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sell-side Good morning
ingested 2026-03-31
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"Weinberg, Andrew" <aweinberg@btig.com>
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2026-03-31
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3604
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Energy_-_Offshore_Services_Monthly_-_BTIG.pdf
ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORT Energy: Offshore Services Monthly Floater Activity Rebounds to Highest Level Since June and Some Thoughts around the Longer-Term Impact on Offshore Barrels from the Ongoing War in Iran. WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: March floater activity averaged ~120 working rigs which was up ~5 rigs M-M and saw floater activity rebound to its highest level since 2Q25 driven by incremental rigs going to work in Brazil, LatAm, US Gulf and AsiaPac. While we note that seasonality plays a role (floater activity peaked in Q2 in 2025 and Q3 in both 2024 and 2023), March activity was up ~3% (~3 rigs) from the trailing 12-month average. Additionally, the contracted floater fleet (includes idle rigs scheduled to go to work) ticked up ~1 rig to ~140 floaters which is its highest level since 4Q24, keeping us bullish on the group despite our expectation of some choppiness in activity over the next few quarters as we expect 4-5 floaters rolling off this quarter to have some downtime between contracts. Bigger picture, we expect floater activity on average to push higher (thinking 4%-5% annually) in both 2026 and 2027 which should push utilization higher near term with pricing picking up in 2027. ■ Risk Adjusting Offshore Oil and Gas. While we expect the ongoing supply issues (both oil and LNG) out of the Arabian Gulf (think some of the cheapest hydrocarbons on earth) to eventually be resolved, on a risk-adjusted basis the rest of the world's oil and gas has become more attractive. Bottom line: energy security and certainty of supply matter, and with ~40 MBD (~40% of global demand) of crude oil transported on the water every day (~17-18 MBD from the Middle East) we have to think that oil and natural gas resources outside of the Middle East have become more valuable or, at a minimum, potential offshore projects in Africa and LatAm on a risk adjusted basis are less risky than they were a month ago. ■ Watching Brazil. Foresea (Private), a local Brazilian company, fixed the ODN I (6G Drillship) for ~4 years at ~$320k/day (incl. mob) with Petrobras (PBR, Not Rated). We note that this rate was below what we believe to be leading edge 7G drillship rates in the $400k+ range. Interestingly, there was nil push back from investors around this contract, with more of the Brazil focus around the expected contract blends and extends of multi-year contracts that were fixed in the $450k+ range (see: February OSM). We note that of the ~36 floaters in Brazil only ~33% are 7G drillships (includes 2 contracted by an IOC) which could see some 7G drillships move out of Brazil. ■ More Jackup Consolidation. Last week, Borr (BORR, Neutral) announced it will acquire five jackups from Paratus (PLSV, Not Rated) in a newly formed JV of which Borr will own ~50%. This is BORR's second multi-rig acquisition in four months (bought 5 jackups from Noble (NE, Buy, $55 PT) with the deal closing in January) which should increase its fleet ~40%. We like the move, despite what we expect to be a soft patch in Middle East activity until the war in Iran is resolved. ■ PSV Rates Showing Signs of Life. PSV activity in March was up ~1% M-M (~4% below its TTM average), with the sequential activity increase driven by North America (+8%) and the Middle East (+4%), partially offset by lower activity in APAC (-2%), LatAm (-1%), and WAFA (-1%). We expect Middle East activity to slow next month. Turning to pricing, we saw PSV rates rise in WAFA and March marked the 5th consecutive month that we saw a large PSV rate increase in WAFA. Despite the recent rally, WAFA large PSV rates are still down ~7% Y-Y , with small PSV rates down ~13%. The North Sea also saw large and small PSV rates rise 6%-7% M-M (think seasonal pickup), marking the region's first sequential rate increase in ~2 years. March 31, 2026 Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 glewis@btig.com Ben Sommers (212) 738-6049 bsommers@btig.com Sherif Elmaghrabi (332) 400-5177 selmaghrabi@btig.com PLEASE READ: IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST’S CERTIFICATION APPEAR IN APPENDIX WWW.BTIG.COM This report is intended for aweinberg@btig.com. Unauthorized distribution prohibited. Focus Charts Exhibits 1 & 2: The working floater count averaged ~120 rigs in March which was up ~5 rigs M-M and down ~2 rigs Y-Y as offshore activity continues to navigate the pause in the cycle . The sequential increase was driven by rigs going to work in the US GoM, Brazil, LATAM, and APAC. Looking at jackups, the working count averaged ~349 rigs which was down ~4 rigs M-M but up ~14 rigs Y-Y. The sequential decline was driven by rigs rolling off in LATAM and APAC, partially offset by a rig going to work in the Middle East. Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Exhibits 3 & 4: Average leading-edge floater dayrates sit in the $400k-430k range, as the continued scarcity of 7G drillships has kept rates relatively elevated despite broader activity weakness . Floater utilization is averaging ~74% this quarter, which is up ~160 bps sequentially. Moving to jackups, premium dayrates sit in the $120-$150k range, with utilization averaging ~83%, which is down ~70bps sequentially. Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Source: Esgian, BTIG Research 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Mar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 Mar-24 Jul-24 Nov-24 Mar-25 Jul-25 Nov-25 Mar-26 Working Floater Count 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 Mar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 Mar-24 Jul-24 Nov-24 Mar-25 Jul-25 Nov-25 Mar-26 Working Jackup Count 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000 750,000 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21 3Q21 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24 3Q24 1Q25 3Q25 1Q26 Marketed Utilization Dayrate ($/day) Floater Average Dayrate and Utilization Avg Floater Rate Floater Utilization 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21 3Q21 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24 3Q24 1Q25 3Q25 1Q26 Marketed Utilization Dayrate ($/day) Jackup Average Dayrate and Utilization Avg JU Rate JU Utilization 39603_6d541c56-963c-4583-9a2e-6d5e748b9ed6.pdf BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com 2 ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORT Exhibits 5 & 6: Floaters added ~91 years and ~64 years of drilling backlog, while jackups booked ~98 years and ~183 years of drilling backlog in 2024 and 2025, respectively. So far in 2026, floaters and jackups have added ~28 and ~9 years of drilling backlog, respectively. Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Exhibits 7 & 8: Drilling activity is currently struggling with Brent having averaged ~$68/bbl in 202 5 and currently averaging ~$78/bbl in 2026. Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Source: Esgian, BTIG Research Exhibits 9 & 10: As the offshore drilling upcycle progresses, we expect strong levels of global subsea trees awarded in 2026 with sustained demand over the next few years. We expect the value of subsea trees globally to increase slightly with the Brent futures curve pointing to ~$73/bbl into 2029. Source: Bloomberg, BTIG Research Source: Bloomberg, BTIG Research 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Floater Contract Duration by Fixed Year *< 1 Year* 1-3 Years 3-5 Years 5+ Years 0 50 100 150 200 250 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Jackup Contract Duration by Fixed Year *< 1 Year* 1-3 Years 3-5 Years 5+ Years 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Drilling Warm/hot stacked Cold stacked Under construction Undergoing repair/SPS Floaters By Current Status Drillship Semisubmersible 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Drilling Warm/hot stacked Cold stacked Under construction Undergoing repair/SPS Jackups By Current Status 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 3,750 4,500 5,250 6,000 6,750 7,500 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Global Subsea Trees Value Awarded Yearly ($M) 0 75 150 225 300 375 450 525 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Number of Global Subsea Trees Awarded Yearly 39603_6d541c56-963c-4583-9a2e-6d5e748b9ed6.pdf BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com 3 ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORT Exhibits 11 & 12: Total utilization of the OSV fleet stands at ~71%, rebounding sharply after bottoming in 2020 at ~58%. Utilization of the active OSV fleet (excludes laid up vessels) is hovering around ~8 6% with ~1,100 PSVs and ~1,300 AHTS vessels working. Source: Clarksons, BTIG Research Source: Clarksons, BTIG Research 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E Utilization Stacked PSVs Global PSV Utilization Stacked PSVs Active Utilization Total Utilization 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E Utilization Stacked AHTS Global AHTS Utilization Stacked PSVs Active Utilization Total Utilization 39603_6d541c56-963c-4583-9a2e-6d5e748b9ed6.pdf BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com 4 ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORT Driller Comp Sheet Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Company Data, BTIG Research; Note: EV/EBITDA Estimates based on Consensus Forecasts. Company Ticker Rating Target Price (USD) Stock Price (USD) Market Cap ($USD) 2026 EV/EBITDA 2027 EV/EBITDA 2026 Price Target EV/ EBITDA 2027 Price Target EV/ EBITDA Seadrill Limited SDRL Buy $50 $45.41 $2,832.41 8.4x 5.6x 9.3x 6.4x Noble Corporation NE Buy $55 $49.81 $7,928.73 9.5x 7.7x 10.3x 8.9x Transocean Ltd. RIG Buy $10 $6.93 $6,652.80 8.6x 9.4x 10.5x 12.6x Valaris Ltd. VAL Neutral $102.24 $7,146.58 15.1x 9.6x Borr Drilling Limited BORR Neutral $6.05 $1,759.95 8.3x 6.0x Tidewater Inc TDW Neutral $82.40 $4,084.00 7.3x 6.2x Helix Energy Solutions Group HLX Neutral $10.10 $1,557.88 5.7x 4.6x Odfjell Drilling Ltd. ODL Not Rated $10.33 $2,478.17 5.8x 6.0x Average $4,305.06 8.6x 6.9x 10.0x 9.3x 39603_6d541c56-963c-4583-9a2e-6d5e748b9ed6.pdf BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com 5 ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORT ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORTBTIG Covered Companies Mentioned in this Report Borr Drilling Limited (BORR, Neutral, Closing Price: $5.80) Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX, Neutral, Closing Price: $9.75) Noble Corporation plc (NE, Buy, $55 PT; Closing Price: $48.89) Seadrill Limited (SDRL, Buy, $50 PT; Closing Price: $44.95) TechnipFMC Plc (FTI, Neutral, Closing Price: $67.59) Tidewater Inc. (TDW, Neutral, Closing Price: $81.89) Transocean Ltd. (RIG, Buy, $10 PT; Closing Price: $6.65) Valaris plc (VAL, Neutral, Closing Price: $98.40) BTIG, LLC Gregory Lewis, CFA (212) 588-6543 www.btig.com 6 ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY REPORTAppendix: Analyst Certification and Other Important Disclosures Analyst Certification I, Gregory Lewis, hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report. I, Ben Sommers, hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report. 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