ab 31 March 2026 Global Research US Equity Strategy Simply U.S.A.: Stagflation probability rising Earnings revisions have driven Energy to the top of our scorecard this month ˜ Energy, Comm Srvcs, and Cons Staples are at the top of our S&P 500 sector scorecard. While Energy and Cons Staples don't necessarily appear cheap, all three score well across our REVS framework. ˜ Construction Materials, and Comm & Prof Srvcs look vulnerable on deeply negative earnings scores. ˜ AI Semis and AI Robotics continue to top of our Thematic rankings. Regime: Oil disruption trickles through data, Stagflation probability jumping We wrote last week that equities face an asymmetric outlook across oil disruption scenarios. In a quick resolution, S&P 500 is expected to rebound quickly toward 7,150 by year-end, while a two-month shock could trigger a correction to ~6,000 before a partial recovery. An extended disruption risks a deeper bear market, with the S&P 500 potentially falling to ~5,350 amid a possible recession and earnings downgrades. The Fed’s reaction function across these scenarios would impact the pace of recovery. Technology PMIs have fallen 4.5 pts over the past 3mo. Healthcare (+3pts) and Materials (+0.8pts) are the only sectors with PMI gains last month. Market-implied Stagflation probability has jumped to 27% (low growth with high inflation) while Recession probability has continued to rise since mid-December to ~25%. Time-weighted average performance of S&P 500 Industry Groups during supply-driven oil price shocks would support our scorecard preference for Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Staples (Figure 16). Earnings: Revisions drove Energy to the top of our scorecard this month While earnings revisions remain concentrated in Semis (~20%) and Tech+, Energy has witnessed notable increase in earnings expectations amidst Strait of Hormuz closure. Consensus still expects >20% EPS growth in 2026 from Semis, Mining, Containers & Packaging, and Autos, though latter two have seen negative revisions over the past three months. Cons Dur, Telecom, and Food Products have all seen negative revisions and now carry lowest growth expectations. S&P 500 EPS growth is now ~17% in 2026. Valuations: ex-Tech valuations increased as Tech valuations have fallen S&P 500 valuations have fallen sharply over the past month, now trading ~19x, nearing our discount rate proxy (Figure 26). Continued reduction in pricing of "growth optimism" would suggest another 0.5-0.8x comes off the multiple at current levels. Tech + valuations have fallen most significantly in the re-rating, now 20x, down from 23.5x at the end of Feb. Mag 7 at 22.8x is just above the Liberation Day lows of 22.3x. Sentiment: Tech+ sentiment improved in our thematic scorecard S&P 500 aggregate and median crowding levels have remained elevated and little changed through March, while select sectors such as Software have seen significant declines on a median basis. Since October the median crowding score in Software has fallen -1stddev. UBS crowding data points to a recent rotation from Food, Beverage & Tobacco and Pharma into Autos and HH & Personal Products. Retail has the widest gap between the aggregate and median crowding scores across Industry Groups. Our Theme-ometer shows sentiment toward Mag 7 stocks and AI-related themes, primarily Semiconductors, has improved and remains supported by EPS revisions. Our positioning beta analysis indicates balanced funds remain above average and our composite beta positioning indicator remains elevated. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 17. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Equity Strategy Americas Sean Simonds Strategist sean.simonds@ubs.com +1-212-713 2851 Gerry Fowler Strategist gerry.fowler@ubs.com +44-20-7567 5490 Maxwell Grinacoff, CFA Strategist maxwell.grinacoff@ubs.com +1-212-713 3892 Nicolas Le Roux Strategist nicolas.le-roux@ubs.com +33-14-953 2118 Bhanu Baweja Strategist bhanu.baweja@ubs.com +44-20-7568 6833 This report is intended exclusively for: aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com This report is intended exclusively for: aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com This report is intended exclusively for: aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 2 Energy has jumped to the top of our scorecard with extremely positive revisions Energy has