mo. 3-mo. 6-mo. 12-mo. Extreme complacency Avg. chg. in vol. (ppt) 0.3% 1.1% 1.3% 4.4% Median chg. in vol. (ppt) 1.0% 0.6% 2.3% 3.7% % higher vol. 57% 59% 66% 73% Extreme vol. Avg. chg. in vol. (ppt) (3.4%) (7.5%) (8.0%) (9.8%) Median chg. in vol. (ppt) (5.0%) (6.5%) (5.1%) (6.6%) % higher vol. 21% 18% 27% 25% Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg Rates & Liquidity Indicator Our Rates & Liquidity Indicator captures overall financial conditions affecting the equity market by taking the average of the 5-yr z-scores of the four variables that measure rates and liquidity: 18 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research • M0 Money Supply: M0 is the monetary base of the economy in the most liquid form, defined as the sum of currency in circulation and bank reserve balances at the Fed. We take the 5-yr z-score of the 6-mo. change in M0 to measure liquidity conditions in financial markets. • PMI vs. rates: We use the ISM Manufacturing PMI as a proxy for growth and compare that to the 10-yr yield to measure the tightness of rates environment in relation to growth. We take the spread between 5-yr z-scores of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the 10-yr yield. • Mortgage spread vs. the Fed funds rate: The mortgage spread vs. the Fed funds rate captures both the perceived credit risk of the US consumer, as well as the term premium between the 30-yr Tsy yield and the policy rate. We take the 5-yr z-score of the spread between the 30-yr mortgage rate and the Fed funds rate. • SOFR spread vs. the Fed funds rate: The secured overnight financial rate spread vs. the Fed funds rate measures the credit and liquidity risks in the banking system. We take the 5-yr z-score of the 6-mo. change in the spread to gauge liquidity conditions of financial institutions. Exhibit 49 - Our Liquidity Indicator is inching toward the Buy signal Wells Fargo Rates & Liquidity Indicator vs. SPX fwd. P/E with a 6m lag (1990-present); dotted line = WF projection out to June 2026 -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% -2 -1 0 1 2 90929496980002040608101214161820222426 WF Rates & Liquidity IndicatorS&P 500 fwd. PE YoY (lagged by 6 months; RHS) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg Dotted line assumes 1) $40B/mo. of Fed balance sheet expansion through Apr and $25B/mo. through Jun, 2) TGA of $850B/$1,050B/ $925B/$900B in March/April/May/June, and 3) flat SOFR spread vs. Fed Funds Rate Exhibit 50 - Variables in our Rates & Liquidity Indicator are largely uncorrelated to each other Correlations among Rates & Liquidity Indicator variables since 1983 (as of 2/26) M0 PMI - Rates Mortgage spread vs. FFR SOFR vs. FFR M0 100% 10% -37% -10% PMI - Rates 10% 100% -9% 19% Mortgage spread vs. FFR -37% -9% 100% 0% SOFR vs. FFR -10% 19% 0% 100% Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet Equity Research | 19 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Beyond the Tape Equity Research Required Disclosures I, Ohsung Kwon, certify that: 1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report. To view analyst certifications and other important disclosures, please go to the report-specific links included in the report summary sections above. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. Additional Information Available Upon Request STOCK RATING OW=Overweight: Total return on stock expected to be 10%+ over the next 12 months. (BUY) EW=Equal Weight: Total return on stock expected to be -10% to +10% over the next 12 months. (HOLD) UW=Underweight: Total return on stock expected to lag the Overweight- and Equal Weight-rated stocks within the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. (SELL) NR=Not Rated: The rating and price target has been removed due to lack of fundamental basis to support the recommendation or due to legal, regulatory or company policy considerations. FINRA regulation requires member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories: Buy, Hold and Sell. In accordance with FINRA regulation and solely to satisfy those disclosure requirements in the ratings distribution table and ratings history chart contained in these Required Disclosures, our rating of Overweight corresponds to a Buy rating; Equal Weight corresponds to a Hold rating; and Underweight corresponds to a Sell rating. As of March 29, 2026 53.5% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Overweight. (BUY) 39.4% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Equal Weight. (HOLD) 7.1% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Underweight. (SELL) Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 42.6% of its Equity Research Overweight-rated companies. (BUY) Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 39.3% of its Equity Research Equal Weight-rated companies. (HOLD) Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 39.7% of its Equity Research Underweight-rated companies. (SELL) Important Disclosure for U.S. Clients This report was prepared by Wells Fargo Securities Global Research Department (“WFS Research”) personnel associated with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC ("Wells Fargo Securities"). WFS Research may, from time to time, provide clients with short-term trading views in its research reports regarding subject companies on which Wells Fargo Securities currently has equity research coverage. A short-term trading view offers a view on how the market price of a subject company’s common equity may trend in absolute terms during the 30 days following the date of the short-term trading view. A short-term trading view on a subject company’s common equity does not impact our fundamental investment rating or price target for that company, which reflect our view of how the subject company’s common equity may perform over a one-year period. A short-term trading view may reach a different conclusion than the firm’s fundamental investment rating and price target for a subject company and, therefore, short-term trading views could result in short-term price movements that are contrary to our fundamental investment rating and price target. Short-term trading views are not ratings and the firm does not intend, nor undertakes any obligation, to maintain, update or close out short-term trading views. Short-term trading views may not be suitable for all investors and have not been tailored to individual investor circumstances and objectives, and investors should make their own independent decisions regarding any short-term trading views discussed in WFS Research reports. Important Disclosure for International Clients United Kingdom – The securities and related financial instruments described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. For recipients in the United Kingdom, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a UK incorporated investment firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For the purposes of Section 21 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (the “Act”), the content of this report has been approved by WFSIL, an authorised person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Directive 2014/65/EU (“MiFID2”). The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. For the purposes of the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority's rules, this report constitutes impartial investment research. EEA – The securities and related financial instruments described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by WFSIL or Wells Fargo Securities Europe S.A. (“WFSE”). WFSE is a French incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution and the Autorité des marchés financiers. WFSE does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Directive 2014/65/EU (“MiFID2”). This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. 