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Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies
covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 3.
U.S. Auto Retail
KMX sees increase in searches for
EVs/hybrids amidst rising fuel
prices; CVNA vols tracking +38% in
1Q
KMX internal data shows 13% MoM increase in searches for
EVs & hybrids in March. While significant, industry contacts
aren't seeing this translate into increased purchases of EVs or
hybrids. Tracking data still shows KMX tracking above Street
in F4Q (ended Feb). CVNA vols tracking +38% YoY in 1Q.
KMX sees increased searches for EVs/hybrids, but this isn't impacting vols
yet
On 3/23/26, CarMax (KMX) said that its internal data shows a 12.8% MoM increase in searches for
electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids so far in March. KMX noted that this is a "statistically
significant lift" and may be prompted by consumers seeking out more fuel efficient options
amidst the recent rise in gas prices. The data we track shows a mixed picture of EV volumes,
with KMX's EV volumes flat MoM in March so far (vs. +17.3% for all vehicles) while CVNA's EV
volumes are up +53.1% (vs. +33.1% for all vehicles). Our discussions with industry contacts also
suggest that there aren't any notable shifts in consumer buying patterns in March. That said,
this could change if fuel prices remain elevated for an extended period.
KMX F4Q26 update: Vols and pricing still tracking above Barclays/Street
ests
We continue to monitor tracking data from Barclays Data Science team for Carvana (CVNA) and
KMX on a weekly basis. This data has tended to be a good indicator of results, as we show in
Figure 2 and Figure 3 below. Consistent with the report we published on March 16 (see report
here), the data continues to suggest KMX volumes and pricing in F4Q26 could be a bit better
than Barclays and Street estimates. On volumes, Barclays Data Science estimates show a -2.1%
decline in F4Q26 (ending in February). This compares with Barclays and Street estimates of
roughly -4%. Meanwhile, the average selling price for KMX is tracking down -0.5% in F4Q26, also
a bit better than Barclays at -2% and the Street at -1%. Additional revisions to this data are
possible before KMX reports results on April 14, though this currently indicates somewhat
stronger revenues and potentially higher gross profit per unit (GPU) than current forecasts.
Equity Research
U.S. Auto Retail
26 March 2026
Industry Update
U.S. Auto Retail
NEUTRAL
U.S. Auto Retail
John Babcock
+1 212 526 6811
john.babcock@barclays.com
BCI, US
Aaron Acquah
+1 212 526 1393
aaronj.acquah@barclays.com
BCI, US
Completed: 25-Mar-26, 22:34 GMT Released: 26-Mar-26, 10:00 GMT Restricted - External

FIGURE 2. CVNA Used Retail units have tended to track closely with
Barclays Data Science estimates
FIGURE 3. KMX Used Retail units have tended to track closely with
Barclays Data Science estimates
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
4Q2019
2Q2020
4Q2020
2Q2021
4Q2021
2Q2022
4Q2022
2Q2023
4Q2023
2Q2024
4Q2024
2Q2025
4Q2025
Used Retail Units BarcE Used Retail Units
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
4Q2016
2Q2017
4Q2017
2Q2018
4Q2018
2Q2019
4Q2019
2Q2020
4Q2020
2Q2021
4Q2021
2Q2022
4Q2022
2Q2023
4Q2023
2Q2024
4Q2024
2Q2025
4Q2025
2Q2026
4Q2026
Used Retail Units BarcEstimate
Outliers are due to incomplete monthly data Outliers are due to incomplete monthly data
Source: Outliers are due to incomplete monthly data Source: Barclays Data Science Research
YTD volume growth at +38.4% for CVNA, +0.2% for KMX
Year-to-date tracking data through March 22 shows CVNA volumes are up +38.4% while KMX
volumes are flattish at +0.2%. Interestingly, the data shows some slowing volume growth in the
last couple weeks. We primarily attribute this to somewhat more challenging comps as our
recent trade discussions suggest tensions in the Middle East are having little impact on the used
vehicle market so far. Additionally, there could still be meaningful revisions to the data. Recall,
our model currently assumes retail unit sales for CVNA will be +23.5% YoY in 1Q26 and Barclays
Data Science estimates show volumes above that. However, there is one more week left in the
quarter and comps are particularly challenging following the tariff-related boost in demand in
the last 5-6 days of March 2025.
Supporting charts
FIGURE 1. Barclays Data Science team data suggests YTD unit sales growth of +38.4% for CVNA and
+0.2% for KMX
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Jun-25
Jul-25
Aug-25
Sep-25
Oct-25
Nov-25
Dec-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
CVNA KMX
Outliers are due to incomplete monthly data; Data for KMX in the latest week is adjusted in consideration of past weekly
revisions.
Source: Barclays Data Science Research
 
