sell-side
Macro
ingested 2026-03-31
Source
"Weinberg, Andrew" <aweinberg@btig.com>
Published
2026-03-31
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9146
File
No_Real_Flush_Yet._Marking_Down_SPX_Target_to_7300_-_WFC.pdf
Equity Research
Beyond the Tape — March 30, 2026
Equity Strategy
No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target
to 7300.
Our Call
• Iran War wasn't our base case. We trim YE26 SPX target to 7300 from 7800.
• We remain structurally bullish. SPX pricing in more war risk than oil.
• We're tactically cautious. No real flush yet.
• Lose-lose? Good news: higher rates. Bad news: stagflation.
3/31 (T) 4/1 (W) 4/2 (Th) 4/3 (F) 4/6 (M)
Implied move 1.14% 1.21% 1.29% NA 1.58%
Catalysts EPS: MKC, FDS
Fed: Goolsbee
EPS: NKE*, CAG
Econ: Retail
Sales, PMI, PPI
Fed: Miran
Econ: NFP,
Unemployment
Market Closure:
Good Friday
*From previous day's post-close.
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
See Exhibit 5 for implied moves for the next month.
Sentiment: -0.1 (vs. -0.9 last week). See Exhibit 42 for sector sentiment from our
Systematic Sector Strategy (L/S +1% MTD). Contrarian Sell: Energy; Contrarian Buy:
Software
ETF flows: SPX +$1.0B, NDX +$1.4B, Mag 7 +$2.3B, RTY -$2.6B (the second-largest
outflows since 2015)
Liquidity: 0.8 (flat vs. last week)
Complacency: Complacent at 0.6; equity realized vol lower than other asset classes
Incorporating emerging risk. Trimming SPX target to 7300
We remain structurally bullish: 1) the oil shock is likely more mitigated (Exhibit 7-Exhibit
10), 2) valuation has reset (Exhibit 11-Exhibit 12), 3) US > int'l on energy independence
(Exhibit 14-Exhibit 15), 4) Hyperscaler FCF inflecting higher (Exhibit 16), 5) re-
stocking accelerating amid lower tariffs & supply disruption (Exhibit 19). However, we're
incorporating the emerging risk that wasn't our base case heading into the year. Tax
returns are also tracking lower than expected (Exhibit 25). 2H inflation remains key risk
(Exhibit 23).
Too complacent? No real flush yet
Equities have surprisingly seen consistent inflows since the war began, a stark contrast
to previous episodes of volatility (Exhibit 2). We suspect investors are hedging instead of
selling, expecting a fleeting impact to the economy. There were also more analyst price
target upgrades than downgrades in March (Exhibit 22). We concur that the impact will be
more mitigated and continue to expect EPS resilience. However, the headwind is building
exponentially each day.
Ohsung Kwon, CFA
Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Ohsung.Kwon@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8027
John Glascock
Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
John.Glascock@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-1145
Kenneth Tsu
Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Kingyiu. Tsu@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8497
Zackary Morris
Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Zackary.Morris@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-6549
Alec Chapman
Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Alec.Chapman@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8235
Exhibit 3 - Sentiment is neutral, with the
latest reading at -0.1
WFS Sentiment Indicator (as of 3/27/26)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet,
Bloomberg
Exhibit 4 - Our Complacency Indicator
stands at 0.6
WFS Complacency Indicator (as of 3/27/26)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
All estimates/forecasts are as of 3/30/2026 unless otherwise stated. 3/30/2026 18:56:04EDT. Please see page 20 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could
affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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Stocks now pricing in bigger risk from war than oil
Following last week's sell-off, our war pricing model suggests stocks are now pricing in a
bigger risk from war than oil for the first time (Exhibit 11). With NDX de-rating by 29%
since the peak (Exhibit 12), we believe a lot has been priced into stocks already. However,
other than a firm resolution, we don't see many upside catalysts and see the setup skewed
more negatively for stocks. Good news: higher rates; bad news: stagflation narrative.
Own Tech + commodities barbell. Underweight Consumer.
Following the big de-rating, Tech provides a better entry point, especially as they are more
insulated from the oil shock than economically-sensitive sectors. We also remain bullish
commodities and short-cycle Industrials on the re-stocking cycle. Watch the ISM New
Orders. Consumer likely remains the biggest loser, especially the low-income exposed
companies.
Exhibit 2 - No real flush yet. Equity flows have surprisingly been positive in March
US equity ETF and mutual fund 4-week flows as % of total fund AUM (2007-3/27/2026)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0708091011121314151617181920212223242526
US equity ETF and MF flows as % AUM (rolling 4-week)Current level
COVIDGFC
Dec 2018US creditdowngrade
2022 bear marketLiberation Day
Volmageddon
Euro crisis
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
See Appendix for more details
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Good news = higher rates; bad news = stagflation narrative
We get our first slug of macro data this week that will reveal early impacts from the war. In our view,
risks are skewed to the downside around data releases. Good data (i.e., stronger growth, weaker
inflation vs. cons) would mean the Fed is less likely to cut while bad data would spur stagflation
narratives, giving investors more reason to sell.
Note, the NFP reaction day is the largest over the next month, and it's on 4/6 since equity markets
are closed on 4/3 when the data is released. The next four Mondays (4/6, 4/13, 4/20, 4/27) all have
elevated implied daily moves. This is consistent with expectations of an extended conflict where risk-
takers flatten books into the weekend and re-shuffle to start the week.
The US 2-yr. yield recently eclipsed the upper end of the Fed's target range last week, which suggests
the market thinks the Fed's cutting cycle is over (Exhibit 6 - note, our economists expect two cuts this
year).
