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Energy_-_Offshore_Services_Monthly_-_BTIG.pdf
ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORT
Energy: Offshore Services Monthly
Floater Activity Rebounds to Highest Level Since June and Some
Thoughts around the Longer-Term Impact on Offshore Barrels from the
Ongoing War in Iran.
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: March floater activity averaged ~120 working rigs which
was up ~5 rigs M-M and saw floater activity rebound to its highest level since 2Q25
driven by incremental rigs going to work in Brazil, LatAm, US Gulf and AsiaPac. While
we note that seasonality plays a role (floater activity peaked in Q2 in 2025 and Q3 in
both 2024 and 2023), March activity was up ~3% (~3 rigs) from the trailing 12-month
average. Additionally, the contracted floater fleet (includes idle rigs scheduled to go to
work) ticked up ~1 rig to ~140 floaters which is its highest level since 4Q24, keeping
us bullish on the group despite our expectation of some choppiness in activity over
the next few quarters as we expect 4-5 floaters rolling off this quarter to have some
downtime between contracts. Bigger picture, we expect floater activity on average
to push higher (thinking 4%-5% annually) in both 2026 and 2027 which should push
utilization higher near term with pricing picking up in 2027.
■ Risk Adjusting Offshore Oil and Gas. While we expect the ongoing supply
issues (both oil and LNG) out of the Arabian Gulf (think some of the cheapest
hydrocarbons on earth) to eventually be resolved, on a risk-adjusted basis the rest
of the world's oil and gas has become more attractive. Bottom line: energy security
and certainty of supply matter, and with ~40 MBD (~40% of global demand) of crude
oil transported on the water every day (~17-18 MBD from the Middle East) we have
to think that oil and natural gas resources outside of the Middle East have become
more valuable or, at a minimum, potential offshore projects in Africa and LatAm on
a risk adjusted basis are less risky than they were a month ago.
■ Watching Brazil. Foresea (Private), a local Brazilian company, fixed the ODN I (6G
Drillship) for ~4 years at ~$320k/day (incl. mob) with Petrobras (PBR, Not Rated).
We note that this rate was below what we believe to be leading edge 7G drillship
rates in the $400k+ range. Interestingly, there was nil push back from investors
around this contract, with more of the Brazil focus around the expected contract
blends and extends of multi-year contracts that were fixed in the $450k+ range
(see: February OSM). We note that of the ~36 floaters in Brazil only ~33% are 7G
drillships (includes 2 contracted by an IOC) which could see some 7G drillships move
out of Brazil.
■ More Jackup Consolidation. Last week, Borr (BORR, Neutral) announced it will
acquire five jackups from Paratus (PLSV, Not Rated) in a newly formed JV of which
Borr will own ~50%. This is BORR's second multi-rig acquisition in four months
(bought 5 jackups from Noble (NE, Buy, $55 PT) with the deal closing in January)
which should increase its fleet ~40%. We like the move, despite what we expect to
be a soft patch in Middle East activity until the war in Iran is resolved.
■ PSV Rates Showing Signs of Life. PSV activity in March was up ~1% M-M (~4% below
its TTM average), with the sequential activity increase driven by North America
(+8%) and the Middle East (+4%), partially offset by lower activity in APAC (-2%),
LatAm (-1%), and WAFA (-1%). We expect Middle East activity to slow next month.
Turning to pricing, we saw PSV rates rise in WAFA and March marked the 5th
consecutive month that we saw a large PSV rate increase in WAFA. Despite the
recent rally, WAFA large PSV rates are still down ~7% Y-Y , with small PSV rates down
~13%. The North Sea also saw large and small PSV rates rise 6%-7% M-M (think
seasonal pickup), marking the region's first sequential rate increase in ~2 years.
March 31, 2026
Gregory Lewis, CFA
(212) 588-6543 glewis@btig.com
Ben Sommers
(212) 738-6049 bsommers@btig.com
Sherif Elmaghrabi
(332) 400-5177 selmaghrabi@btig.com
PLEASE READ: IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST’S CERTIFICATION APPEAR IN APPENDIX WWW.BTIG.COM
This report is intended for aweinberg@btig.com. Unauthorized distribution prohibited.