jumped to the top of our scorecard as positive earnings momentum reversed a deeply negative earnings score in prior months. Consumer Staples has improved materially driven by improved sentiment and positive earnings revisions. Utilities remains positive and our preferred defensive sector. Media & Entertainment, Metals & Mining, Food Bev & Tobacco, and Telecoms currently lead among Industry Groups. Top-ranked stocks include Sensata Technologies Holding, Exelon Corp, and Alphabet Inc. Conversely, Construction Materials, and Comm & Prof Srvcs look vulnerable on deeply negative earnings scores, with lower-ranked names such as Ares Management Corp, Paypal Holdings Inc, and Caesars Entertainment Inc. Software scores poorly this month on now significantly vulnerable sentiment scores. Real Estate remains our lowest-ranked sector. Figure 1: R.E.V.S. favors Energy, Comm Services, Staples and Utilities– Stocks in report Regime Score Earnings Score Valuation Score Sentiment Score Weighted Score Crowding Score Earnings Revisions Energy 0.60 0.45 0.03 0.28 0.39 Comm Svs 0.28 0.46 0.33 0.35 0.35 Cons Staples 0.31 0.07 0.04 0.41 0.22 Utilities 0.17 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.17 Industrials 0.45 -0.03 -0.18 0.26 0.16 Materials 0.20 -0.09 0.16 0.30 0.13 Health Care 0.08 0.12 0.05 0.01 0.07 Info Tech 0.29 0.14 -0.38 -0.07 0.05 Cons Disc 0.11 -0.10 0.02 -0.02 0.00 Financials -0.16 0.03 0.33 -0.08 -0.01 Real Estate -0.27 0.13 -0.07 0.10 -0.03 Energy 0.60 0.45 0.03 0.28 0.39 Media & Entertainment 0.28 0.47 0.31 0.40 0.36 Metals & Mining 0.47 0.59 0.00 0.12 0.35 Food Bev & Tob 0.35 0.29 0.23 0.31 0.30 Telecoms 0.29 0.41 0.43 -0.12 0.25 Transportation 0.44 -0.16 0.16 0.49 0.23 Food & Stp Rtl 0.43 -0.09 -0.34 0.59 0.20 Cap Goods 0.52 0.01 -0.28 0.25 0.18 Semis & Equipment 0.42 0.14 -0.24 0.19 0.18 Utilities 0.17 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.17 Chemicals 0.13 -0.23 0.22 0.39 0.10 Tech Hrdwr 0.65 0.07 -0.68 -0.09 0.09 Banks -0.10 0.22 0.43 -0.08 0.08 HH & Pers Products -0.07 -0.10 0.44 0.25 0.08 Pharma & Biotech -0.07 0.23 0.00 0.11 0.08 Containers & Packaging 0.30 -0.55 0.27 0.27 0.06 Cons Dur & Apparel 0.09 0.04 -0.09 0.15 0.06 HC Equip & Srvcs 0.36 -0.08 0.15 -0.19 0.06 Retail -0.03 -0.10 0.35 0.07 0.03 Real Estate Mgmt -0.27 0.13 -0.07 0.10 -0.03 Auto Components 0.60 -0.06 -0.80 -0.32 -0.04 Insurance -0.04 0.01 0.29 -0.33 -0.05 Cons Srvcs -0.15 -0.20 0.22 0.08 -0.05 Div Financials -0.22 -0.07 0.28 -0.01 -0.05 Comm & Prof Srvcs -0.11 -0.20 0.13 0.04 -0.06 Software -0.35 0.19 -0.31 -0.51 -0.22 Construction Materials -0.22 -0.79 -0.05 0.01 -0.31 Source: UBS; REVS range from +/-1; Data a/o Mar 25; See whitepaper + latest update aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 3 US Equity Strategy UBS Research Thematic Rankings Figure 2: R.E.V.S. AI-Exposed Semis have remained on the top of our Thematic scorecard, while the Mag 7 score fell slightly Name Ticker 1-mth YTD Regime Score Earnings Score Valuation Score Sentiment Score Weighted Score Crowding Score Earnings Revisions US Magnificent 7 UBXXMAG7 0.40 0.22 -0.02 0.16 0.22 AI-Exposed Semis UBXXSEMA 0.69 0.25 0.06 0.38 0.39 Short Cycle Industrials UBXXSCYC 0.46 0.11 0.05 0.51 0.31 AI Robotics UBXXAIRB 0.54 0.22 0.07 0.24 0.30 US AI Winners UBXXAIW 0.45 0.33 -0.10 0.19 0.27 US Reshoring UBXXSHOR 0.46 0.27 0.03 0.05 0.23 AI Power UBXXVOLT 0.45 0.21 -0.06 0.13 0.22 US Low Income Consumer UBXXLOWC 0.07 0.33 0.26 0.16 0.20 US Infrastructure UBXXINFR 0.36 0.20 0.03 0.08 0.19 Tangible Assets UBXXTANG 0.26 0.08 0.00 0.35 0.19 AI Renewable Power UBXXAIRP 0.59 0.01 -0.11 0.09 0.19 Long Cycle Industrials UBXXLCYC 0.42 0.07 -0.12 0.21 0.18 Defense Primes+ UBXXPRME 0.46 -0.21 -0.11 0.37 0.15 Trump Tariff Losers UBXXTTL 0.20 0.14 0.26 0.02 0.15 US Defense Spending UBXXSPND 0.48 -0.12 -0.21 0.27 0.14 US Renewable Energy UBXXRNEW 0.46 0.11 -0.42 0.09 0.13 US Consumer Cyclicals UBXXCCYC 0.10 0.08 0.16 0.17 0.12 GLP-1 Winners UBXXGLPW 0.12 0.27 0.05 -0.01 0.12 MAHA Risk UBXXMAHA 0.11 0.13 0.18 0.06 0.11 AI Adopters UBXXAIAD 0.07 0.02 0.22 0.16 0.10 Regional Banks UBXXRGBK -0.07 0.00 0.39 0.24 0.10 Software AI Resilient UBXXSORT -0.16 0.26 0.11 -0.21 -0.01 Speculative Growth UBXXSPEC 0.34 0.08 -0.72 -0.11 -0.01 Intangible Assets UBXXINTG -0.09 0.03 0.20 -0.15 -0.03 US Housing UBXXHOME 0.02 -0.30 0.18 -0.01 -0.06 Software AI Risk UBXXSORK -0.26 0.00 0.39 -0.29 -0.09 US Listed International Exposure UBXXINTL 0.23 0.15 0.17 0.12 0.17 US Listed Domestic Exposure UBXXUSA 0.13 0.05 0.21 0.10 0.11 US Cyclicals UBXXCYCL 0.26 0.23 0.14 0.33 0.25 US Defensives UBXXDEFS 0.11 0.09 0.29 0.16 0.14 US Late Cycle UBXXLATE 0.17 0.18 0.21 0.23 0.19 US Early Cycle UBXXERLY 0.13 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.13 US Growth UBXXPGRO 0.18 0.17 0.02 -0.05 0.09 US Value UBXXPVAL 0.08 0.16 0.27 0.28 0.18 US Quality UBXXHIQL 0.11 0.09 0.14 -0.04 0.07 US Momentum UBQQHMTM 0.38 0.23 -0.45 0.11 0.14 Performance Source: Bloomberg, UBS. REVS scores scaled from +/-1. Data a/o Mar 25 Some of the above referred basket(s) are similar to baskets constructed by UBS Global Markets and can be accessed in Bloomberg. For more information, please contact your sales/trading representative. UBS Global Markets is a separate business to UBS Research and does not provide investment research. aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 4 US Equity Strategy UBS Research R.E.V.S. Stocks ˜ For comprehensive detail on our tactical model, please see our whitepaper here ˜ For the monthly global scoring of thematic baskets, please see here Figure 3: Top and bottom-ranked stocks Highest REVS scores BBG Ticker Name Country Industry Price (local) Mkt Cap ($ bn) 12m fwd Div Yield (%) 2026e PE 2027e PE REVS Score Price chg (since 31-Dec) ST UN Sensata Technologies Holding US Capital Goods 34.79 5.1 1.4 10 9 1.57 2.3% EXC UW Exelon Corp US Utilities 49.23 50.4 3.3 17 16 1.57 13.9% GOOGL UW Alphabet Inc-Cl A US Media & Entertainment 273.36 3302.9 0.3 22 19 1.56 -12.6% TTC UN Toro Co US Capital Goods 91.33 8.9 1.7 20 18 1.56 16.5% NVST US Envista Holdings Corp US Health Care Equipment & Servic 24.53 4.0 na 17 16 1.50 13.0% XEL UW Xcel Energy Inc US Utilities 79.41 49.5 2.9 19 18 1.44 8.3% TER UW Teradyne Inc US Semiconductors & Semiconductor 295.61 46.3 0.2 48 35 1.44 44.8% KMT US Kennametal Inc US Capital Goods 35.39 2.7 2.3 15 14 1.38 25.2% KEYS UN Keysight Technologies In US Technology Hardware & Equipmen 279.06 47.9 na 31 27 1.37 33.3% GXO US Gxo Logistics Inc US Transportation 49.64 5.7 na 17 15 1.36 -5.0% CMS UN Cms Energy Corp US Utilities 77.47 23.9 2.8 20 19 1.35 11.6% AMN US Amn Healthcare Services Inc US Health Care Equipment & Servic 18.82 0.7 na 9 18 1.32 19.4% APG US Api Group Corp US Capital Goods 39.91 17.2 na 24 21 1.31 3.0% HPE UN Hewlett Packard Enterprise US Technology Hardware & Equipmen 23.36 31.0 2.3 10 9 1.31 -2.1% EHAB US Enhabit Inc US Health Care Equipment & Servic 13.66 0.7 na 23 22 1.30 52.0% AME UN Ametek Inc US Capital Goods 209.75 48.0 0.6 26 24 1.27 2.3% MCK UN Mckesson Corp US Health Care Equipment & Servic 860.16 105.4 0.4 22 19 1.20 5.8% FLS US Flowserve Corp US Capital Goods 72.15 9.2 1.2 17 15 1.19 1.7% AEE UN Ameren Corporation US Utilities 108.72 30.1 2.6 20 19 1.10 11.0% ADI UW Analog Devices Inc US Semiconductors & Semiconductor 303.91 148.4 1.3 26 23 1.01 12.4% 197 1.7 21 19 1.36 12.8% Lowest REVS scores BBG Ticker Name Country Industry Price (local) Mkt Cap ($ bn) 12m fwd Div Yield (%) 2026e PE 2027e PE REVS Score Price chg (since 31-Dec) JKHY UW Jack Henry & Associates Inc US Financial Services 155.55 11.2 1.5 24 22 -0.96 -14.4% HTGC US Hercules Capital Inc US Financial Services 14.08 2.6 13.4 7 7 -0.97 -22.9% SNBR US Sleep Number Corp US Consumer Discretionary Distrib 2.12 0.0 na na 6 -0.99 -74.9% TPVG US Triplepoint Venture Growth B US Financial Services 4.60 0.2 22.0 5 6 -1.00 -26.6% PFSI US Pennymac Financial Services US Financial Services 85.64 4.5 1.4 7 5 -1.04 -34.8% HLNE US Hamilton Lane Inc-Class A US Financial Services 96.29 5.4 2.2 17 15 -1.07 -27.9% CHGG US Chegg Inc US Consumer Services 0.69 0.1 na na na -1.08 -25.4% EVGO US Evgo Inc US Consumer Discretionary Distrib 1.70 0.5 na na na -1.09 -41.8% GPMT US Granite Point Mortgage Trust US Financial Services 1.41 0.1 14.2 na na -1.10 -41.5% TSCO UW Tractor Supply Company US Consumer Discretionary Distrib 45.38 23.9 2.0 21 19 -1.20 -8.8% BBIO US Bridgebio Pharma Inc US Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology 69.15 13.4 na na 124 -1.21 -9.6% PLCE US Children'S Place Inc/The US Consumer Discretionary Distrib 3.07 0.1 na na na -1.23 -22.9% ARE UN Alexandria Real Estate Equit US Equity Real Estate Investment 46.97 8.1 10.0 27 54 -1.24 -4.0% FISV US Fiserv US Financial Services 54.31 29.0 na 7 6 -1.30 -19.1% APO UN Apollo Global Management Inc US Financial Services 109.21 63.2 1.9 12 10 -1.30 -24.2% RC US Ready Capital Corp US Financial Services 1.58 0.3 24.4 na na -1.31 -27.8% SG US Sweetgreen Inc - Class A US Consumer Services 4.62 0.5 na na na -1.32 -31.7% CZR UW Caesars Entertainment Inc US Consumer Services 25.85 5.3 na na 64 -1.40 8.7% PYPL UW Paypal Holdings Inc US Financial Services 44.52 41.0 0.6 8 8 -1.41 -23.5% ARES UN Ares Management Corp - A US Financial Services 106.57 35.3 4.4 17 14 -1.57 -33.2% 12 8.2 14 26 -1.19 -25.3% Source: UBS REVS score; Bloomberg; REVS Score a/o Mar 25 Figure 4: 4w quartile returns based on REVS scores (ACWI universe) -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Monthly 'alpha' - ACWI Scores >0.5 versus <-0.5 Expanding average Source: Bloomberg, UBS. Calculation based on average 4wk returns for top vs bottom quartile stocks. aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 5 US Equity Strategy UBS Research Catalyst Calendar Figure 5: Key dates over the next month Economics 1-Apr-26 Manufacturing ISM 1-Apr-26 Retail Sales (Feb) 3-Apr-26 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 6-Apr-26 Services ISM 7-Apr-26 Durable Goods Orders (Feb prelim) 10-Apr-26 Durable Goods Orders (Feb final) 10-Apr-26 CPI 10-Apr-26 U. of Mich. Sentiment 16-Apr-26 Industrial Production 21-Apr-26 Retail Sales (Mar) 29-Apr-26 Durable Goods Orders (Mar advance) Central banks 29-Apr-26 FED 30-Apr-26 ECB 30-Apr-26 BOE 28-Apr-26 BOJ Source: UBS Figure 6: S&P 500 vs Early Warning Signal 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 S&P 500 directional risk signal: Difference in model expected probability for +5% rally vs -5% fall S&P 500 (RHS) +/- 1 Stdev Upside risk to equitiesDownside risk to equities Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, UBS Figure 7: Drivers of current signal reading -0.9% 30.2% 15% 14% 9% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% -3% -4% -4% -6% -8% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Base value ISM Mfg New Orders: 3mchg VIX US corp HY spread Margin revisions: 3m % chg ISM Mfg New Orders Futures Net Long: 3mchg SKEW index: 3mchg Oil prices: 3mchg Futures Net Long US 10y Breakeven US 10y real yield: 3mchg US corp HY spread: 3mchg Other Net probability Machine learning model - net probability of 5% rally vs decline Rising likelihood of market decline Rising likelihood of market rally -1Stdev +1Stdev Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, UBS aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 6 US Equity Strategy UBS Research Regime Figure 8: The CLI maintains expansion probability 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 OECD CLI level (US equity wgtd) Recovery Expansion Slowdown Downturn Source: OECD, UBS Figure 9: OECD CLIs remain in expansion 200 1200 2200 3200 4200 5200 6200 7200 8200 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 SPX Index Level Recovery Expansion Slowdown Downturn Source: Bloomberg, UBS Figure 10: Sector weighted S&P 500 PMIs have been stable in Slowdown 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 PMI Output level (SPX equity wgtd) Recovery Expansion Slowdown Downturn Source: S&P Global, UBS Figure 11: Fed Policy Expectations and 10yr Real Yields have become the lead drivers of S&P 500 performance 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 US 10y real yield AI Narrative 2-10 Yield Curve Fed policy expectations US 10y breakeven US economic activity Russia/Ukraine tensions Drivers of market moves: % contribution to S&P 500 returns (rolling 3m) Source: Bloomberg, UBS Figure 12: Consumer Services and Technology PMIs declined significantly on a 3mo basis, while Healthcare improved last month Latest Change 1mo 3mo avg Change 3mo Technology 51.8 -0.8 51.6 -4.5 Financials 52.8 -1.9 53.4 -5.3 Consumer Services 48.0 -2.4 48.5 -5.5 Materials 49.8 0.8 49.3 -4.3 Consumer Non-Cyc 53.1 -2.1 54.4 -0.6 Consumer Goods 52.7 -3.1 54.8 0.6 Industrials 53.1 -2.7 54.6 2.4 Healthcare 54.5 3.0 53.5 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, UBS Figure 13: Equities have been in a “good news is good news” environment over the past month -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 S&P 500 correlation to economic surprise index (1d chg, rolling 1mo) 1mo rolling daily correl Good news is good news/ bad news is bad news Good news is bad news/ bad news is good news Source: Bloomberg, UBS aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 7 Figure 14: The market probability of Stagflation has risen sharply since start of the Middle East conflict 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 Stagflation Equity market implied Stagflation probability (next 6mo) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 22 23 24 25 26 -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Energy Food Bev & Tob Utilities Telecom Pharma Biotech & LS Food & Stap Retail Insurance HH & Personal Prod HC Equip & Svcs Consumer Svcs Capital Goods Materials Tech Hdwr & Equip Banks Transportation Software & Svcs Div Financials Retailing Autos & Comp Media & Entertain Cons Dur & App Semis & Equip Estimated relative return from a 10ppt increase in equity market implied stagflation probability Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, UBS; More details in our Tactical Dashboard Figure 15: The Value rotation has driven our market-implied Recession probability higher since December 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 Recession Equity market implied Recession probability (next 6mo) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 22 23 24 25 26 -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Telecom Utilities Food Bev & Tob Food & Stap Retail Pharma Biotech & LS HH & Personal Prod HC Equip & Svcs Insurance Energy Consumer Svcs Software & Svcs Materials Capital Goods Transportation Retailing Media & Entertain Banks Div Financials Cons Dur & App Semis & Equip Tech Hdwr & Equip Autos & Comp Estimated relative return from a 10ppt increase in equity market implied Recession probability Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, UBS; More details in our Tactical Dashboard aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 8 Figure 16: S&P 500 time weighted average perf. during historical periods of supply-driven oil price increase 2% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -6% -7% -11% -13% 2% -1% -1% -3% -4% -4% -4% -4% -4% -4% -5% -5% -6% -6% -8% -9% -10%-11% -12%-12% -14% -16% -17% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Sectors Industry Groups 18% 18% Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, UBS. Note: Historical episodes since 1990 included in the calculation of time-weighted average. aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 9 US Equity Strategy UBS Research Earnings Figure 17: 2026 Sales growth expectations are ~8% for the index (5) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Semis Media & Entertain Mining Tech Hdwr Software & Svcs Retail Beverages S&P 500 Food Prod Consr Svs Cont & Pack Cap Gds Real Estate Banks Div Fin Utilities Pharma Transport Tobacco Const Mat Food Retail Insurance HC Equip & Svcs Comm Svs Chemicals Autos HH & Per Prod Telecom Cons Dur Energy 2026e (up) 2026e (down) 2026e (3m ago) Source: FactSet, UBS Figure 18: 2026 EPS growth expectations have risen to ~17% (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Semis Mining Cont & Pack Autos Tech Hdwr Chemicals Media & Entertain S&P 500 Software & Svcs Banks Const Mat Consr Svs Energy Cap Gds Utilities Div Fin Food Retail Tobacco Comm Svs Retail HC Equip & Svcs Beverages Pharma Real Estate HH & Per Prod Transport Insurance Food Prod Telecom Cons Dur 2026e (up) 2026e (down) 2026e (3m ago) Source: FactSet, UBS Figure 19: Energy, Semis, and Materials experienced the highest positive revisions last month -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Semis & Equip Telecom Materials Tech Hdwr & Equip Energy S&P 500 Software & Svcs Banks Utilities Insurance HH & Personal Prod Transportation Div Financials Food & Stap Retail Autos & Comp HC Equip & Svcs Capital Goods Food Bev & Tob Consumer Svcs Real Estate Retailing Comm & Prof Svcs Cons Dur & App Pharma Biotech & LS Media & Entertain Current 1m ago Source: Bloomberg, UBS Figure 20: Tech+ and Big 6 earnings gap is expected to normalize in 2026; The memory trade has driven Tech+ ex Big 6 earnings higher -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Mar 22 Sep 22 Mar 23 Sep 23 Mar 24 Sep 24 Mar 25 Sep 25 Mar 26 Sep 26 Tech+ minus S&P ex tech+ EPS growth YoY (%) Top 6 Tech+ minus S&P ex tech+ EPS growth YoY (%) forecast Source: FactSet, UBS Figure 21: Revision breadth has weakened in large caps but remains positive, small caps closer to neutral -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 NTM EPS revision ratio (%, 4 wk rolling avg)S&P 500 S&P 600 Source: FactSet, UBS Figure 22: Cyclical earnings revisions have turned positive, while non-cyclical revisions remain steady -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Cyclical Non Cyclical Source: FactSet, UBS; Note: Cyclicals = Ene, Mat, Ind, Disc; Non Cyclicals = Utilities, HC, REITs, Staples, Comm Svcs aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 10 ValuationS Figure 23: Nasdaq 100 EV / EBITDA vs Capex adjustment 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 EV / EBITDA - Capex EV / EBITDA (rhs) Source: UBS, FactSet, Bloomberg Figure 24: Russell 1000 high vs low P/B valuation 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 99 04 09 14 19 24 -1 stdev +1 stdev Avg Source: UBS, UBS Quant Research Figure 25: Industry Group EBIT margin (%) relative to 20-80th%iles and 3yr average 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 20-80%ile Sector EBIT Margin (%) Median 3yr average Sector EBIT Margin (%) Source: FactSet, UBS Figure 26: S&P 500 valuations have declined significantly, as growth optimism has faded, bringing valuations near in-line with the discount rate 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.515 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 Discount rate proxy SPX Forward PE SPX Forward PE US 10-yr yield + Corporate High Yield OAS Growth optimism Source: UBS, Bloomberg Figure 27: S&P 500 Tech+ valuations have fallen sharply; ex-Tech+ and the broader market have declined as well 20.8 18.1 19.2 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Tech+ ex-Tech+ S&P 500 Source: UBS, FactSet aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 11 SenTIment Figure 28: S&P 500 aggregate crowding (net longs) have remained elevated 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Weighted Avg Median Source: UBS; Crowding scores range +/-30 with standard deviation around 7; Sectors are market cap weighted from single stock crowding scores Figure 29: Software aggregate crowding (net longs) have fallen significantly but farther at the median 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Weighted Avg Median Source: UBS; Crowding scores range +/-30 with standard deviation around 7; Sectors are market cap weighted from single stock crowding scores Figure 30: Crowding scores relative to 20-80th%iles and Median, tickers = max & min LRCX COST SPGI TJX META NOW APH PG FDX C BMY GE FCX UNH EXE CB TMUS RL ABNB CPRT TSN EQIX PCG GM ON KR CBOE WSM TTD GEN SMCI KMB LUV MTB WAT LII AMCR BAX TPL ERIE T NKE WYNN PAYC CPB PSA D TSLA -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 S&P 500 Semis Food & Stap Retail Fin. Srvces Cons. Disc. (retail) Media Software Tech hardware Household/Personal Transportation Banks Pharma Capital Goods Materials Healthcare Equip Energy Insurance Telecom Cons Dur & App Cons. Srvcs Comm/Prof Srvcs Food Bev & Tob Real Estate Utilities Autos 80%ile - 20%ile Weighted Avg Median Source: UBS; Crowding scores range +/-30 with standard deviation around 7 aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 12 Figure 31: Latest crowding score changes show rotation from pharma and Food, Bev & Tob into Autos and HH&P -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Semis Food & Stap Retail Fin. Srvces Cons. Disc. (retail) Media Software Tech hardware Household/Personal Transportation Banks Pharma Capital Goods Materials Healthcare Equip Energy Insurance Telecom Cons Dur & App Cons. Srvcs Comm/Prof Srvcs Food Bev & Tob Real Estate Utilities Autos Crowding score Weighted Avg 1m ago 3m ago Source: UBS; Crowding scores range +/-30 with standard deviation around 7; Sectors are market cap weighted from single stock crowding scores Figure 32: Median 3-month crowding scores fell most in Autos, Cons. Disc. (retail), and Software, while Food & Staples Retail saw the largest increases -5 0 5 10 15 20 Food & Stap Retail Banks Fin. Srvces Semis Pharma Tech hardware Cons Dur & App Healthcare Equip Energy Telecom Transportation Capital Goods Media Comm/Prof Srvcs Insurance Autos Materials Software Utilities Cons. Srvcs Real Estate Household/Personal Food Bev & Tob Cons. Disc. (retail) Crowding score Median 1mo ago 3mo ago Source: UBS; Crowding scores range +/-30 with standard deviation around 7; Sectors are market cap weighted from single