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Equity Research Price Target Change — March 26, 2026 Clean Energy Ballard Power Systems Inc. Post Q4 Update—Gross Margin & EBITDA Above Estimates — Raising PT, but Stay UW Underweight Price Target: $2.00 Our Call Q4 gross margin/EBITDA above estimates, revenue was in line. BLDP is looking to use PEM fuel cells for backup power for data centers. Strategic cost reduction initiatives mostly complete. BLDP received a large follow-on bus order. We stay UW. Increasing Price Target to $2/Sh. We are raising our price target to $2/share from $1.50/ share mostly to reflect slightly higher margins. Our PT is based on a blend of a discounted cash flow model and target EV/sales multiple. Raising Our 2026/2027 EBITDA Estimates. We are increasing our 2026/2027 EBITDA estimates to ($62)MM/($53)MM from ($69)MM/($54)MM to reflect the impact of improving gross margins and lower operating expenses. BLDP Joins Data Center Power Push, but Traction Seems Challenging. BLDP is positioning PEM fuel cells as a diesel genset replacement for data center backup power. Rather than building a dedicated product, BLDP is repurposing its HD & XD fuel cells from HD trucking to data centers with modular arrays that can reach ~20–50 MWs. However, these units run on hydrogen, which is costly and requires new infrastructure (vs. a more established diesel supply chain). As a result, we expect limited traction. Order Backlog/Book Down. At the end of Q4, Ballard’s order backlog was ~$119.3MM, down ~10% from $132.8MM in the prior quarter. The company’s 12-month order book was $53.9MM, which is a ~25% decrease from $71.6MM in Q3, and also compares to consensus revenue of $114.6MM and our estimate of $109.7MM. To note, the company backlog/order book does not include the New Flyer follow-on order announced on 3/10/26 (see below). Receives Large Bus Order for 50 MW. Ballard received a follow-on order for 500 FCmove HD+ fuel cell engines (totaling 50 MW) from New Flyer. Deliveries for the fuel cell engines will start in 2026 and be used in fuel cell buses in North America. We estimate the value of the order is $30-40MM. The timeframe of deliveries was not provided. Notable Changes $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg Price Target $2.00 $1.50 33.3% EBITDA (MM) 2026 (61.6) (68.9) 10.6% EBITDA (MM) 2027 (53.3) (53.5) 0.5% EPS 2026 (0.23) (0.26) 10.3% EPS 2027 (0.20) (0.21) 1.5% Ticker BLDP Upside/(Downside) to Target (20.9)% Price (03/25/2026) $2.53 52 Week Range $1.01 - 4.10 Market Cap (MM) $761 Enterprise Value (MM) $235 Average Daily Value (MM) $2 Dividend Yield 0.0% $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY EBITDA (MM) 2026E (18.0) E (18.2) E (12.4) E (13.0) E (61.6) E Prior (17.9) E (17.8) E (17.0) E (16.2) E (68.9) E 2027E (15.4) E (14.3) E (12.1) E (11.4) E (53.3) E Prior (14.9) E (13.8) E (13.1) E (11.7) E (53.5) E Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset. NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate Praneeth Satish Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Praneeth.Satish@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8056 Michael Blum Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Michael.J.Blum@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5037 Ned Baramov, CFA Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Ned.Baramov@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8021 Eric Shiu Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Eric.Shiu@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5038 Jack Farrell, CFA Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Jack.L.Farrell@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8012 All estimates/forecasts are as of 3/26/2026 unless otherwise stated. 3/26/2026 9:09:27EDT. Please see page 6 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Clean Energy Equity Research Wells Fargo Express Takeaways Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) | Rating: Underweight | Price Target: $2.00 Analyst: Praneeth Satish Financials FY (Dec) 2025A 2026E 2027E $ ESTIMATES EBITDA (MM) Q1 (27.5) A (18.0) E (15.4) E Q2 (30.6) A (18.2) E (14.3) E Q3 (31.2) A (12.4) E (12.1) E Q4 (11.6) A (13.0) E (11.4) E AN (100.9) A (61.6) E (53.3) E EPS (0.29) A (0.23) E (0.20) E Rev. (MM) 99.4 A 109.7 E 136.2 E FCF/Share (0.22) A (0.16) E (0.13) E FCF (MM) (66.3) A (48.9) E (39.8) E WELLS FARGO vs. CONSENSUS Consensus Estimate (100.93) A (58.46) E (42.90) E Difference from Consensus 5.4% 24.2% VALUATION EV/EBITDA NM NM NM P/E NM NM NM EV/Revenue 2.4x 2.1x 1.7x P/FCF NM NM NM EV/FCF NM NM NM FCF Yield NM NM NM Consensus Estimate: EBITDA; Source: FactSet. Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset. NA = Not Available, NE = No Estimate Investment Thesis We have an Underweight rating on BLDP. The company lacks positive FCF visibility for at least the next 5+ years based on our current estimates. Risk vs. Reward – Upside/Downside Price Target Scenarios $0 $1 $2 $3 $5 Upside Scenario Base Case Downside Scenario * $2.53 $4.00 $2.00 $0.50 *As of 03/25/26 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Factset. Base Case | $2.00 Our price target of $2/share is based on a blend of: • Three-stage discounted cash flow model, which assumes a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.6% and a long-term growth rate of 4.0%, and • Target EV/sales multiple (2027E) of ~2.5x. The multiple utilized in our EV/ sales valuation is based on a regression of other comparable companies using sales growth and gross margin as inputs. Upside Scenario | $4.00 • Revenue growth is 50% higher than our published model • An assumed increase to our target EV/ sales multiple • Entry into data center market for backup power • Falling interest rates support stock performance and reduce the cost of capital Downside Scenario | $0.50 • Revenue growth is 50% lower than our published model • An assumed decrease to our target EV/ sales multiple • Hydrogen fuel cell costs remain much higher than alternatives, limiting adoption Upcoming Catalysts • Increase/decrease in the company's order book and backlog (updates provided with company's earnings release). • Path to positive gross margin potentially in 2026 Company Description Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and services proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell products. The company’s primary focus is on power products for the bus, truck, rail, marine, stationary, and emerging market (material handling, off-road and other) applications. The company also provides engineering services, technology transfer, and the licensing and sale of the company’s intellectual property portfolio for PEM fuel cell applications. 2 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Ballard Power Systems Inc. Equity Research Cost Restructuring Largely Complete. The company has mostly completed its cost reduction initiatives. Incremental savings are expected to come primarily from lowering product costs through manufacturing efficiency, scaling, and additional product innovations. 2026 Opex and Capex Guidance Below Estimates. Ballard’s 2026 operating expense guidance is $65-75MM (midpoint of $70MM). The company also provided capex guidance to $5-10MM (midpoint of $7.5MM). Other. (1) BLDP expects to generate positive cash flow within the next 2-3 years. (2) 2026 revenue is expected to be more weighted to H2 (i.e., 60%). (3) Q4 gross margins performance is not ratable due to seasonality. Equity Research | 3 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Clean Energy Equity Research Financials Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) Summary Year ended December 31 $ in millions, except for per share data 2025A 3/31/26E6/30/26E9/30/26E12/31/26E 2026E 3/31/27E6/30/27E9/30/27E12/31/27E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E Revenue Breakdown Heavy-Duty Mobility $81 $13 $13 $29 $30 $85 $16 $15 $33 $32 $96 $114 $139 $176 $226 Stationary $8 $4 $4 $4 $4 $15 $6 $6 $6 $6 $25 $35 $45 $55 $65 Emerging and Other Markets $10 $3 $3 $3 $3 $10 $4 $4 $4 $4 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 Adjusted revenue $99 $19 $19 $36 $36 $110 $26 $25 $43 $42 $136 $169 $209 $261 $326 Year/year growth (%) 43% 24% 8% 9% 6% 10% 37% 32% 20% 18% 24% 24% 24% 25% 25% Margins (%) Gross margin 5% (15%) (15%) 15% 15% 4% 8% 10% 13% 15% 12% 17% 19% 21% 22% Operating margin (107%) (101%) (101%) (39%) (40%) (61%) (64%) (62%) (32%) (31%) (43%) (29%) (20%) (11%) (5%) EBITDA margin (102%) (94%) (94%) (35%) (36%) (56%) (59%) (56%) (29%) (27%) (39%) (26%) (17%) (9%) (3%) Net profit margin (88%) (106%) (105%) (41%) (42%) (64%) (67%) (65%) (34%) (32%) (45%) (31%) (21%) (12%) (5%) FCF margin (67%) (33%) (106%) (19%) (43%) (45%) (5%) (65%) (21%) (31%) (29%) (18%) (11%) (4%) (2%) Metrics Revenue $99 $19 $19 $36 $36 $110 $26 $25 $43 $42 $136 $169 $209 $261 $326 Net income ($88) ($20) ($20) ($15) ($15) ($70) ($18) ($16) ($14) ($14) ($62) ($53) ($44) ($32) ($18) Adjusted EBITDA ($101) ($18) ($18) ($12) ($13) ($62) ($15) ($14) ($12) ($11) ($53) ($44) ($35) ($23) ($9) Free cash flow (FCF) ($66) ($6) ($21) ($7) ($15) ($49) ($1) ($17) ($9) ($13) ($40) ($30) ($24) ($10) ($8) FCF per share ($0.22) ($0.02) ($0.07) ($0.02) ($0.05) ($0.16) ($0.00) ($0.05) ($0.03) ($0.04) ($0.13) ($0.10) ($0.08) ($0.03) ($0.03) Earnings per share (EPS) ($0.29) ($0.07) ($0.07) ($0.05) ($0.05) ($0.23) ($0.06) ($0.05) ($0.05) ($0.04) ($0.20) ($0.17) ($0.14) ($0.10) ($0.06) Average shares outstanding (in MM) 300 301 301 302 302 302 303 303 303 304 303 305 306 308 310 Financing Capex spending $10 $2 $2 $2 $2 $8 $3 $3 $3 $3 $10 $10 $15 $15 $20 Common equity issuance $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ATM equity issuance $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Credit Metrics Cash and cash equivalents $527 $521 $500 $494 $478 $478 $477 $460 $451 $438 $438 $408 $384 $374 $366 Total debt outstanding (GAAP) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Net debt / EBITDA (rating agencies) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Net debt / EBITDA (covenant) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Source: FactSet, Company data and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates 4 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Ballard Power Systems Inc. Equity Research Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) Investment