See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Action | 30 Mar 2026 17:02:57 ET │ 12 pages First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM.TO) 1Q26 Preview: Ops On Track; Higher Energy Costs To Flow Into 2Q CITI’S TAKE We update our FM model ahead of earnings with Q1’26 EPS at $0.06/sh and EBITDA at $424m – see Figure 1. 2026E EBITDA is -1% to $2.2bn. Q1 production should be slightly lower sequentially due to seasonality with production ramping up with better grades through the year (Kansanshi transitioning from lower grade stockpiles to SE Dome ore). On energy costs, 2026E guidance is based on $70/bbl Brent with +/-10% = 2 cents, i.e. $110/bbl would add +8% or ~$0.16/lb, which would start to kick in during 2Q. At Panama the company is still waiting for permission to process stockpiles but is expected shortly. The environmental audit report is due April 14; this could be a catalyst for formal negotiations on reopening the mine. Buy / High Risk Price (30 Mar 26 16:00) C$31.05 Target price C$39.00 Expected share price return 25.6% Expected dividend yield 0.0% Expected total return 25.6% Market Cap C$25,902M US$18,641M Alexander Hacking, CFAAC +1-212-816-6232 alex.hacking@citi.com EPS (US$) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FC Cons VA Cons 2025A -0.03A 0.02A -0.06A 0.03A -0.03A 0.01A 0.01A 2026E 0.06E 0.08E 0.20E 0.22E 0.57E 0.78E 0.93E Previous 0.09E 0.09E 0.19E 0.19E 0.57E na na 2027E 0.25E 0.26E 0.31E 0.36E 1.18E 2.12E 2.62E Previous 0.24E 0.25E 0.30E 0.35E 1.14E na na 2028E 0.36E 0.36E 0.42E 0.41E 1.54E 2.70E 3.10E Previous 0.35E 0.35E 0.41E 0.40E 1.50E na na Source: Company Reports and dataCentral, Citi Research. FC Cons: First Call Consensus. VA Cons: Visible Alpha Consensus. Click here for Visible Alpha consensus data Prepared for Andrew Weinberg First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM.TO) 30 March 2026 Citi Research 2 FM.TO: Fiscal year end 31-Dec Price: C$31.05; TP: C$39.00; Market Cap: C$25,902m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk Profit & Loss (US$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Valuation ratios 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Sales revenue 4,802 5,237 6,244 7,131 8,963 PE (x) na na 39.3 18.9 14.5 Cost of sales -3,452 -3,779 -4,190 -4,532 -5,768 PB (x) 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 Gross profit 1,350 1,458 2,054 2,598 3,195 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.1 15.8 11.8 8.1 6.2 Gross Margin (%) 28.1 27.8 32.9 36.4 35.6 FCF yield (%) -0.8 -5.3 0.9 0.8 3.0 EBITDA (Adj) 1,491 1,676 2,227 3,211 4,203 Dividend yield (%) na na na na na EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) 31.0 32.0 35.7 45.0 46.9 Payout ratio (%) 0 0 0 0 0 Depreciation -633 -718 -593 -763 -1,157 ROE (%) 0.0 -0.2 4.0 7.5 8.9 Amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 Cashflow (US$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E EBIT (Adj) 810 966 1,534 2,348 2,945 EBITDA 1,443 1,684 2,127 3,111 4,103 EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) 16.9 18.4 24.6 32.9 32.9 Working capital -230 -485 -279 -1,029 -750 Net interest -709 -673 -523 -449 -459 Other -81 -1,053 -607 -925 -1,303 Associates 0 0 0 0 0 Operating cashflow 1,132 146 1,241 1,157 2,050 Non-Op/Except/Other Adj 179 163 0 0 0 Capex -1,286 -1,134 -1,075 -1,000 -1,500 Pre-tax profit 280 456 1,011 1,899 2,486 Net acq/disposals 0 0 340 0 0 Tax -388 -521 -379 -712 -932 Other -8 -67 -20 -20 -20 Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. 