Focus Charts
Exhibits 1 & 2: The working floater count averaged ~120 rigs in March which was up ~5 rigs M-M and
down ~2 rigs Y-Y as offshore activity continues to navigate the pause in the cycle . The sequential
increase was driven by rigs going to work in the US GoM, Brazil, LATAM, and APAC. Looking at
jackups, the working count averaged ~349 rigs which was down ~4 rigs M-M but up ~14 rigs Y-Y. The
sequential decline was driven by rigs rolling off in LATAM and APAC, partially offset by a rig going to
work in the Middle East.
Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Source: Esgian, BTIG Research
Exhibits 3 & 4: Average leading-edge floater dayrates sit in the $400k-430k range, as the continued scarcity
of 7G drillships has kept rates relatively elevated despite broader activity weakness . Floater utilization is
averaging ~74% this quarter, which is up ~160 bps sequentially. Moving to jackups, premium dayrates sit
in the $120-$150k range, with utilization averaging ~83%, which is down ~70bps sequentially.
Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Source: Esgian, BTIG Research
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Mar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 Mar-24 Jul-24 Nov-24 Mar-25 Jul-25 Nov-25 Mar-26
Working Floater Count
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
Mar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 Mar-24 Jul-24 Nov-24 Mar-25 Jul-25 Nov-25 Mar-26
Working Jackup Count
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
150,000
300,000
450,000
600,000
750,000
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
1Q17
3Q17
1Q18
3Q18
1Q19
3Q19
1Q20
3Q20
1Q21
3Q21
1Q22
3Q22
1Q23
3Q23
1Q24
3Q24
1Q25
3Q25
1Q26
Marketed Utilization
Dayrate ($/day)
Floater Average Dayrate and Utilization
Avg Floater Rate Floater Utilization
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
1Q17
3Q17
1Q18
3Q18
1Q19
3Q19
1Q20
3Q20
1Q21
3Q21
1Q22
3Q22
1Q23
3Q23
1Q24
3Q24
1Q25
3Q25
1Q26
Marketed Utilization
Dayrate ($/day)
Jackup Average Dayrate and Utilization
Avg JU Rate JU Utilization
39603_6d541c56-963c-4583-9a2e-6d5e748b9ed6.pdf
BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com
2
ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORT
Exhibits 5 & 6: Floaters added ~91 years and ~64 years of drilling backlog, while jackups booked ~98 years
and ~183 years of drilling backlog in 2024 and 2025, respectively. So far in 2026, floaters and jackups have
added ~28 and ~9 years of drilling backlog, respectively.
Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Source: Esgian, BTIG Research
Exhibits 7 & 8: Drilling activity is currently struggling with Brent having averaged ~$68/bbl in 202 5 and
currently averaging ~$78/bbl in 2026.
Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Source: Esgian, BTIG Research
Exhibits 9 & 10: As the offshore drilling upcycle progresses, we expect strong levels of global subsea trees
awarded in 2026 with sustained demand over the next few years. We expect the value of subsea trees
globally to increase slightly with the Brent futures curve pointing to ~$73/bbl into 2029.
Source: Bloomberg, BTIG Research Source: Bloomberg, BTIG Research
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Floater Contract Duration by Fixed Year
*< 1 Year* 1-3 Years 3-5 Years 5+ Years
0
50
100
150
200
250
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Jackup Contract Duration by Fixed Year
*< 1 Year* 1-3 Years 3-5 Years 5+ Years
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Drilling Warm/hot stacked Cold stacked Under construction Undergoing
repair/SPS
Floaters By Current Status
Drillship Semisubmersible
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Drilling Warm/hot stacked Cold stacked Under construction Undergoing repair/SPS
Jackups By Current Status
0
750
1,500
2,250
3,000
3,750
4,500
5,250
6,000
6,750
7,500
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Global Subsea Trees Value Awarded Yearly ($M)
0
75
150
225
300
375
450
525
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Number of Global Subsea Trees Awarded Yearly
39603_6d541c56-963c-4583-9a2e-6d5e748b9ed6.pdf
BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com
3
ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORT
Exhibits 11 & 12: Total utilization of the OSV fleet stands at ~71%, rebounding sharply after bottoming
in 2020 at ~58%. Utilization of the active OSV fleet (excludes laid up vessels) is hovering around ~8 6%
with ~1,100 PSVs and ~1,300 AHTS vessels working.
