Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 9. US Equity Insights Do supercycles wear CAPEs? SPX at 19x NTM EPS appears attractive relative to our 2026 growth outlook despite geopolitics and stagflation concerns. Recent high CAPE flags potential systemic risk but an improved macro backdrop, resilient earnings, and evolving Tech fundamentals distinguishes today from prior CAPE peaks. • S&P 500 19x NTM P/E looks like an attractive entry point relative to our 15% 2026 EPS growth outlook, supported by an improving macro backdrop, resilient Tech-led earnings growth, and a capex "supercycle" across hyperscalers, energy, and defense. Big Tech has de- rated materially and the rest of the S&P 500 trades at a discount to our macro-based fair value estimate. While we acknowledge concerns over both private credit and geopolitical instability in the Middle East, we believe neither will derail the current growth cycle. • One specific lens through which to view valuation risk is the Schiller-CAPE (cyclically adjusted P/E) ratio, which recently rose to levels (38x) previously seen in 2021 and 1999, both preceding a US equity bear market. CAPE famously exhibits a negative correlation with long-run equity returns, and today's stock-level CAPE distribution within the S&P 500 bears uncomfortable resemblance to both 1999 (in terms of its top-heavy profile) and 2021 (elevated valuations within the lower quartiles), which could point to elevated systemic risk across the large-cap US equity universe. • That being said, today's macro mix differs from both prior episodes. Unlike 1999 and 2021, when CAPE peaked ahead of further monetary policy tightening, rising inflation, weakening PMIs, and slowing corporate earnings, today’s environment features a relatively steadier Fed, improved financial conditions, and still-constructive earnings momentum and revisions, all of which are incrementally more supportive of risk assets.  • CAPE may also cast false warnings in fast-changing secular growth regimes, due to its anchoring to long-run inflation-adjusted earnings. In fact, we find the semiconductor industry to be a good example of this; a 3-year "quasi-CAPE" calculated for the SOX Index shows little relationship with forward returns over the last several decades due to rapid EPS growth over the trailing window, an important consideration for US equities as a whole in the age of AI. De-rating out of the gate in 2026 The S&P 500 is trading at 19x NTM EPS for the first time in almost a year, which we view as an attractive entry point with respect to our forecast for 15% EPS growth in 2026. We see macro valuation support coming from 3 sides: growth, yields, and inflation. Equity Research Equity Strategy 31 March 2026 U.S. Equity Strategy Venu Krishna, CFA +1 212 526 7328 venu.krishna@barclays.com BCI, US Tianqi Feng +1 212 526 9179 tianqi.feng@barclays.com BCI, US Completed: 30-Mar-26, 21:35 GMT Released: 31-Mar-26, 04:10 GMT Restricted - External FIGURE 1. Current multiples have retreated from their highs as macro risks weigh on markets FIGURE 2. Big Tech's FY26 growth rate is projected to slow from 2025, but the rest of the Tech sector is expected to accelerate  0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x 35x Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Fwd P/E BigTech (22.1x) SPX w/o Tech (18.8x) rest of Tech (17.8x) 5% 5% 8% 22% 52% 58% 28% 25% 19% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2025 Growth Rate (Act) 2026 Growth Rate (Est) 2026 Growth Rate (Consensus) Rest of SPX Rest of Tech Big Tech Data as of Mar. 27th, 2026 Data as of Mar. 27th, 2026 Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Bloomberg, Barclays Research First, the cyclical pulse is turning up. Both ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs have inflected back into expansion territory, with headline readings biased to the upside through early 2026, signaling a broadening recovery in orders and production after the 2024–25 soft patch. Second, nominal UST yields are well-anchored, with the 10Y only marginally higher than a year ago despite better growth data. Finally, trimmed mean PCE has eased notably from 2025 levels, with the 12-month rate running below its long-term average, though we do acknowledge the risk from recent commodity price dynamics.  In addition to a mostly supportive macro mix, we also think the Tech-led secular growth story has more room to run, despite persistent concerns around capex and balance sheet strength. Big Tech, despite de-rating from its highs, is still projected to grow 19% in their EPS in FY2026 and rest of Tech is expected to achieve a 58% increase in their EPS according to consensus. We expect the growth story to continue, with capex projected to increase several hundred billion in 2026 and the impact of AI already being reflected in company financials across a growing list of sub-industries.   Where the downside can surprise That being said, recent de-rating in US equities reflects real and material concerns that have shifted the distribution of outcomes to the left. The S&P 500 has pulled back ~8.2% from its January all-time high of 6978 as markets reprice spiraling geopolitical risks and mounting credit concerns. The drawdown has been more pronounced in Tech, Financials, and Discretionary as markets reposition for 'stagflation-lite' scenarios by seeking exposure to Energy, Value, and capital return. Big Tech de-rated from ~28.0x in December to ~22.1x (as of March 27), while the rest of Tech now trades around 17.8x versus 24.9x in December. S&P 500 ex-Big Tech is trading at 18.6x NTM vs. its 10Y median of 17.7x. Backing out the entire Tech sector, the rest of the index is sitting at 18.8x NTM, a full 3 turns below our macro-based fair value estimate of 22.0x. We think this illustrates that a significant amount of uncertainty is already reflected in the recent valuation reset. That said, neither private credit nor the Middle East conflict have signaled the all-clear yet. Further downside from current levels could materialize if sentiment continues to worsen on either front, causing financial conditions to tighten or complicating the Fed’s intended path for rates.  