See page 4 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures, Non-US Research Analyst disclosures and BNP Paribas Group Corporate Social Responsibility ("CSR") policies. BNP Paribas has adopted strict CSR policies that govern financing and investment in certain sectors. For time of dissemination, please refer to the Cube. STRATEGY STRATEGY FLASH NOTE Into demand destruction? 31 MARCH 2026 Macro Research Report Production time: 05:42* (London time) Research Analyst & Publishing Entities Dennis Jose BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8479 dennis.jose@uk.bnpparibas.com Day 31 since the conflict started, and with each passing day, the risk of a more nefarious outcome for oil prices and global growth continue to rise. The odds of more severe Oil crisis outcomes in rising, as we highlighted in our deep dive last week, Strategy: The oil crisis playbook. Yet markets, all things considered, while selling off have mostly been orderly. We review what is underpinning for this reaction so far, and what the high frequency data is telling us so far on demand destruction. For now, we find little evidence of behavioural change in European and US consumers in response to rising energy prices. In the Alert, we collate and curate activity data from over 30 datasources on t he US, Europe and China, including key performance, flows, with earnings momentum screens. BNPP STRATEGY ALERT: Into demand destruction? Supply side shock absorbers might be eroding Odds of US boots on the ground in Iran shot up over the weekend, now at 70%, while odds of a ceasefire by the end of April have fallen to 31%. Yet, all things considered, the oil market has remained relatively well behaved. That reflects a set of buffers (Figure 1 from Rystad, energy experts), which have so far mitigated the near term supply shock. Some of these buffers such as floating storage are notably starting to erode ( Figure 2). And if military escalation happens, without further control of the strait or normalisation in flows, the risk of larger Oil price moves rises. Checking for demand destruction On the demand side, we are already seeing some policies that are likely to lead to destruction within Emerging Markets, with 8 countries having announced work from home measures and 12 some price control mechanism. If disruption persists, are more Covid-like mandates next? In the US and Europe, the threshold for dramatic intervention is probably high, and measures so far have been limited (Figure 4). The oil crisis playbook risk is increasing That said, without an improvement in flows, we are progressively moving towards more concerning scenarios. Oil experts suggest we probably have another couple of weeks before the disruption starts to shift from a near -term shock to a more medium one, at which point oil prices could move more dramatically, even if Hormuz flows fully return. In that sense, we are slowly moving toward either the 1970s playbook or the 2022 playbook. Please refer to our in- depth work on Oil crisis in in Strategy: The oil crisis playbook. Meanwhile de-escalation with flows resuming, should keep the c urrent “Gulf War” playbook intact, with a quick recovery in markets. When will it bite? The economy was improving into the shock Turning to the high frequency data, we look for evidence of any hit to growth and consumption. For now, US consumers remain largely unaffected. Real wage growth is still supportive, even at these elevated level gasoline prices at the pump. For the broader economy, and even the labour market, if anything, is so far showing signs of reaccelerating, with job postings rising. No signs of demand destruction, yet. In Europe, we zoom in on UK petrol station data and see no sustained panic -buying sequence or tailoff thereafter, something we saw during the Russian invasion. Meanwhile, in Germany, the weekly economic indicator has reached its fastest pace in almost a year. No signs also of demand destruction in Europe, yet. For the exclusive use of Andrew WEINBERG at BTIG LLC (31-Mar-2026) BNP Paribas Research STRATEGY 31 MARCH 2026 page 2 Focus of the Week: Into demand destruction? Crude Reality: US Retail Gasoline flirting with $4 Will it get closer to $5 per gallon? Buffers might be eroding More supply cuts would follow Most of global crude oil demand is for transportation 27% of crude oil for Motor gasoline Some signs of demand destruction… Already happening, mostly in EM Less international flight despite seasonality How much of a rebound can be expected in April? Higher odds of escalation than de-escalation Odds of a ceasefire in April fell to 31% Source: Datastream, Rystad energy, Bloomberg, IEA, Polymarket, BNP Paribas Exane estimates For the exclusive use of Andrew WEINBERG at BTIG LLC (31-Mar-2026) BNP Paribas Research STRATEGY 31 MARCH 2026 page 3 However consumers remain resilient in the US Retail sales are growing robustly US Job postings improved through March Particularly for consumer exposed sectors UK drivers are not rushing to the petrol station A quick normalisation post news shock In Germany, eco activity continues to improve The recovery playbook was underway Current levels are likely to bring a slowdown in growth $150 per barrel would bring recession risk pricing For now, markets remain driven by one thing Crude oil and S&P 500 correlation at extreme levels Source: Datastream, ONS, Lightcast, Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Exane estimates