Source: Clarksons, BTIG Research Source: Clarksons, BTIG Research
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E
Utilization
Stacked PSVs
Global PSV Utilization
Stacked PSVs Active Utilization Total Utilization
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E
Utilization
Stacked AHTS
Global AHTS Utilization
Stacked PSVs Active Utilization Total Utilization
39603_6d541c56-963c-4583-9a2e-6d5e748b9ed6.pdf
BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com
4
ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORT
Driller Comp Sheet
Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Company Data, BTIG Research; Note: EV/EBITDA Estimates based on Consensus Forecasts.
Company Ticker Rating
Target
Price
(USD)
Stock Price
(USD)
Market Cap
($USD)
2026
EV/EBITDA
2027
EV/EBITDA
2026 Price Target
EV/ EBITDA
2027 Price Target
EV/ EBITDA
Seadrill Limited SDRL Buy $50 $45.41 $2,832.41 8.4x 5.6x 9.3x 6.4x
Noble Corporation NE Buy $55 $49.81 $7,928.73 9.5x 7.7x 10.3x 8.9x
Transocean Ltd. RIG Buy $10 $6.93 $6,652.80 8.6x 9.4x 10.5x 12.6x
Valaris Ltd. VAL Neutral $102.24 $7,146.58 15.1x 9.6x
Borr Drilling Limited BORR Neutral $6.05 $1,759.95 8.3x 6.0x
Tidewater Inc TDW Neutral $82.40 $4,084.00 7.3x 6.2x
Helix Energy Solutions Group HLX Neutral $10.10 $1,557.88 5.7x 4.6x
Odfjell Drilling Ltd. ODL Not Rated $10.33 $2,478.17 5.8x 6.0x
Average $4,305.06 8.6x 6.9x 10.0x 9.3x
39603_6d541c56-963c-4583-9a2e-6d5e748b9ed6.pdf
BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com
5
ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORT
ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORTBTIG Covered Companies Mentioned in this Report
Borr Drilling Limited (BORR, Neutral, Closing Price: $5.80)
Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX, Neutral, Closing Price: $9.75)
Noble Corporation plc (NE, Buy, $55 PT; Closing Price: $48.89)
Seadrill Limited (SDRL, Buy, $50 PT; Closing Price: $44.95)
TechnipFMC Plc (FTI, Neutral, Closing Price: $67.59)
Tidewater Inc. (TDW, Neutral, Closing Price: $81.89)
Transocean Ltd. (RIG, Buy, $10 PT; Closing Price: $6.65)
Valaris plc (VAL, Neutral, Closing Price: $98.40)
BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com
6
ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORTAppendix: Analyst Certification and Other Important Disclosures
Analyst Certification
I, Gregory Lewis, hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities discussed in this report are accurately
expressed and that I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific
recommendations or views in this report.
I, Ben Sommers, hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities discussed in this report are accurately
expressed and that I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific
recommendations or views in this report.
I, Sherif Elmaghrabi, hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities discussed in this report are accurately
expressed and that I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific
recommendations or views in this report.
Regulatory Disclosures
Ratings Definitions
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recommendation. The BUY rating may be maintained as long as it is deemed appropriate, notwithstanding price fluctuations that
would cause the target to fall outside of the 15% return.
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recommendation. The SELL rating may be maintained as long as it is deemed appropriate, notwithstanding price fluctuations that
would cause the target to fall outside of the 15% return.
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NOT RATED – A security which is not rated or covered by BTIG.
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and estimates for the companies listed below are suspended and should no longer be relied upon.
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Current Rating Distribution (as of March 31, 2026):
Coverage Universe Count Percent Inv. Banking Relationships Count Percent
Buy 351 67.8% Buy 106 30.2%
Neutral 164 31.7% Neutral 41 25.0%
Sell 3 0.6% Sell 0 0.0%
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BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com
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9