stock crowding scores Figure 33: Our composite positioning beta has increased and remains above the historical average 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 4000 4400 4800 5200 5600 6000 6400 6800 7200 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 US composite beta (z-score, lhs) S&P 500 (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, UBS; More details in our Tactical Dashboard Figure 34: Active Manager positioning has increased over the past few weeks -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Composite beta Balanced Macro/CTA HFs L/S equity HFs Mkt neu eq HFs US equity MFs Growth MFs Value MFs Blend MFs Large cap MFs Mid cap MFs Small cap MFs Broad cap MFs Z-score Current 4 weeks ago Overweight Underweight Source: Bloomberg, UBS; More details in our Tactical Dashboard aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 13 US Equity Strategy UBS Research REVS – framework for tactical relative preferences Our Market REVS framework combines macro and micro elements to identify shorter- term relative preferences across countries, industry groups and styles. We believe the key drivers for equities are the: 1. Macro regime (R) 2. Earnings trends and surprises (E) 3. What's priced into valuations already (V) and 4. Changes in the sentiment of investors (S). Using some proprietary and public data, we created a structure that gives us useful indicators in these areas. Regime - Based on the current regime probability framework explained in the previous section, we can calculate a measure of potential performance for each country, industry group and style based on their performance in a similar regime distribution in the past. We do this at the macro and the sector level using OECD and PMI leading indicators. ˜ Macro Regime Probability model: Stock prices are greatly influenced by economic regimes. We calculate regime probability weighted historical returns to give us an indication of relative performance in the current environment. ˜ Sector PMI (New Orders) model: We utilise sector level PMI New Orders data to calculate a probability weighted sector regime score. Earnings - We think expectation changes are key drivers of relative returns between countries and industry groups. The two metrics we utilise in this area are: ˜ Machine learning EPS forecast vs consensus model - Our quant team have done excellent work in creating a model for 12-month forward single stock EPS growth. They have shown that this is more accurate than consensus estimates and particularly during periods of earnings volatility. We take the deviation of this machine learning estimate from consensus as a measure of potential earnings surprise. (link) ˜ EPS revision strength model - Analyst revisions to earnings estimates often coincide with share price performance. Many use simply the number of analyst upgrades versus downgrades but we think this misses too much information about the scale of upgrades and downgrades. We therefore look at the recent changes in the actual EPS estimate. Valuations - Whatever is happening in the macro regime or earnings, there is always a good chance this information is 'in the price'. A volatile and poorly performing sector might already be incredibly cheap and have less downside risk without further macro or earnings deterioration. Our valuation measures are designed to calibrate for the relative valuation already reflected in markets. ˜ Adjusted Forward PE Ratio model: Value is a popular strategy for patient investors. We enhance one of the most popular valuation indictors, the fPE Ratio, by adjusting the numerator (i.e. prices) by the quality of the companies' balance sheets ˜ (Extreme) Rates Momentum model: The speed and magnitude of bond moves are ones of the key factors of investors' risk appetite and valuation changes. Increasing equity exposure after a strong rally or sell-off in rates has historically been rewarded with rising valuations. Sentiment - Other factors not captured in our regime, earnings or valuation metrics relate to market structure. Specifically, we look to whether recent trends in investor activity give us an indication of momentum/exhaustion. The metrics we consider are: ˜ Crowding model - Our quant team have utilised a variety of sources including market-wide prime brokerage data to generate a crowding score at the stock level. We have aggregated this to the