For the exclusive use of Andrew WEINBERG at BTIG LLC (31-Mar-2026) 189421 BNP Paribas Research STRATEGY 31 MARCH 2026 page 4 ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analyst Certification I, Dennis Jose, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal view(s) about the company or companies and securities discussed in this report. No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly , related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Non-US Research Analyst Disclosure The research analysts named below were involved in preparing this research report. They are not associated persons of BNP Paribas Securities Corp. and thus they are not registered or qualified in the U.S. as research analysts with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) or the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). These non-U.S. analysts are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 concerning communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Dennis Jose BNP Paribas London Branch Research Analyst Compensation The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report receive(s) compensation based upon various factors including overall firm revenues, which include revenues from investment banking activities and/or sales and trading activities. Research Analyst-Specific Disclosures The table immediately below indicates if the research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report (or members of their household) has/have certain conflicts of interest relating to the subject company/ies. Company/ies Relevant Disclosures NONE 1 – The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report, a member of his/her household or an associate of the research analyst has/have a financial interest in the securities of the subject company/ies indicated in the above table. 2 – The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report, a member of his/her household or an associate of the research analyst serve(s) as an employee, officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject company/ies indicated in the above table. 3 – The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report received compensation from the subject company/ies in the past twelve months. 4 – The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report has a material conflict of interest with respect to the subject company/ies, which has not already been identified under 1, 2 or 3 above. 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For the exclusive use of Andrew WEINBERG at BTIG LLC (31-Mar-2026) BNP Paribas Research STRATEGY 31 MARCH 2026 page 5 Explanation of Research Ratings Rating System Our coverage analysts use a rating system in which they rate stocks as Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform (as defined below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or the analyst’s team, over a 12-month investment horizon. Outperform (O/P): The stock is expected to outperform the average total return of all companies covered by the analyst or the analyst’s team, over a 12- month investment horizon. Neutral: The stock is expected to perform in line with the average total return of all companies covered by the analyst or the analyst’s team, over a 12-month investment horizon. Underperform (U/P): The stock is expected to underperform the average total return of all companies covered by the analyst or the analyst’s team, over a 12-month investment horizon. Under review: The rating of the stock has been placed under review after significant news. Any possible change will be confirmed as soon as possible in the form of a new broadly disseminated report. Restricted (RS): The stock is covered by BNPP but there is no Rating and no Target Price because BNPP is involved in an equity capital market/ merger and acquisition transaction relating to the subject company. Not Rated (NR): The stock is covered by BNPP but there is no Rating and no Target Price at this time. Not Covered (NC): BNPP does not cover this company. As of 23 September 2024, TEB Investment has changed the recommendation rating structure for Turkish stock coverage from Buy, Hold and Reduce to Outperform, Neutral and Underperform. Ratings and target prices for dates prior to 23 September 2024 used an absolute rating structure whereby the upside or downside to target price relative to the current share price determined the recommendation. TEB Investment now uses a relative recommendation structure whereby the applied rating is based on the stock’s expected performance as compared to the average total return of all companies covered by the analyst or the analyst’s team in Turkish stock coverage over a 12-month investment horizon. TEB Investment research reports with ratings and target prices for dates prior to 11 August 2025 were prepared and distributed without involvement of a FINRA member firm . ESG Rating Explanation and Methodology ESG integration methodology: The BNP Paribas approach offers an alternative to mechanistic ESG scores and leverages the in-depth knowledge of our industry equity research teams by combining quantitative and qualitative factors. There are three steps to our framework; firstly, our teams build a materiality map to assess which ESG topics are most relevant to their respective industries. Secondly, for the chosen topics, companies are assessed relative to sector peers. 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