20 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research Australia – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited are exempt from the requirements to hold an Australian financial services license in respect of the financial services they provide to wholesale clients in Australia. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is regulated under the laws of the United States and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited is regulated under laws of the United Kingdom. All such laws differ from Australian laws. Any offer or documentation provided to Australian recipients by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or Wells Fargo Securities International Limited in the course of providing the financial services will be prepared in accordance with the laws of the United States or United Kingdom and not Australian laws. Canada – This report is distributed in Canada by Wells Fargo Securities Canada, Ltd., a registered investment dealer in Canada and member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and, Member – Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts may participate in company events such as site visits but are generally prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the subject companies for associated expenses unless pre-authorized by members of Research Management. China – Strictly Private and Confidential. For the sole use of the recipient only. Not to be copied or redistributed within the People’s Republic of China. Brazil - This report was not created for distribution to investors resident in Brazil or to the Brazilian public in general. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a broker-dealer registered in United States of America with and regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is not registered in Brazil and its products, including this report and the securities mentioned in this report, have not been and will not be publicly issued, placed, distributed, offered or negotiated in the Brazilian capital markets, and, as a result, have not been and will not be registered with the Brazilian Securities Commission (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, the CVM). The offer of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC's products, including this report and any securities mentioned in this report, is intended only for residents in the countries in which Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is authorized to operate. About Wells Fargo Securities Wells Fargo Securities is the trade name for the capital markets and investment banking services of Wells Fargo & Company and its subsidiaries, including but not limited to Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of NYSE, FINRA, NFA and SIPC, Wells Fargo Prime Services, LLC, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC, Wells Fargo Securities Canada, Ltd., a member of IIROC and CIPF, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This report is for your information only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the securities or instruments named or described in the report. This report, including any ratings it contains, does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should seek professional advice, including tax advice, to determine whether any advice or recommendation in the attached research report is suitable for their particular circumstances. The information in this report is provided as of the date of the report and has been obtained or derived from sources believed by WFS Research to be reliable, but WFS Research does not represent that this information is accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates contained in this report represent the judgment of WFS Research, at the time that the report was published, and are subject to change without notice. All Wells Fargo Securities research reports published by WFS Research are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Clients may also receive our research via third party vendors. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third- party aggregators, nor is WFS Research responsible for the redistribution of our research by third-party aggregators. Equity Strategists focus on investment themes across the equity markets and sectors. Any discussion within an Equity Strategy report of specific securities is not intended to provide a fundamental analysis of any individual company described therein. The information provided in Equity Strategy reports is subject to change without notice, and investors should not expect continuing information or additional reports relating to any security described therein. Clients of WFS Research are permitted to store, display, analyze, modify, reformat, copy, duplicate and reproduce this report and the information contained within it for their own internal use and for no other purpose. Without the prior written consent of Wells Fargo Securities, no part of this report may be copied, duplicated or reproduced in any form by any other means. In addition, this report and its contents may not be redistributed or transmitted to any other party in whole or in part, directly or indirectly, including by means of any AI Technologies (defined below) through which this report or any portion thereof may be accessible by any third-party. “AI Technologies” means any deep learning, machine learning, and other artificial intelligence technologies, including without limitation any and all (a) proprietary algorithms, software, or systems that make use of or employ neural networks, statistical learning algorithms (such as linear and logistic regression, support vector machines, random forests or k-means clustering) or reinforcement learning, or curated data sets accessible by any of the foregoing or (b) proprietary embodied artificial intelligence and related hardware or equipment. In addition, certain text, images, graphics, screenshots and audio or video clips included in this report are protected by copyright law and owned by Wells Fargo Securities, its affiliates or one or more third parties (collectively, “Protected Content”). Protected Content is made available to clients by Wells Fargo under license or otherwise in accordance with applicable law. Any use or publication of Protected Content included in this report for purposes other than fair use requires permission from Wells Fargo Securities or, in the case of content attributed to any third party, the third-party copyright owner. You may not alter, obscure, or remove any copyright, trademark or any other notices attached to or contained within this report. These Conditions of Use are not intended to, and will not, transfer or grant any rights in or to the report or the information contained within it other than those rights that are specifically described herein. All rights not expressly granted herein are reserved by Wells Fargo Securities or the third-party providers from whom Wells Fargo Securities has obtained the applicable information. Any external website links included in this publication are not maintained, controlled or operated by Wells Fargo Securities. Wells Fargo Securities does not provide the products and services on these websites and the views expressed on these websites do not necessarily represent those of Wells Fargo Securities. Please review the applicable privacy and security policies and terms and conditions for the website you are visiting. Copyright © 2026 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED - MAY LOSE VALUE - NO BANK GUARANTEE Equity Research | 21 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further.