31 March 2026 2 Barclays | US Equity Insights FIGURE 3. Our FY26 price target holds the baseline PT at 7650, with bull case 8200, and bear case 5900 FIGURE 4. SPX ex-Big Tech is trading modestly above median L T relative valuation 27.5x 21.5x 28.0x 25.0x 20.5x 27.0x 22.0x 17.5x 23.0x 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 Base Case Bear Case Bull Case FY26 Price Target Big Tech Rest of Tech Rest of SPX 7650 8200 5900 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 6x 9x 12x 15x 18x 21x 24x 27x 30x 33x SPX MID SML BigTech SPX494 INDU COMM COND CONS MATR HLTH UTIL INFT FINL ENR RE Current 10y %ile relative to SPX (daily) NTM P/E 10y %ile vs. SPX Data as of Mar. 26th, 2026 Data as of Mar. 27th, 2026 Source: LSEG Data & Analystics, Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: LSEG, Barclays Research One specific framing of the bearish valuation argument that we've encountered recently centers around the Schiller-CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings) ratio, which drew renewed attention after rising to a rarely-seen 38x by December 2025. Notably, the last 2 times CAPE hit these levels was in late 2021 and late 1999, both of which preceded a bear market. Whether the current setup is analogous to history depends on both the fundamental and structural underpinnings of today's valuations, which we explore in more detail in the following sections. CAPE Fear CAPE remains contested as to its value in sizing future equity returns, with critics arguing that its anchoring to trailing, inflation-adjusted profits and its long look-back window make CAPE less responsive to near-term changes in fundamentals, while proponents say it has historically been informative over longer horizons. CAPE index= P index/E real, index Famously, regressions of subsequent 10-year S&P 500 returns on starting CAPE shows a meaningfully negative correlation. This indicates that for equity investors or asset allocators with a longer term mandate, CAPE could indeed merit close consideration as an indicator of fair value. 31 March 2026 3 Barclays | US Equity Insights FIGURE 5. S&P 500 CAPE and forward 10-year returns show a meaningfully negative correlation FIGURE 6.  S&P 500 CAPE tended to peak later than its forward P/E over the last decade R² = 0.8064 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0 10 20 30 40 SPX Forward 10 Yr Returns SPX CAPE Ratio 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Forward PESPX CAPE SPX CAPE SPX Forward PE (RHS) Data as of Mar 26th, 2026 Data as of Mar 26th, 2026 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research That being said, long-run valuations tend to capture market regimes and index compositions that can vary significantly throughout the look-back window. To assess how today's environment compares with history, we deconstruct the S&P 500 into its individual constituents as of December 31, 2025, 2021, and 1999, and compute company-level CAPE ratios to see what was really driving elevated index valuations at each point in time.  Idiosyncratic or systemic? The concentrated, Tech-centric rally of the last 3 years poses the question of whether recent high multiples were driven by elevated valuations clustered among a small number of companies with large index weights, and whether this makes the current outlook more or less risky compared to either of the prior two CAPE peaks. At first glance, there are similarities: backing out the 20 largest companies from the S&P 500 reduces index CAPE by ~9x (compared to ~8x in 1999), and grouping the top companies by CAPE shows them carrying a comparable share of index weight. In effect, top-heavy CAPE at the Dotcom bubble peak did little to insulate the rest of the S&P 500 from the bear market that followed, with potentially worrying read- through to today. 31 March 2026 4 Barclays | US Equity Insights FIGURE 7. Excluding the companies with the highest market cap reduces the aggregate index CAPE by approximately ~9x today in 2025, compared with ~6x in 2021 and ~8x in 1999 FIGURE 8. Aggregate index weight of the top 20 companies by CAPE, 1999, 2021, and 2025 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 0 3 5 10 15 20 CAPE Ratios Number of Companies Removed 1999 2021 2025 16.4% 8.2% 14.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 1999 2021 2025 % of Index Weight Top 3 Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20 Data as of Mar 26th, 2026 Data as of Mar 26th, 2026 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research FIGURE 9. Average CAPE by market cap quartile - 1999, 2021, and 2025 16.1 17.0 26.2 46.4 24.7 30.6 37.4 40.2 20.0 24.0 30.2 43.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile Max CAPE Ratios 1999 2021 2025 Data as of Mar 26th, 2026 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research What about outside the topmost slice of the index? Here, there could arguably be more cause for concern. Today, the first quartile of the S&P 500 by market cap exhibits a lower average CAPE than 1999, but a higher average CAPE than 2021. However, CAPE across the second through fourth quartiles is actually higher now than during the bubble. This distribution could point to greater systemic risk, as elevated valuations are spread more broadly across the index. 