SPX skew fell below the 50th %-ile last week for the first time this year while NDX remains in the 84th
%-ile and RTY rose to 87th %-ile (vs. 68th %-ile week prior).
Exhibit 5 - S&P 500 implied daily moves vs. 2-year average (as
of 3/30/26)
Tech EPS / busiest week1Q26 EPS beginsCPI: 1.3%
NFP: 1.6%PMI: 1.2%
0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%
Apr-30Apr-29Apr-28Apr-27Apr-24Apr-23Apr-22Apr-21Apr-20Apr-17Apr-16Apr-15Apr-14Apr-13Apr-10Apr-09Apr-08Apr-07Apr-06Apr-02Apr-01Mar-31
S&P 500 implied daily move2-year average
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
Exhibit 6 - Less friendly Fed is a key 2H risk for stocks
US 2-yr yield vs. Fed funds rate (2016-3/26)
0123456
1617181920212223242526
US 2-yr, %Fed funds, %
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
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We are structurally bullish
#1: Oil shock impact likely more mitigated vs. history
We believe the economic impact from higher oil will be more mitigated vs. history. Over the next 6-9
months, the average consumer will still see a net benefit from OBBB (Exhibit 7). Total spending on
energy is also much lower vs. historical oil shocks (Exhibit 8).
In the broader economy, US oil intensity has dropped significantly over the past 50 years with just
0.25 barrels of oil consumed per $1000 GDP vs. 0.9 barrels at the peak during the 1973 oil embargo
(Exhibit 9).
From a company perspective, oil is not a big part of OPEX: even at $100/bbl, we estimate oil to be just
1.4% of OPEX, similar to the late-1990s when oil was $20 (Exhibit 10).
We estimate a 1.3% direct EPS hit to S&P 500 EPS from higher OPEX, all else equal, but the indirect
impact of weaker demand is likely greater (every 1% sales hit = -2% EPS). Energy EPS likely doubles at
$100/bbl (+3.7% benefit to SPX EPS).
Exhibit 7 - OBBB benefits will still exceed higher gasoline
inflation for the next nine months
Net benefit from OBBB minus increased costs due to oil spike based
on gasoline futures prices for the next year
60-80% 40-60%20-40%
Top 20%
Avg
Bottom 20%-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000
02/2603/2604/2605/2606/2607/2608/2609/2610/2611/2612/2601/2702/27
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, EIA, Tax Policy Center,
BLS, St. Louis Fed
Exhibit 8 - Energy expenditure as a % of PCE is the lowest it's
ever been heading into an oil shock
US energy expenditure % of PCE, 12M average prior to start of
shock
Yom Kippur
Iranian Revolution
Iran-Iraq War
Gulf WarArab SpringRussia-UkraineIran War
0
2
4
6
8
10
1973197819801990201020222026
US energy expenditure % of PCE, 12M avg prior to event
Source: Wells Fargo Securities LLC, Bloomberg
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Exhibit 9 - Oil intensity of the economy has been declining
since its peak in 1973
Barrels of oil consumed per $1,000 of real GDP (1965-2024)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
657075808590950005101520
US oil intensity(barrels consumed per $1,000 GDP)Global
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, St. Louis Fed, World Bank, Our World
in Data
Exhibit 10 - Oil is just 1.4% of total S&P OPEX. We estimate a
75bp increase in OPEX under $100 oil, or -1.3% to EPS
Oil & Gas as % of total S&P OPEX (ex-Energy) vs. WTI in 1997 CPI
terms (1997-2024)
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Oil & Gas as % of S&P OPEX (ex-Energy & Utes)WTI adj. for 1997 CPI (RHS)
$100 oil
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, BEA
#2: Valuation has reset
Following last week's sell-off, our war pricing model suggests stocks are now pricing in a bigger risk
from war than oil for the first time (Exhibit 11). With NDX de-rating by 29% since the peak (Exhibit 12),
we believe a lot has been priced into stocks already. 1/3 of S&P 500 stocks now trade at 1 standard
deviation below their 5-yr average on fwd P/E (Exhibit 13).
However, other than a firm resolution, we don't see many upside catalysts and see the setup skewed
more negatively for stocks. Good news: higher rates, bad news: stagflation narrative.
Exhibit 11 - Stocks are now pricing in a bigger risk from war
than oil
Expected normalization date priced into stocks, oil, prediction
markets (3/2-3/30)
2/283/204/94/295/196/86/287/188/78/27
3/23/53/83/113/143/173/203/233/263/29
SPX WTI Polymarket
WorldCup
USA 250
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, Bloomberg
Exhibit 12 - NDX fwd P/E contracted by 29% since Oct
NDX fwd. P/E vs. 6m highs (2001-3/30/26)
-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%
02040608101214161820222426
NDX P/E drawdown from 6m highs
Tech Bubble low
Fed hikes
GFC
Euro debt crisis
UScredit downgradeDec. 2018COVID
2022 bear market
Liberation DaySoftware/Iran
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet
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Exhibit 13 - 1/3 of S&P 500 stocks now trade at 1 standard
deviation below their 5-yr average on fwd P/E
% of SPX stocks trading 1 SD below their rolling 5-year average
forward PE (2006-3/30/2026)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
060708091011121314151617181920212223242526
% of SPX stocks trading 1 SD below their rolling 5-year average fwd. PE
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet
#3: US > international on energy independence
Despite energy dependence, flows into int'l equities over US have continued and even accelerated
post-Iran War. This follows a year of extreme relative outflows from the US (Exhibit 14).
We believe that the war was a reminder that energy independence matters and US stocks are higher
quality than others (Exhibit 15). As long as the economy remains largely unscathed, the war will likely
be a positive event for US stocks, reversing the flows back to the US.
