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Equity Research
Company Update — March 31, 2026
Clean Energy
GE V ernova Inc.
Q1'26 Preview: All Segments Tracking Overweight
Price Target: $896.00
Our Call
We expect a solid Q1 print with strong gas turbine bookings and positive commentary
on pricing. We update our GEV gas turbine backlog model. We're raising our PT to reflect
higher LT revenue & margins in electrification and stay Overweight rated.
Tracking For Positive Q1. For Power, GEV expects to ship 3-4 GW of turbines in Q1'26
and is on track to deliver 17.5 GW in 2026. The company still expects to reach 100
GW of backlog by YE'26. Given an 83 GW backlog to start the year, this implies 35 GW
of incremental orders in 2026 (83 GW starting backlog - 18 GW shipped + 35 GW of
bookings = 100 GW ending backlog). GEV expects to book 12-24 GW in Q1.
Gas Turbine Demand Remains Strong – Pricing Trending Higher. GEV is sold out through
2028 and expects to sell out backlog through 2030 by year-end. The company is already
in discussions with some customers for potential 2031-2035 orders. Pricing remains
around $2,500/kW, but management noted it could reach $3,000/kW in the near-term
(for plants completed in 2030+).
Middle East Impact Is Modest. GEV derives only 14% of revenue from the Middle East
and Africa. Assuming a 50% split, this implies only 7% exposure to ME (mostly Saudi
Arabia). GEV could see $75-100MM of revenue shift to later this year as the planned
outages (service revenue) are moved to avoid the conflict.
Electrification Segment Upside Remains. GEV views Electrification as the least
appreciated business within its portfolio. The segment is growing 20%/year (revenue)
with 2-3%/year of margin expansion. Prolec acquisition will be additive to revenue growth
in future years (not 2026). Electrification has margin expansion potential due to cost-
cutting and efficiency initiatives still in progress. GEV has been gaining share in the US and
expects this to continue.
Raising Price Target. We're raising our PT to $896/share from $831/share to reflect
higher revenue and margins in electrification in 2028-2031. GEV continues to see strong
demand and pricing for gas turbines; our recent US Gas Turbine S/D Analysis suggests
strong demand for GEV HDGTs should persist to 2032+. Our price target is based on a
50/50 blend of a 3-stage discounted cash flow model and a P/E multiple (FY2030E) of
24x discounted back to FY2027.
Notable Changes
$ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg
Price Target $896.00 $831.00 7.8%
EPS 2027 22.00 21.84 0.7%
Rev. (MM) 2026 44.25B 44.25B -0.0%
Rev. (MM) 2027 49.24B 49.24B 0.0%
Ticker GEV
Upside/(Downside) to Target 9.6%
Price (03/30/2026) $817.35
52 Week Range $252.25 - 948.38
Market Cap (MM) $223,954
Enterprise Value (MM) $215,107
Average Daily Value (MM) $2,290
Dividend Yield 0.1%
$ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
EPS
2026E 1.55 E 3.04 E 3.58 E 5.69 E 13.87 E
Prior 1.61 E 3.00 E 3.59 E 5.66 E NC
2027E 4.06 E 4.94 E 5.38 E 7.62 E 22.00 E
Prior 4.01 E 4.91 E 5.36 E 7.57 E 21.84 E
3 Yr EPS CAGR from current year (unless otherwise noted): Reflects
3 Yr EBITDA CAGR Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities
estimates, and Factset.
NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate
Michael Blum
Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Michael.J.Blum@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5037
Praneeth Satish
Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Praneeth.Satish@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8056
Ned Baramov, CFA
Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Ned.Baramov@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8021
Eric Shiu
Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Eric.Shiu@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5038
Jack Farrell, CFA
Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Jack.L.Farrell@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8012
All estimates/forecasts are as of 3/30/2026 unless otherwise stated. 3/31/2026 5:00:37EDT. Please see page 14 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could
affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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Wells Fargo Express Takeaways
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) | Rating: Overweight | Price Target: $896.00
Analyst: Michael Blum
Financials
FY (Dec) 2025A 2026E 2027E
$
ESTIMATES
EPS
Q1 0.91 A 1.55 E 4.06 E
Q2 1.87 A 3.04 E 4.94 E
Q3 1.64 A 3.58 E 5.38 E
Q4 2.81 A 5.69 E 7.62 E
AN 7.23 A 13.87 E 22.00 E
Rev. (MM) 37.82B A 44.25B E 49.24B E
EBITDA (MM) 3.17B A 5.67B E 8.41B E
FCF (MM) 4,039.0 A 4,941.0 E 6,073.0 E
WELLS FARGO vs. CONSENSUS
Consensus Estimate 7.23 A 14.24 E 22.30 E
Difference from Consensus (3.0)% (1.0)%
VALUATION
P/E NM 58.9x 37.2x
EV/Revenue 5.7x 4.9x 4.4x
EV/EBITDA 67.9x 37.9x 25.6x
EV/FCF 53.3x 43.5x 35.4x
FCF Yield 1.8% 2.2% 2.7%
Consensus Estimate: Consensus EBITDA Estimate; Source: FactSet.
Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.
NA = Not Available, NE = No Estimate
Investment Thesis
We rate GEV Overweight. We project high levels of demand for its
suite of generation and grid products, and believe the company has
strong potential to accrete margin through price raises and lean
manufacturing.
Risk vs. Reward – Upside/Downside Price Target Scenarios
$527$708$889$1070$1253
Upside Scenario
Base Case
Downside Scenario
* $817.35
$1044.00
$896.00
$659.00
*As of 03/30/26
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Factset.
Base Case | $896.00
Our price target of $896/share is based on a
50/50 blend of:
• A three-stage discounted cash flow
model (6.9% WACC, based on 9.5% cost
of equity and 5.5% cost of debt), and
• Target P/E multiple (FY2031E) of 24x
discounted back to FY2027 at 9.5%
cost of equity. We derived our P/E
multiple from a regression of S&P 500
companies using EPS growth and gross
margin as inputs.
Upside Scenario | $1,044.00
• Our upside case scenario assumes
+10% higher HDGT order prices (per
MW) & 25% higher orders per year for
Electrification equipment. Also, Gas
Services & Electrification equipment
EBITDA margins +200 bps in 2028
onward, and Wind EBITDA margins
+400 bps in 2028 onward due to
continued operational improvements.
• This upside results in a 16.0% revenue
CAGR (2025E-2030E) and 2031E
EBITDA margins of 26.2%, resulting in a
PT of $1,044/sh.
Downside Scenario | $659.00
• Our downside case scenario assumes
-30% lower HDGT order prices (per
MW), Electrification equipment orders
-30% lower, and EBITDA margins -300
bps below our base-case estimates in
2026 onward due to lower volumes &
cost overruns.
• We assume 2026-2031 revenue would
increase at a CAGR of 10.5% (versus
12% in our published model) and 2031
EBITDA margins of 19.6% (versus 23.2%
in our model), resulting in a PT of $659/
share.
Upcoming Catalysts
• Expansion into new Electrification verticals, including through
M&A
• Wind business rebound in US or international markets
• More nuclear uprates, expansions, or new SMR deals
• Additional policy supporting transmission and distribution
• Progress on fuel cell commercialization
Company Description
GEV is a global equipment supplier to the natural gas, wind, and
power generation markets. GEV equipment generates ~25% of
global electricity. The company also produces grid transmission
and distribution equipment and software. GEV sells to a global
customer base including utilities and independent power producers
(IPPs). GEV also provides services, including maintenance and
upgrades, to a portion of its installed base of gas, nuclear, wind,
hydroelectric, and coal generation.
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Raising Estimates And Price Target
Raising Estimates
We're raising our Electrification revenue and margin estimates to reflect continued progress for the
Grid Systems business on orders, productivity, and margins. We're raising 2026-2027 Electrification
orders by 4% on average, which in turn raises our 2028-2031E Electrification revenue estimates by
an average of 3.9% per year. The higher revenue estimates also slightly raise EBITDA margins for the
segment, given Grid Equipment contributions carry a higher margin. In 2031E, we project segment
margins to be ~30 basis points higher than our previous estimate (25.1% vs 24.8% prior).
Valuation Is The Primary Pushback From Investors.
Given strong YTD performance (GEV is up +20% YTD vs -8% for the SPX), some investors have
become more cautious on the stock. GEV trades at a 2027 P/E multiple of 37x but has a 4-year
forward EPS CAGR (in earnings) of 25%. This is significantly higher than the 15-year historical average
EPS growth of the S&P 500 of +10%.
Given the long runway for future growth, we look to outer year multiples as a better marker for value.