110 37 -158 -201 -265 Investing cashflow -1,294 -1,201 -755 -1,020 -1,520 Reported net profit 2 -28 474 986 1,289 Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0 Net Margin (%) 0.0 -0.5 7.6 13.8 14.4 Financing cashflow 19 889 0 0 0 Core NPAT 2 -28 474 986 1,289 Net change in cash -143 -165 486 137 530 Per share data 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E FCF ex acquisns & explorn exp -154 -988 506 157 550 Reported EPS ($) 0.00 -0.03 0.57 1.18 1.54 Core EPS ($) 0.00 -0.03 0.57 1.18 1.54 DPS ($) 0 0 0 0 0 CFPS ($) 1.39 0.18 1.49 1.39 2.46 FCFPS ($) -0.19 -1.18 0.20 0.19 0.66 BVPS ($) 14.12 13.41 15.17 16.55 18.14 Wtd avg ord shares (m) 807 832 832 832 832 Wtd avg diluted shares (m) 814 834 834 834 834 Growth rates 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Sales revenue (%) -25.6 9.1 19.2 14.2 25.7 EBIT (Adj) (%) 938.5 19.3 58.8 53.1 25.4 Core NPAT (%) 100.2 na na 108.1 30.6 Core EPS (%) 100.2 na na 108.1 30.6 Balance Sheet (US$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Cash & cash equiv. 843 716 1,084 1,147 1,625 Accounts receivables 509 1,471 1,868 2,521 3,331 Inventory 1,554 1,537 1,978 2,527 2,709 Net fixed & other tangibles 20,653 21,095 21,597 21,855 22,217 Goodwill & intangibles 237 237 237 237 237 Financial & other assets 311 182 182 182 182 Total assets 24,107 25,238 26,947 28,469 30,301 Accounts payable 554 590 681 854 1,096 Short-term debt 498 858 858 858 858 Long-term debt 5,844 5,050 5,050 5,050 5,050 Provisions & other liab 5,309 7,204 7,204 7,204 7,204 Total liabilities 12,205 13,702 13,793 13,966 14,208 Shareholders' equity 11,469 11,165 12,625 13,773 15,098 Minority interests 433 371 529 730 995 Total equity 11,902 11,536 13,154 14,502 16,093 Net debt (Adj) 5,499 5,192 4,824 4,761 4,283 Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) 46.2 45.0 36.7 32.8 26.6 For definitions of the items in this table, please click here. Prepared for Andrew Weinberg First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM.TO) 30 March 2026 Citi Research 3 Figure 1. Quarterly Summary © 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup’s written permission. Source: Citi Research Prepared for Andrew Weinberg First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM.TO) 30 March 2026 Citi Research 4 First Quantum Minerals Ltd Company description First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM.TO) is a copper miner with core assets in Zambia and Panama, plus smaller mines Mauritania, Spain, Turkey, Finland, and Australia. The company also has possible projects in Argentina and Peru. Copper capacity is ~950kt with ~400kt in Panama, ~450kt in Zambia, and ~50kt elsewhere. Investment strategy We rate FQM a Buy/High Risk (1H). Citi maintains a bullish long-term view on copper. We see more upside than downside from the current situation in Panama. The stock currently discounts Panama close to zero value, in our view, with very little consideration for potential upside. Downside risks would include a protracted stalemate at Panama or lower copper prices. Valuation Our C$39 target price is based on 1.2x NAV on $10,000/ton ($4.54/lb) copper (Citi’s long-term copper price) and 8% WACC. Risks We rate FM High Risk based on the volatility of copper prices and the company’s reliance on two EM geographies (Zambia and Panama). Key risks to its target price include copper prices, operational challenges, and geopolitical instability. If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater than we anticipate, the stock will likely have difficulty achieving our target price. Likewise, if any of these factors proves to have less of an effect than we anticipate, the stock could outperform our target. 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