Exhibit 14 - One of the most extreme relative outflows from
US equities into international
US equity ETF and mutual fund 52-week flows as % of total fund
AUM relative to international (2015-3/27/2026)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
Exhibit 15 - Energy independence matters
Energy independence vs. local index stock market performance, post
US-Israel strikes on Iran (2/28/26-3/30/26)
Canada
Brazil
Mexico
AustraliaUS
China
IndiaEuropeJapan
South Korea R² = 0.4786
-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%
-100%0% 100%200%300%
Local stock index performance
(domestic oil production -imports from Strait of Hormuz) / oil consumption
Source: Wells Fargo Securities LLC, Energy Institute, US Energy
Information Administration, Bloomberg
#4: Hyperscalers' FCF may be inflecting higher
We turned bullish Hyperscalers recently after being bearish for months, as their FCF profile could be
inflecting higher on stronger top-line (Exhibit 16).
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Our analysts also estimate the IRR of current capacity investments is approaching 20%, justifying the
ramp in hyperscaler capacity additions (see Hyperscaler FCF Estimates Stabilizing).
The focus is shifting quickly to adoption and monetization. LangChain, an agent building framework,
surpassed 200M monthly downloads from ~100M in Dec before the release of OpenClaw (Exhibit 17 -
see our analysts' note).
Exhibit 16 - Our analysts expect Hyperscaler FCF revision to
inflect higher
Big Four Hyperscaler (MSFT, META, GOOG, AMZN) CY26-27 FCF
consensus estimate revision history and WF current estimates
291
391
272
371
242
331
199
278
98
170139
219
050100150200250300350400450
CY2026E CY2027E
1Q252Q253Q254Q251Q26WFS Estimate
TTM Revision: (-66%) TTM Revision: (-57%)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Estimates, FactSet
Exhibit 17 - Strong LangChain momentum is a reasonable
proxy for developer agent building activity
Monthly downloads of LangChain, an agent building framework
(2022-02/26)
Source: PyPi, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
#5: Re-stocking cycle continues to drive PMI higher
We remain bullish commodities and short-cycle Industrials on a continued re-stocking cycle that
could potentially accelerate post-tariff ruling and amid supply chain disruption (Exhibit 18). Trucking
demand is also at the strongest level since 2022, which should continue to support an upward PMI
cycle (Exhibit 19).
Exhibit 18 - Re-stocking: Own commodities
S&P 500 inventory vs. Bloomberg Commodity Index (1999-2/26)
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
9902050710131518212326
SPX days of inventory (YoY)Bloomberg Commodity Index (YoY, RHS)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet
Exhibit 19 - The flatbed trucking market is signaling a further
rise in the PMI
US flatbed truck market demand index vs. PMI (2014 - 3/26)
40
45
50
55
60
65
050100150200250300350400
14151617181920212223242526
Flatbed truck market demand indexPMI (RHS)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
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...But tactically cautious
Good news = higher rates; bad news = stagflation
Despite our longer-term bullish stance, we are tactically cautious given the war uncertainty and the
setup heading into macro data. We expect good news will come with higher rates weighing on stocks,
while bad news will come with stagflation fears - a lose-lose situation (Exhibit 20).
Exhibit 20 - Stagflation often comes with oil shock
WTI vs. stagflation periods* (1947-3/30/2026)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
4751555963677175798387919599030711151923
Stagflation WTI
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
*Sub-1% GDP growth, combined with 3%+ and accelerating CPI
Exhibit 21 - Stagflation playbook: Energy + Utilities
Sector relative returns and hit rate during periods of stagflation
(1989-2/26)
25%
50%
75%
100%
-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%
AverageHit Rate (RHS)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
No real capitulation yet
Flows data also suggests there hasn't been a real flush that historically marked bottoms (Exhibit 2).
Also, while sentiment has quickly shifted negative, there have been more analyst price target upgrades
than downgrades in March (Exhibit 22).
Exhibit 22 - There were more price target upgrades than
downgrades in March
Net price target upgrade % (2005 - 3/26)
-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Net price target upgrade %
Liberation DayCOVIDGFC 2022 bear market
US creditdowngrade
Manufacturing recession
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
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Key risk: 2H inflation
2H inflation remains key risk (Exhibit 23), especially with mounting growth fear. A simple model using
ISM inventories and a proxy for supply chain stress suggests upward pressure to prices relative to
today (Exhibit 24 - see Devil's Advocate: Bear Case Is 2H Inflation)
Exhibit 23 - Inflation is too much money...
US M2 money supply 24m change vs. CPI 24m change (24m lag) -
1962-12/25)
Correl: 48%
-3%0%3%6%9%12%15%18%21%24%27%30%
-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
6266707478828690949802061014182226
M2 CPI (RHS, 24m lag)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
Exhibit 24 - ...chasing after too few goods
Inventory-implied CPI using ISM inventory and ISM business
deliveries % slower, based on 5-year rolling regression (1986-2/26)
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
8689929598010407101316192225
Inventory-implied CPIActual CPI (18m lag)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
Smaller tailwind from OBBB tax returns
The fiscal tailwind from bigger tax returns is also tracking weaker than initially anticipated (Exhibit 25).
Exhibit 25 - Tax return fiscal tailwind is tracking weaker than
we anticipated
2026 vs. 2025 individual tax returns (actual) vs. 2026 (initial
estimate) (2/1 - 5/1, 2026A data through 3/26/26)
- 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1
Individual tax refunds YTD ($M)
2026 2025 2026 initial expectation
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Dept. of the Treasury, Joint
Committee on Taxation estimates
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Incorporating emerging risk: SPX target lowered to 7300 from 7800
Our PRSM framework consists of four drivers of the equity market: Profits, Rates, Sentiment, and
Macro.