26 March 2026 2
Barclays | U.S. Auto Retail

Analyst(s) Certification(s):
I, John Babcock, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject
securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
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Materially Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)
CarMax Inc. (KMX, 25-Mar-2026, USD 41.88), Underweight/Neutral, A/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M
Carvana Co. (CVNA, 25-Mar-2026, USD 308.56), Overweight/Neutral, A/CD/CE/D/FB/J/L
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26 March 2026 3
Barclays | U.S. Auto Retail

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Below is the list of companies that constitute the "industry coverage universe":
U.S. Auto Retail
ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA) Asbury Automotive Group Inc. (ABG) AutoNation, Inc. (AN)
CarMax Inc. (KMX) Carvana Co. (CVNA) Copart Inc. (CPRT)
Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI) Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) LKQ Corp. (LKQ)
Openlane Inc. (OPLN) Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) Sonic Automotive Inc. (SAH)
26 March 2026 4
Barclays | U.S. Auto Retail

Distribution of Ratings:
Barclays Equity Research has 1865 companies under coverage.
50% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 47% of companies
with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm; 65% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.
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26 March 2026 5
Barclays | U.S. Auto Retail

CarMax Inc. (KMX / KMX)
Stock Rating: UNDERWEIGHT
Industry View: NEUTRAL
Closing Price: USD 41.88 (25-Mar-2026)
Rating and Price Target Chart - USD (as of 25-Mar-2026)
Currency=USD
Closing PriceTarget PriceRating ChangeJul-2023Jan-2024Jul-2024Jan-2025Jul-2025Jan-20262030405060708090
Source: IDC, Barclays Research  
Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting
Publication
Date
Closing Price* Rating Adjusted Price
Target
20-Jan-2026 48.83   28.00
19-Dec-2025 39.34   24.00
11-Nov-2025 30.88 Underweight 28.00
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
*This is the closing price referenced in the publication, which may not be
the last available closing price at the time of publication.
Historical stock prices and price targets may have been adjusted for stock
splits and dividends.
A: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of CarMax Inc. in the
previous 12 months.
CE: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in equity securities issued by CarMax Inc..
D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from CarMax Inc. in the past 12 months.
E: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from CarMax Inc. within
the next 3 months.
J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a liquidity provider and/or trades regularly in the securities by CarMax Inc. and/or in any related derivatives.
K: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation (including compensation for brokerage services,
if applicable) from CarMax Inc. within the past 12 months.
L: CarMax Inc. is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
M: CarMax Inc. is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an
affiliate.
Valuation Methodology: Our $28 PT is based on a 18.5x P/E multiple applied to our fiscal year 2027 EPS forecast. This is towards the lower end of the
range in which the stock has traded since 2000 (between 12x and 25x) and below the average of around 20x. We think the lower multiple is warranted
given recent operational performance and growth trends.
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: Risks to our thesis include increased market
share and elevated used retail demand, which could be driven by better-than-expected macro conditions. CarMax could also see meaningful
improvement in credit performance as it has already significantly increased loan loss provisions in recent quarters.
26 March 2026 6
Barclays | U.S. Auto Retail

Carvana Co. (CVNA / CVNA)
Stock Rating: OVERWEIGHT
Industry View: NEUTRAL
Closing Price: USD 308.56 (25-Mar-2026)
Rating and Price Target Chart - USD (as of 25-Mar-2026)
Currency=USD
Closing PriceTarget PriceRating ChangeJul-2023Jan-2024Jul-2024Jan-2025Jul-2025Jan-20260100200300400500600
Source: IDC, Barclays Research  
Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting
Publication
Date
Closing Price* Rating Adjusted Price
Target
19-Feb-2026 361.53   450.00
20-Jan-2026 443.12   530.00
10-Dec-2025 456.33   465.00
11-Nov-2025 290.14 Overweight 390.00
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
*This is the closing price referenced in the publication, which may not be
the last available closing price at the time of publication.
Historical stock prices and price targets may have been adjusted for stock
splits and dividends.
A: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of Carvana Co. in the
previous 12 months.
CD: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in debt securities issued by Carvana Co..
CE: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in equity securities issued by Carvana Co..
D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Carvana Co. in the past 12 months.
FB: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owns a long position of more than 0.5% of a class of equity securities of Carvana Co., as
calculated in accordance with EU regulations.
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L: Carvana Co. is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
Valuation Methodology: Our $450 PT is based on our discounted cash flow valuation, with a 11% weighted average cost of capital (per Bloomberg
inputs) and 12x terminal multiple after 2040.
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: Carvana has a volatile share price that is
sensitive to the company's ability to meet expectations. Its performance is also subject to fluctuations in the used vehicle market and Carvana would
be more exposed to weaker macro conditions given its greater mix of subprime/nonprime borrowers.
26 March 2026 7
Barclays | U.S. Auto Retail

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