country and industry level taking into consideration both the level of crowding and the change in crowding. At an extreme, positioning can be a good contrarian signal. (link) Start your engines! Market REVS incorporates signals from key market drivers. R is for Regime. The macro economy can be significant or dominant in equity market returns. E is for Earnings. The micro economy can also be a source of differentiation within and through regimes. V is for Valuations. We look for differentiation in what is priced in to markets already. S is for Sentiment. We think shorter term measures of market positioning and flows further enhance our understanding. aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 14 ˜ Up & Down Volatility model: This is a price-based indicator of positioning that gauges the probability of a trend reversal based on the recent balance of upside versus downside volatility. ˜ CTA Momentum models: These aim to benefit from the persistence in asset prices. Our CTA trend-following algorithm is applied on 1) stock, 2) industry, 3) sector, and 4) country index prices. We believe our REVS framework pulls together some key variables that will help us determine relative preferences for countries and industry groups. We can be adaptive in our weighting of each measure as market conditions change. Figure 35: Backtests of the REVS models as a systematic strategy Source: UBS, Roux, N., How to pick stocks using Quantamental signals Figure 36: Low correlation between models helps balance offsetting drivers Source: UBS, Roux, N., How to pick stocks using Quantamental signals aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 15 Figure 37: Model weightings in REVS as a systematic strategy Source: UBS, Roux, N., How to pick stocks using Quantamental signals Figure 38: Model half-life estimates show the REVS framework has a 2-6 month tactical horizon Source: UBS, Roux, N., How to pick stocks using Quantamental signals aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 16 Valuation Method and Risk Statement Equity market returns are influenced by corporate earnings, interest rates, risk premia, as well as other variables influenced by the business cycle. The outlook for any and all of these variables is subject to change. aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 17 Required Disclosures This document has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS". For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 30 March 2026 11:02 PM GMT. 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UBS Global Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions 12-Month Rating Definition Coverage1 IB Services2 Buy FSR is > 6% above the MRA. 52% 24% Neutral FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA. 41% 22% Sell FSR is > 6% below the MRA. 7% 25% Short-Term Rating Definition Coverage3 IB Services4 Buy Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. <1% <1% Sell Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. <1% <1% Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 31 December 2025. 1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category. 2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months. 3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category. 4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months. aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com aweinberg@ btig.com US Equity Strategy31 March 2026 ab 18 KEY DEFINITIONS:Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. In some cases, this yield may be based on accrued dividends. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium). 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As a result, stocks deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece. Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by any non-US affiliate of UBS Securities LLC are not registered/ qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such analysts may not be associated persons of UBS Securities LLC and therefore are not subject to the FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. The name of each affiliate and analyst employed by that affiliate contributing to this report, if any, follows. UBS AG London Branch: Bhanu Baweja, Gerry Fowler.UBS Europe SE: Nicolas Le Roux.UBS Securities LLC: Maxwell Grinacoff, CFA, Sean Simonds. 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