We derive our S&P 500 target by calculating the average z-score of our PRSM models. Backtested
forecasts of PRSM were 72% correlated with 12-mo. returns on the S&P 500, using Rates, Sentiment,
and Macro models as leading indicators (lagged by 12 months for backtests) and the Profits model as
a coincident indicator.
For more detail on methodology and backtested results, please refer to Appendix.
Our PRSM model currently points to +14% over the next 12 months, resulting in our S&P 500 target
of 7300 by year-end 2026. Our forecasts are based on leading indicators as of today and our S&P 500
EPS forecast of $315 in 2026 and $365 in 2027. We use the average price of Feb 28 and March 30 as
the base price to forecast the year-end target, smoothing the impact of the sell-off.
Exhibit 26 - Our PRSM model yields 7300 on SPX by year-end
2026
PRSM model summary (as of 3/26)
Model Z-score Exp. ReturnCorr vs. SPX
Profits 0.38 13% 53%
Rates 0.86 18% 29%Sentiment NA NA 31%Macro -0.44 9% 31%PRSM 0.27 14% 72%
S&P 500 target
12m Forecast
7,3002026 year-end
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet
Rates, Sentiment, Macro are leading indicators, while Profits is a
coincident indicator. Sentiment z-score only gets included when over 1SD
away from avg.
Exhibit 27 - Our PRSM model forecasts 14% return over the
next 12 months
Actual vs. modeled 12-mo. return based on PRSM (1998-3/26;
dot=WF forecast) - 72% correlation
-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%
989900010304050608091011131415161819202123242526
PRSM 12-mo. forecastS&P 500 YoY
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet
Leading indicators (Rates, Sentiment, Macro) were lagged by 12 months
for the backtest. The forward 12M forecast is based on our 2025-27E
EPS forecast and the leading indicators as of today.
P: Profits
Stocks trade on earnings, and the P (Profits) is the most integral pillar of our PRSM framework.
Historically, 12-mo. changes in next 12-mo. (NTM) consensus EPS, which reflect both forward growth
expectations and analyst revisions, have shown a 53% correlation to 12-mo. returns on the S&P 500
since 1994 and 63% over the past 20 years.
We forecast S&P 500 EPS of $315 in 2026 (+15% YoY) and $365 in 2027 (+16%).
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Exhibit 28 - Profit is a fundamental driver of equities. We
expect a continued EPS upcycle ahead.
Rolling 5-yr z-score of NTM EPS YoY vs. S&P 500 12-mo. return
(1994-1Q27E); dotted = our forecast
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
-4-3-2-101234
949697990002040507081012131516181921232426
Fwd EPS YoY (5-yr z-score)SPX YoY (RHS)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, FactSet
Exhibit 29 - We forecast S&P 500 EPS of $315 in 2026 and $365
in 2027
S&P 500 EPS - consensus vs. Wells Fargo Strategy estimates
Consensus YoY WF est. YoY
2025 $275 13% $274 13%
1Q26E $71.29 12% $74.00 16%
2Q26E $78.48 17% $78.00 16%
3Q26E $84.36 19% $82.00 16%
4Q26E $87.63 18% $81.00 12%
2026E $320 17% $315 15%
1Q27E $86.53 21% $83.00 12%
2Q27E $91.97 17% $89.00 14%
3Q27E $97.20 15% $95.00 16%
4Q27E $99.20 13% $98.00 21%
2027E $373 16% $365 16%
2028E $414 11% $390 7%
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet
R: Rates & Liquidity
Our Rates & Liquidity Indicator has been a strong predictor of multiples, especially since the financial
crisis, leading YoY changes in fwd. P/E by six months with a 53% correlation since 2010 (Exhibit 30).
Buy and Sell signals based on 1 standard deviation cutoffs have historically been robust signals for the
market. The S&P 500 rallied 13% on average over six months after Buy signals with a 100% hit rate,
while it fell 5% on average after Sell signals, being positive just 35% of the time.
The indicator currently is positive, at 0.8, reversing the sharp contraction in 4Q25.
See Appendix for methodology.
Exhibit 30 - Our Rates & Liquidity Indicator has been a strong
predictor of future multiples
Wells Fargo Rates & Liquidity Indicator vs. S&P 500 fwd. P/E YoY
lagged by six months (1990-3/26)
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
-2
-1
0
1
2
90929496980002040608101214161820222426
WF Rates & Liquidity IndicatorS&P 500 fwd. PE YoY (lagged by 6 months; RHS)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
Exhibit 31 - Buy and Sell signals based on 1 std. dev. cutoffs
produced robust returns historically
S&P 500 vs. Buy/Sell signals based on Wells Fargo Rates & Liquidity
Indicator (1983-3/26)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
83858789909294969799010304060810111315171820222425
Sell Buy S&P 500
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
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S: Sentiment
Our Sentiment Indicator measures investor sentiment and positioning in equities, and has been a
strong contrarian indicator. Buy signals (z-score below -1) have historically produced 10.0% returns
on the S&P 500 over the subsequent six months (positive 86% of the time), while sell signals (z-score
above 1) resulted in -0.2% returns (positive just 51% of the time) - Exhibit 32.
The indicator is a signal indicator rather than a general predictor of the market, and is included in our
PRSM model only when signals are triggered. Within the 1 standard deviation band, the indicator was
just -2% correlated to subsequent 6-mo. returns of the S&P 500, but outside the band, it showed a
strong -46% correlation (contrarian).
Currently, the indicator remains neutral at -0.1.