We estimate GEV trades at a 2030E P/E multiple of 17.5x, in line with the 15-year average forward
P/E multiple for the SPX of 17x (2010-2024). However, in 2030, we project EPS growth of +15% (y/
y in 2031), significantly higher than the 15-year historical S&P 500 average of 10%. We expect GEV's
elevated growth rate (vs. SPX on a prospective basis) can persist into the 2030's given (1) our view of
continued strong demand for HDGT turbines in 2030+, and (2) high margin service revenues tied to
turbine orders delivered in 2028+ will begin to impact revenue 5 years later (in 2033+), providing a
sustainable tailwind of growth.
Exhibit 1 - GEV Forward P/E Multiple Vs Historical S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple
58.9x
37.1x
26.5x
20.3x 17.5x 15.2x
0x
10x
20x
30x
40x
50x
60x
70x
2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
P/E Multiple
GEV P/E Multiple S&P 500 Historical Average Forward P/E (2010-2024)
Source: Company reports, FactSet, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates
FactSet historical forward 12-month P/E ratio is based on 15 years of historical data (2010-2024).
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Exhibit 2 - GEV Estimates Versus Consensus and Guidance
($B, except per share & margins) 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
GEV Total
Revenue - Wells Fargo $44 $49 $57 $65 $72 $78
Revenue - Consensus $45 $51 $58 $66 $72 $84
Revenue - Guidance (midpt) $45 $56
EBITDA Margin - Wells Fargo 13% 17% 20% 22% 23% 23%
EBITDA Margin - Consensus 13% 17% 20% 22% 24% 26%
EBITDA Margin Guidance (midpt) 12% 20%
EPS - Wells Fargo $13.87 $22.00 $30.89 $40.33 $46.65 $53.71
EPS - Consensus $14.24 $22.30 $32.33 $40.38 $46.55 $52.35
Power
Power Revenue - Wells Fargo $23 $26 $31 $37 $40 $42
Power Revenue - Consensus $23 $27 $32 $37 $41 $52
Power Revenue - Guidance (midpt) $23 $32
Power EBITDA Margin - Wells Fargo 17% 20% 22% 24% 25% 25%
Power EBITDA Margin - Consensus 17% 20% 23% 25% 27% 28%
Power EBITDA Margin - Guidance (midpt)17% 22%
Wind
Wind Revenue - Wells Fargo $8 $7 $6 $6 $6 $6
Wind Revenue - Consensus $8 $8 $7 $6 $6 $6
Wind Revenue - Guidance (midpt) $8 $6
Wind EBITDA Margin - Wells Fargo (6%) (0%) 6% 6% 6% 6%
Wind EBITDA Margin - Consensus (5%) 0% 5% 5% 5% 3%
Wind EBITDA Margin - Guidance (midpt)(5%) 6%
Electrification
Electrification Revenue - Wells Fargo $14 $16 $20 $23 $27 $32
Electrification Revenue - Consensus $14 $17 $20 $23 $27 $33
Electrification Revenue - Guidance (midpt)$14 $20
Electrification EBITDA Margin - Wells Fargo18% 22% 23% 25% 25% 25%
Electrification EBITDA Margin - Consensus18% 21% 23% 24% 24% 24%
Electrification EBITDA Margin - Guidance (midpt)18% 22%
Source: Company reports, FactSet, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates
See below for additional takeaways from our pre-quarter call.
Heavy Duty Gas Turbine Pricing Remains Strong & Trending Higher
The cost to build a combined cycle gas power plant continues to rise: in the US and other developed
markets, costs are $2,500+/kW and trending toward $3,000/kW. In the US market, GEV earns roughly
~1/3 of that spend from sales of turbines, generators, controls, and other equipment (~$750-1,000 of
revenue per kW). Further upside on pricing is possible if demand for power, particularly AI, continues to
be robust. Data center costs are trending toward $30B/GW, of which less than 10% is for power.
Per McCoy data, 38% of GEV orders received in 2025 were from international customers, including
from emerging markets like Vietnam. In these markets, GEV sells equipment for the same prices as in
the US. However, other costs such as EPC work and land are lower, so GEV equipment accounts for a
larger percentage of a smaller total cost per kW.
Hyperscalers were paying a premium for HDGT slots last year, but their demand has now "moved the
market upward," so IPPs and utilities are paying the same price to secure slots. To note, hyperscalers
(to our knowledge) do not plan to develop their own power plants. Instead, they are securing slots with
up-front cash and bringing in IPP, utility or BTM partners to handle the construction and operations.