31 March 2026 5 Barclays | US Equity Insights FIGURE 10. Histogram of CAPE distribution within the S&P 500 in 1999... FIGURE 11. ...looks similar to how it does as of Dec. 31st, 2025, though 2025 distribution skews higher  0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Count 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Count Data as of Mar 27th, 2026 Data as of Mar 27th, 2026 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research FIGURE 12. S&P 500 operating margins have been on a long-term upward trend over the last several decades 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26 SPX T12M Operating Margin Data as of Mar 26th, 2026 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research However, index composition is only one half of the equation; market regimes and fundamentals are the other. By the time CAPE hit local peaks in 1999 and 2021, the Fed still had 3 and 5 rate hikes in store, respectively, over the coming year. Inflation was still on the upswing, PMIs had either recently peaked or were in active decline, and S&P 500 EPS growth was slowing Y/Y. By contrast, the current environment is characterized by a Fed that is on hold at worst (based on current estimates), more stable inflation dynamics, financial conditions that are incrementally more supportive of risk assets, and earnings expectations that remain constructive with companies that are still delivering solid results.  Taking another step back, the S&P 500 is very different today than it was 26 years ago. Our constituent CAPE analysis excluded companies with negative earnings or fewer than 5 years of earnings data at the time of capture, which dropped quite a few names in 1999. Since then and after more than 100 index rebalances, the average S&P 500 company is not only larger but more established and more profitable than ever before. One could argue that higher valuations are not only expected but deserved. 31 March 2026 6 Barclays | US Equity Insights FIGURE 13. Semiconductor industry performance accelerated over the past decade FIGURE 14. 3-year "CAPE" oscillated between extremes frequently over L T history $- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 SOX Price 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 CAPE Ratio SOX CAPE Ratio Data as of Mar 20th, 2026 Data as of Mar 20th, 2026 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research FIGURE 15. Semiconductor earnings are growing rapidly with a roughly 3-year cycle length  FIGURE 16. 3-year "CAPE" shows no relationship with 3-year forward return $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 T12M SOX EPS -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 3-Yr Forward Returns Percentile of Current CAPE in Last 3 Years Data as of Mar 27th, 2026 Data as of March 27th, 2026 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Adjusting valuations for growth As discussed in a previous section, CAPE anchoring to long-run inflation-adjusted earnings risks missing rapid shifts in underlying fundamentals, a critical concern when the main secular growth driver for US equities is a once-in-a-generation transformational technology. In fact, the semiconductor industry is a good example of how CAPE can occasionally exaggerate valuations looking "too high" when earnings growth is rapidly accelerating. We calculate a quasi-CAPE for the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX), using 3-year inflation-adjusted earnings instead of 10-year to better align with underlying growth cyclicality, and regressed forward 3-year returns on said quasi-CAPE, finding minimal relationship despite our valuation metric fluctuating substantially from 15x to 50x+ over the last 25 years. Given the rapid change taking place across the technology landscape today, we think this is a good example of how CAPE can be too eager to flash warning signs when the earnings growth trajectory is being reshaped.  31 March 2026 7 Barclays | US Equity Insights Constructive, not complacent Ultimately, we believe the broader macro backdrop remains constructive despite the recent bearish tape, supported by higher PMI readings, well-anchored UST yields, and upwardly trending revisions to forward EPS estimates. Tech has already delivered substantial growth and continues to generate strong profits, which is crucial given that TMT now represents 43% of the S&P 500. We view the recent sell-off largely as the market pricing in geopolitical risk, though we note that the S&P 500 ex-Big Tech still trades at 18.6x versus its 10-year median of 17.7x. We acknowledge CAPE as a risk to our thesis, particularly for those with a longer investment horizon and with respect to elevated valuations that are in some ways even more systemic than during the Dotcom bubble, but we believe today’s valuation premium reflects fundamental progress. S&P 500 margins continue to expand and the technology landscape is evolving rapidly, dynamics which CAPE can miss given its long look-back window. 31 March 2026 8 Barclays | US Equity Insights Analyst(s) Certification(s): I, Venu Krishna, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. 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Nothing in these materials, including any images included therein, is intended to convey, suggest or indicate that Barclays considers 31 March 2026 12 Barclays | US Equity Insights or represents any product, service, person or body mentioned in these materials as meeting or qualifying for any ESG or sustainability classification, label or similar standards that may exist under ESG Regimes. Barclays has not conducted any assessment of compliance with ESG Regimes. Parties are reminded to make their own assessments for these purposes. IRS Circular 230 Prepared Materials Disclaimer: Barclays does not provide tax advice and nothing contained herein should be construed to be tax advice. 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