For more detail on the methodology and backtested results, refer to Appendix.
Exhibit 32 - Sentiment is neutral, with the latest reading at
-0.1
Wells Fargo Sentiment Indicator (1998-3/27/26)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
980002040608101214161820222426
Sentiment IndicatorSellBuy Current level
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet
Exhibit 33 - Our Sentiment Indicator's Buy/Sell signals
produced strong long/short returns
Backtested S&P 500 returns following our Sentiment Indicator's
Buy/Sell signals since 1998
N1M N3M N6M N12M
Buy Avg. 3.2% 7.6% 10.0% 16.3%
Median 3.7% 6.6% 8.4% 15.8%
Hit rate 78% 90% 86% 84%
Sell Avg. (0.9%) (1.3%) (0.2%) 4.4%
Median 0.7% (0.1%) 0.4% 8.2%
Hit rate 54% 49% 51% 62%
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet
Based on 72 Buy signals and 39 Sell signals since 1998
M: Macro
Macro, at a high level, can be boiled down into growth and inflation, which comprise the Fed's dual
mandate (full employment and steady inflation). For equities, economic growth affects long-term EPS
growth (g) and equity risk premium (ERP: confidence in the earnings outlook), while inflation affects
the risk-free rate (Rf).
Historically, the spread between the ISM Manufacturing PMI (growth proxy) and the Prices Paid index
(inflation proxy) has been a reliable leading indicator of stocks. Over the past 20 years, the normalized
spread (using 5-yr z-scores) led the S&P 500 by a year with a 38% correlation (Exhibit 34). With the
March data yet available, we assumed 54 on the headline PMI and 71 on the Prices Paid index.
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Exhibit 34 - The spread between ISM Manufacturing PMI and
Prices Paid has been a leading indicator of the S&P 500
Spread between ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid vs. S&P
500 YoY with a year lag (1953-3/26)
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
5357626671758084899398020711162025
ISM PMI - Prices Paid (5-yr z-score)SPX YoY (RHS; lagged by a year)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
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Flows
Last week saw $1B of ETF inflows to the S&P 500 companies, with Monday the only day posting
positive inflows (Exhibit 35). Communication Services and Financials led inflows, offset by outflows
from Materials and Utilities (Exhibit 36).
ETF outflows from the Russell 2000 last week were the second largest since 2015 (Exhibit 37). In a
rolling 12-month basis, rising flows into RTY over SPX have historically signaled RTY outperformance,
with an 80% correlation (Exhibit 38).
Exhibit 35 - Last week saw $1B of ETF inflows to the S&P 500
companies
ETF flows into the S&P 500 as % market cap (2015-3/27/2026)
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
151617181920212223242526
Weekly flows as % market cap4-week moving avg
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
Exhibit 36 - Communication Services and Financials led inflows,
offset by outflows from Materials and Utilities
ETF flows as % market cap (as of 3/27/2026)
-0.04%-0.02%0.00%0.02%0.04%0.06%
Comm. Svcs.FinancialsEnergyIndustrialsTechSPXReal EstateCons. Disc.StaplesHealth CareUtilitiesMaterials
Weekly flows as % market cap4-week moving avg
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
Exhibit 37 - ETF outflows from RTY last week were the second
largest since 2015
ETF flows into the Russell 2000 as % market cap
(2015-3/27/2026)
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
151617181920212223242526
Weekly flows as % market cap4-week moving avg
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
Exhibit 38 - ETF inflows into RTY relative to SPX = RTY
outperformance
12-mo. ETF flows into RTY relative to SPX as % market cap vs. RTY/
SPX performance (2015-3/27/2026)
0.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.70
-1.1%-0.9%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%-0.1%0.1%0.3%0.5%
151617181920212223242526
12-mo. ETF flows as % market cap: RTY relative to SPXRTY/SPX (RHS)
correlation= 0.8
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
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Exhibit 39 - ETF flows to Mag 7 have been weakening over the
last 6 months
6-mo. ETF flows to Mag 7 as % market cap relative to SPX
(2006-3/27/26)
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
060708091011121314151617181920212223242526
ETF flows to Mag 7 as % market cap relative to SPX
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet
Exhibit 40 - Active long-only outflows from Mag 7 have
accelerated
LTM active long-only flows to Mag 7 vs. active weight relative to
SPX (2015-2/26)
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
-80,000-60,000-40,000-20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000
151617181920212223242526
LTM active LO flows ($M)Active weight (RHS)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet
Active weight of 1 indicates funds are equal-weight the stock, while a
ratio above 1 indicates overweight and vice versa for a ratio below 1.
Exhibit 41 - ETF flows drive performance
Year-to-date ETF flows as % market cap vs. stock performance (as
of 3/27)
Energy
Materials
Industrials
UtilitiesRTYReal EstateHealth CareSPX
Staples
TechFinancials
NDX
Cons. Disc.Mag 7
Comm. Svcs.
R² = 0.9088
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%
YTD return
YTD ETF flows as % market cap
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
Sector Sentiment
Software remains as Contrarian Buy, with sentiment at -2.6, while Commercial & Professional Services
have softened and triggered Buy signals at -1.9. On the Sell side, Energy remains elevated at 2.5, while
Tech Hardware (1.6) has triggered a Sell signal.
See Appendix for more details.