Thesis We have an Underweight rating on BLDP. The company lacks positive FCF visibility for at least the next 5+ years based on our current estimates. Target Price Valuation for BLDP Our price target of $2/share is based on a blend of: • Three-stage discounted cash flow model, which assumes a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.6% and a long-term growth rate of 4.0%, and • Target EV/sales multiple (2027E) of ~2.5x. The multiple utilized in our EV/sales valuation is based on a regression of other comparable companies using sales growth and gross margin as inputs. Risks to Our Price Target and Rating for BLDP Risks to BLDP trading above our price target include: (1) faster adoption of hydrogen fuel cell technologies and increased commercialization opportunities, (2) an extension of its value chain (leading to gross margin expansion), and (3) entering into new geographical markets by partnering with leading regional companies. Companies Mentioned in Report Company Name Ticker Last Price (03/25/26) Ballard Power Systems Inc. BLDP $2.53 Source: Wells Fargo Securities LLC Estimates, FactSet Equity Research | 5 This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Clean Energy Equity Research Required Disclosures I, Praneeth Satish, certify that: 1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. Additional Information Available Upon Request Ballard Power Systems Inc. Rating History as of 03-25-2026powered by: BlueMatrix 6543210Apr 23Jul 23Oct 23Jan 24Apr 24Jul 24Oct 24Jan 25Apr 25Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26 SELL:$3.5011/13/2023SELL:$4.0001/08/2024SELL:$3.5003/11/2024SELL:$3.0005/08/2024SELL:$2.0008/12/2024SELL:$1.0011/11/2024SELL:$1.5008/12/2025 Closing PricePrice TargetInitiation (I); Drop Coverage (D); Overweight (BUY); Equal Weight (HOLD); Underweight (SELL); Suspended (SR); Not Rated (NR); No Estimate (NE) Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, maintains a market in the common stock of Ballard Power Systems Inc.. STOCK RATING OW=Overweight: Total return on stock expected to be 10%+ over the next 12 months. (BUY) EW=Equal Weight: Total return on stock expected to be -10% to +10% over the next 12 months. (HOLD) UW=Underweight: Total return on stock expected to lag the Overweight- and Equal Weight-rated stocks within the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. (SELL) NR=Not Rated: The rating and price target has been removed due to lack of fundamental basis to support the recommendation or due to legal, regulatory or company policy considerations. FINRA regulation requires member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories: Buy, Hold and Sell. In accordance with FINRA regulation and solely to satisfy those disclosure requirements in the ratings distribution table and ratings history chart contained in these Required Disclosures, our rating of Overweight corresponds to a Buy rating; Equal Weight corresponds to a Hold rating; and Underweight corresponds to a Sell rating. As of March 25, 2026 53.3% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Overweight. (BUY) 39.6% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Equal Weight. (HOLD) 7.1% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Underweight. (SELL) Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 42.8% of its Equity Research Overweight-rated companies. (BUY) Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 39.2% of its Equity Research Equal Weight-rated companies. (HOLD) Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 39.7% of its Equity Research Underweight-rated companies. (SELL) Important Disclosure for U.S. Clients 6 | Equity Research This document is for aweinberg@btig.com and should not be distributed further. Ballard Power Systems Inc. Equity Research This report was prepared by Wells Fargo Securities Global Research Department (“WFS Research”) personnel associated with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC ("Wells Fargo Securities"). WFS Research may, from time to time, provide clients with short-term trading views in its research reports regarding subject companies on which Wells Fargo Securities currently has equity research coverage. 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Short-term trading views may not be suitable for all investors and have not been tailored to individual investor circumstances and objectives, and investors should make their own independent decisions regarding any short-term trading views discussed in WFS Research reports. Important Disclosure for International Clients United Kingdom – The securities and related financial instruments described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. For recipients in the United Kingdom, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a UK incorporated investment firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For the purposes of Section 21 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (the “Act”), the content of this report has been approved by WFSIL, an authorised person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Directive 2014/65/EU (“MiFID2”). 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