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Exhibit 42 - Most bullish industry group is Energy, while most
bearish is Software
Industry group relative sentiment (as of 3/27/2026)
0 SentimentRSI 50D vs. 200D maAvg diff % vs. 50D maAvg diff % vs. 200D maETF Flows
Energy 2.5 2.5 1.8 3.3 2.9 1.8
Tech Hardware 1.6 0.8 0.7 3.1 5.1 -1.5
Materials 1.1 0.3 1.8 0.6 1.8 1.0
Capital Goods 1.0 0.2 2.6 -0.5 1.0 1.7
Utilities 0.7 0.7 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.6
Semis 0.6 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 1.4 1.4
Transportation 0.6 0.0 0.8 -0.5 1.0 1.6
Biopharma & Life Sciences0.4 -0.1 1.8 -0.5 0.4 0.5
Telecom 0.3 1.2 0.0 1.9 0.7 -2.2
Staples Retail 0.3 0.6 1.4 0.2 0.7 -1.3
REITs 0.1 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 1.2
Banks -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.4 0.1 -1.6
Autos -0.3 -0.4 0.3 -0.8 -0.2 -0.5
Food, Beverage & Tobacco-0.4 0.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -1.0
Insurance -0.5 0.5 -0.9 0.1 -1.1 -1.4
Durables & Apparel -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.1
Consumer Svcs -0.8 -0.3 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -0.8
Media & Ent. -0.8 -1.5 0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.7
Household & Personal Products-0.9 -0.7 -0.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2
Health Care Equip & Svcs-1.0 -1.0 -1.3 -1.3 -1.8 0.6
Financial Svcs -1.1 0.1 -1.0 -1.1 -2.1 -1.2
Discretionary Retail -1.1 0.0 -1.2 -1.7 -1.7 -1.0
Commercial & Prof Svcs -1.9 -0.7 -3.2 -1.9 -3.5 0.0
Software -2.6 -1.1 -5.4 -1.6 -4.5 -0.4
Input variables
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
Exhibit 43 - Buy signals are triggered for Software and
Commercial & Professional Services, while Sell signals are
triggered for Energy and Tech Hardware
Industry group relative sentiment (as of 3/27/2026)
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
EnergyTech HardwareMaterialsCapital GoodsUtilitiesSemisTransportationBiopharma & Life SciencesTelecomStaples RetailREITsBanksAutosFood, Beverage & TobaccoInsuranceDurables & ApparelConsumer SvcsMedia & Ent.Household & Personal ProductsHealth Care Equip & SvcsFinancial SvcsDiscretionary RetailCommercial & Prof SvcsSoftware
Sentiment Buy Sell
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
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Appendix
Sentiment Indicator
Our Sentiment Indicator is a contrarian indicator, signaling extreme bullishness or bearishness in the
market. The indicator is generated by taking the average z-score of the following five indicators:
• S&P Price: 6-month z-score on 1-month S&P price changes. A sharp rise or fall in equities driven by
momentum indicates extreme bullishness or bearishness that can reverse.
• Put/Call: 6-month z-score on a 3-month change in the CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio Index. A rising
ratio indicates more put contracts being bought relative to calls, i.e., rising bearishness. Extremely
high or low levels of the ratio signal extreme bearishness or bullishness that can reverse.
• Net Futures Positions: 6-month z-score on the CFTC net non-commercial futures contracts on
the S&P 500. A positive value indicates net long positions in futures contracts, while a negative
value indicates net short positions. Extreme levels indicate extreme bullishness or bearishness that
can reverse.
• Fund Flows: 6-month z-score on net US equity ETF and mutual fund flows as a percentage of
total fund AUM. Extreme inflows or outflows indicate extreme bullishness or bearishness that can
reverse.
Exhibit 44 - Sentiment is neutral, with the latest reading at
-0.1
Sentiment Indicator (as of 3/27/2026)
Changes
Indicator Current 3m 6m 12m
SPX Price -3.8 -3.5 -3.8 -2.0
Put-Call 0.4 1.0 0.1 2.1
Futures 1.7 -0.9 2.5 2.4
ETF Flows 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.1
Average -0.1 -0.6 0.1 0.9
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet
Exhibit 45 - Variables in our Sentiment Indicator are largely
uncorrelated to each other
Correlations among Sentiment Indicator variables since 1998 (as of
3/27/2026)
SPX Price Put-Call Futures ETF Flows
SPX Price 100% 44% -13% -16%
Put-Call 44% 100% -8% 0%
Futures -13% -8% 100% 5%
ETF Flows -16% 0% 5% 100%
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet
Sector Sentiment Indicator
Our Sector Sentiment Indicator measures investor sentiment at the industry group level relative to
the S&P 500. It is a contrarian indicator signaling extreme bullishness or bearishness. Buy signals (z-
score below -1.5) have historically produced +1.1% returns relative to the S&P 500 over the next
month (positive 59% of the time), while sell signals (z-score above 1.5) resulted in -1.0% returns
(positive 40% of the time) - Exhibit 46.
The indicator is constructed by taking the average z-score of the following five indicators:
• RSI: Expanding z-score on the 14-day RSI of the S&P 500 industry group GICS level 2 index over
the SPX index. It is used to identify overbought or oversold conditions at the industry group level
relative to the S&P 500.
• 50D vs. 200D moving average: Expanding z-score on the gap between the 50D and 200D moving
average of the S&P 500 industry group GICS level 2 index over the SPX index. Extreme gaps tend
to reverse when momentum becomes overextended.
• Average % vs. 50D moving average: Expanding z-score on the spread between 1) the average gap
of the stock prices vs. the 50D moving averages across the constituents within the industry group
and 2) the corresponding average gap for all SPX stocks. When constituents reach extreme levels
relative to their short-term trends, breadth could reverse as excessive optimism or pessimism
unwinds.
• Average % vs. 200D moving average: Expanding z-score on the spread between 1) the average
gap of the stock prices vs. the 200D moving averages across the constituents within the industry
group and 2) the corresponding average gap for all SPX stocks. When constituents reach extreme
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levels relative to their long-term trends, breadth could revert as prolonged overextension or
capitulation unwinds.
• ETF Flows: 6-month z-score on net 52-week equity ETF flows as a percentage of market cap
relative to S&P 500. Extreme inflows or outflows indicate extreme bullishness or bearishness that
can reverse. We track ETF flows at the industry group level by monitoring flows across 460 global
ETFs with $8T in total AUM, allocating those flows to individual stocks based on ETF holdings, and
then aggregating the stock-level flows to GICS level 2 industry groups.
Exhibit 46 - Buy and Sell signals on our Sector Sentiment Indicator have been robust for most industry groups
Industry group relative returns following Buy & Sell signals (2007-present)
N1M Overall
Media &
Ent. Telecom Autos
Disc.
Retail
Durables &
Apparel
Consumer
Svcs
Staples
Retail
Food,
Beverage &
Tobacco
Household &
Personal
Products Energy Banks
Financial
Svcs Insurance
Health Care
Equip &
Svcs
Biopharma
& Life
Sciences
Capital
Goods
Commercial
& Prof SvcsTransportation Semis Software
Tech
Hardware Materials REITs Utilities
Buy Avg. 1.0% -0.2% 1.0% 3.4% 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% -0.4% 1.3% -0.7% 3.8% 2.5% 2.5% 0.8% 1.0% -2.3% 0.8% 3.6% -1.9% 2.7% 0.8% -0.1% 0.6%
Median 0.6% -0.5% 1.1% 4.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% -0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2.1% 1.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% -1.3% -0.2% 3.0% 0.6% 3.8% 1.2% -1.5% -0.1%
Hit rate 58% 38% 59% 65% 50% 61% 67% 67% 67% 40% 61% 50% 56% 77% 88% 64% 50% 29% 50% 75% 65% 71% 71% 39% 46%
Sell Avg. -1.0% -0.6% -2.0% -2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -3.2% -0.2% -1.1% -2.0% -0.4% -1.1% -0.9% -1.0% -0.6% -2.3% -0.7% -0.7% -1.2% -0.5% -0.3% -4.1% -4.8% -0.9%
Median -0.9% -0.2% -1.9% -4.3% 0.1% 0.1% -0.5% -1.6% -1.2% -1.2% -3.5% -1.3% -1.3% -0.8% -0.5% -0.9% -2.7% -1.1% -0.2% -1.2% -0.2% 0.2% -4.0% -5.5% -1.9%
Hit rate 40% 50% 38% 26% 52% 52% 39% 24% 45% 43% 39% 38% 32% 42% 33% 45% 23% 37% 50% 38% 48% 55% 0% 0% 44%
N2M
Buy Avg. 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 11.3% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% -0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 7.6% -3.4% 8.0% 3.8% 3.1% 0.9% 1.7% -3.1% 2.7% 6.6% 0.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.8%
Median 1.1% 0.7% 1.0% 11.3% 0.9% 2.1% 2.0% -0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 5.2% -1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% -3.1% 2.5% 4.2% 0.0% 1.4% 2.0% -1.3% 1.6%
Hit rate 60% 63% 53% 71% 58% 64% 67% 47% 66% 55% 72% 44% 56% 56% 83% 60% 62% 24% 67% 88% 46% 71% 65% 48% 62%
Sell Avg. -1.8% 0.2% -6.3% -5.3% -1.5% -1.5% -0.3% -5.5% -0.3% -1.9% -3.9% -0.3% -0.3% -3.7% -2.2% -1.9% -1.1% -1.4% 0.0% -1.5% 0.1% 1.4% -5.5% -8.0% -1.6%
Median -0.7% 0.8% -6.7% -6.4% -0.3% -1.2% 0.6% -6.0% -0.8% -1.1% -6.6% 0.6% -0.3% -2.2% -0.1% -2.9% -0.8% 0.2% -0.2% -0.7% 0.5% 1.6% -3.5% -7.9% -0.6%
Hit rate 41% 70% 21% 21% 44% 30% 61% 19% 45% 33% 30% 59% 47% 21% 48% 39% 23% 53% 38% 38% 54% 68% 0% 0% 30%
N3M
Buy Avg. 1.8% 1.4% 0.5% 4.2% 2.9% 1.5% 1.1% -1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 6.5% -5.1% 11.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.1% 1.5% -3.5% 4.7% 9.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.8% -0.3% 0.7%
Median 0.9% 1.4% -0.4% 1.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.6% -0.2% 1.4% 0.1% 3.0% -4.6% -0.9% -0.6% 2.1% 1.8% 0.8% -5.1% 3.2% 6.9% 3.4% 3.7% 1.6% -0.7% 1.3%
Hit rate 57% 56% 47% 53% 75% 48% 56% 40% 62% 51% 56% 22% 44% 48% 83% 76% 62% 23% 78% 94% 69% 57% 71% 45% 54%
Sell Avg. -2.2% 2.1% -9.2% -9.7% -1.6% -1.7% -0.4% -8.3% 0.8% -1.9% 0.0% -1.8% 0.8% -6.0% -3.7% -2.0% -3.3% -2.7% -2.1% -0.3% 0.6% 1.6% -5.3% -10.5% -0.6%
Median -1.6% 2.3% -6.8% -6.6% -1.8% -0.7% -0.7% -5.8% 0.4% -0.5% -2.4% -1.3% 0.0% -6.0% -2.9% -4.3% -2.7% -2.2% -2.5% 0.0% 0.2% 2.3% -3.6% -11.1% -0.6%
Hit rate 39% 80% 17% 21% 44% 26% 45% 5% 50% 48% 39% 50% 42% 16% 37% 39% 31% 27% 25% 50% 50% 64% 0% 0% 44%
Relative performance vs. SPX
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
Complacency Indicator
Our Complacency Indicator measures the level of complacency in the equity market compared to
other asset classes, including bond, dollar, gold, and oil. The indicator shows the 6-month z-score on
the spread between 21-day realized volatility in the equity market vs. modeled volatility. We calculate
the modeled volatility by running a rolling 6-month regression on the 21-day realized equity market
volatility against the realized volatility of bond, dollar, gold, and oil.
Exhibit 47 - Our Complacency Indicator stands at 0.6
Wells Fargo Complacency Indicator (1995-3/27/26)
-5-4-3-2-101234
95979901030507091113151719212325
Too volatile <---> Too complacent
Complacency Indicator+/- 2SD Current Level
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
Exhibit 48 - Extreme complacency and extreme volatility
historically led to higher and lower volatility, respectively
Change in realized volatility after extreme complacency/volatility
based on 2SD cutoffs on our Complacency Indicator (since 1995)
1-mo. 3-mo. 6-mo. 12-mo.
Extreme complacency
Avg. chg. in vol. (ppt) 0.3% 1.1% 1.3% 4.4%
Median chg. in vol. (ppt) 1.0% 0.6% 2.3% 3.7%
% higher vol. 57% 59% 66% 73%
Extreme vol.
Avg. chg. in vol. (ppt) (3.4%) (7.5%) (8.0%) (9.8%)
Median chg. in vol. (ppt) (5.0%) (6.5%) (5.1%) (6.6%)
% higher vol. 21% 18% 27% 25%
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg
Rates & Liquidity Indicator
Our Rates & Liquidity Indicator captures overall financial conditions affecting the equity market by
taking the average of the 5-yr z-scores of the four variables that measure rates and liquidity:
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• M0 Money Supply: M0 is the monetary base of the economy in the most liquid form, defined as
the sum of currency in circulation and bank reserve balances at the Fed. We take the 5-yr z-score of
the 6-mo. change in M0 to measure liquidity conditions in financial markets.
• PMI vs. rates: We use the ISM Manufacturing PMI as a proxy for growth and compare that to
the 10-yr yield to measure the tightness of rates environment in relation to growth. We take the
spread between 5-yr z-scores of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the 10-yr yield.
• Mortgage spread vs. the Fed funds rate: The mortgage spread vs. the Fed funds rate captures
both the perceived credit risk of the US consumer, as well as the term premium between the 30-yr
Tsy yield and the policy rate. We take the 5-yr z-score of the spread between the 30-yr mortgage
rate and the Fed funds rate.
• SOFR spread vs. the Fed funds rate: The secured overnight financial rate spread vs. the Fed funds
rate measures the credit and liquidity risks in the banking system. We take the 5-yr z-score of the
6-mo. change in the spread to gauge liquidity conditions of financial institutions.
Exhibit 49 - Our Liquidity Indicator is inching toward the Buy
signal
Wells Fargo Rates & Liquidity Indicator vs. SPX fwd. P/E with a 6m
lag (1990-present); dotted line = WF projection out to June 2026
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
-2
-1
0
1
2
90929496980002040608101214161820222426
WF Rates & Liquidity IndicatorS&P 500 fwd. PE YoY (lagged by 6 months; RHS)
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, FactSet, Bloomberg
Dotted line assumes 1) $40B/mo. of Fed balance sheet expansion
through Apr and $25B/mo. through Jun, 2) TGA of $850B/$1,050B/
$925B/$900B in March/April/May/June, and 3) flat SOFR spread vs. Fed
Funds Rate
Exhibit 50 - Variables in our Rates & Liquidity Indicator are
largely uncorrelated to each other
Correlations among Rates & Liquidity Indicator variables since 1983
(as of 2/26)
M0 PMI - Rates
Mortgage spread vs.
FFR SOFR vs. FFR
M0 100% 10% -37% -10%
PMI - Rates 10% 100% -9% 19%
Mortgage spread vs. FFR -37% -9% 100% 0%
SOFR vs. FFR -10% 19% 0% 100%
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Bloomberg, FactSet
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Required Disclosures
I, Ohsung Kwon, certify that:
1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and
2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report.
To view analyst certifications and other important disclosures, please go to the report-specific links included in the report summary sections above.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research
analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment
banking revenue.
Additional Information Available Upon Request
STOCK RATING
OW=Overweight: Total return on stock expected to be 10%+ over the next 12 months. (BUY)
EW=Equal Weight: Total return on stock expected to be -10% to +10% over the next 12 months. (HOLD)
UW=Underweight: Total return on stock expected to lag the Overweight- and Equal Weight-rated stocks within the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12
months. (SELL)
NR=Not Rated: The rating and price target has been removed due to lack of fundamental basis to support the recommendation or due to legal, regulatory or
company policy considerations.
FINRA regulation requires member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories: Buy, Hold and Sell. In accordance with FINRA regulation and solely to
satisfy those disclosure requirements in the ratings distribution table and ratings history chart contained in these Required Disclosures, our rating of Overweight
corresponds to a Buy rating; Equal Weight corresponds to a Hold rating; and Underweight corresponds to a Sell rating.
As of March 29, 2026
53.5% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Overweight. (BUY)
39.4% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Equal Weight. (HOLD)
7.1% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Underweight. (SELL)
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 42.6% of its Equity Research Overweight-rated companies. (BUY)
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 39.3% of its Equity Research Equal Weight-rated companies. (HOLD)
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No Real Flush Yet. Marking Down SPX Target to 7300. Equity Research
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