GEV is expanding output of B & E class turbines (~60-100 MW each) by 2 GW per year (included in
the rise from 20 GW/yr to 24 GW/yr by 2028). These turbines earn GEV the same revenue per kW as
the HA turbines, but there is less opportunity to install combined cycle equipment (because they are
usually used in simple cycle configurations) so total order dollars (per kW of turbines sold in simple
cycle terms) will be lower on a per-kW basis than state-of-the-art HA turbines.
HDGT Backlog Outlook Remains Strong
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GEV continues to expect ~34 GW of HDGT bookings in 2026 (including orders and SRA). After ending
2025 with 40 GW of orders and 43 GW of SRA, GEV expects to (1) sell ~17 GW of turbines, (2)
convert 24 GW of SRA to orders for 2029 delivery, (3) sign 13 GW of new orders for 2030+, and (4)
sign 21 GW of new SRA to end 2026 with 100 GW total backlog.
Including orders and SRA, GEV expects to be sold out through 2030 by YE26 (plus 8 GW booked for
2031+).
Based on management comments we expect 12-24 GW booked in Q1'26, likely toward the lower
end of this range as GEV continues to push pricing, which would set the table for a large surge in
bookings during H2'26 (like in H2'25). GEV is also talking to several hyperscalers who are interested in
"programmatic" deals to deliver multiple turbines per year over a 5+ year period.
Limited Impact From War In Iran (For Now)
GEV conducts essentially no business in Iran, but generates ~7% of revenues from the Middle East
region. The majority is earned in Saudi Arabia, which has GEV's largest installed base in this region and
has placed large orders for new power generation and grid equipment.
Due to conditions in the region, GEV is shifting some planned power plant outage work to later in
2026. This could result in $75-100MM of top line revenue deferred to future quarters at most, which
is not material to Q1'26 earnings (we project $9.4B revenue).
There are no impacts to GEV orders from the Middle East scheduled to arrive in future quarters.
However, if the war persists, more business may be disrupted.
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Keep An Eye Out For Prolec Upside
The acquisition of Prolec JV (completed in February 2026) unlocks increased flexibility for GEV to
(1) expand capacity in North America, and (2) sell transformers made internationally into US market
because Prolec no longer holds exclusive rights to US market. Additional upside could be found by
selling low-voltage distribution transformers, which Prolec manufactures but GEV did not sell prior.
Orders are already being booked for expanded business lines which should begin to generate revenue
in 2027+.
Prolec will not be broken out on financials but can be backed out from earnings releases and 10-Qs
using the bridge from organic to reported financials. The impact will be visible in Q2'26 earnings
onward.
Electrification Business Riding Strong Tailwinds
GEV's Electrification continues to have the most upside potential, in our view. GEV currently earns
$200-300MM per GW of data center from its Electrification equipment and expects that metric to
grow significantly due to new products under development including (1) solid state transformers, (2)
power "stability blocks" with medium voltage transformers and battery storage, and (3) low voltage
transformers (acquired in Prolec deal). Pricing remains strong due to underlying demand and long lead
times. Also, significant opportunities for cost savings and efficiencies remain.
During 2025, GEV raised 2028 guidance twice for the Electrification segment, and 2028 guidance
could be raised again this year.
Offshore Wind Remains On Track
GEV has fully installed all turbines at Vineyard Wind (MA) but some work remains on commissioning
this year. The Dogger Bank project (United Kingdom) remains on track to be completed by the end of
2027. The Vineyard Wind install should drive higher margins because vessels and construction crews
are no longer needed. We continue to project EBITDA losses for Offshore business line until end of
2027, in line with our prior estimates.
US - Japan Trade Deal Positive For GEV But Light On Details
In February 2026, US President Trump and Japan Prime Minister Takaichi announced the first tranche
of the US - Japan Strategic Trade and Investment Agreement which included a 9.2 GW gas power
plant near Portsmouth, Ohio. Key details about the plant, including turbine OEM, are not available.
Last week, Trump and Takaichi announced a second tranche including (1) up to $40B in spending on
GE Vernova Hitachi (GEH) SMR in AL & TN and (2) $33B of spending on new gas power plants in PA
(South Mon) and TX (Anderson County) which will be operated by NextEra Energy (NEE, covered by
Pourreza). NEE and GEV signed a strategic agreement last year to develop gas power plants, but the
use of GEV equipment has not been confirmed.
Given the lack of details on the gas power plant and the extended timeline to deploy SMR, we do not
incorporate these announcements into our estimates.
Separately, GEH is involved in restarting part of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant in Japan
and is exploring SMR deployment in SE Asia. We do not expect material contributions this quarter
(or subsequent quarters) from the plant restart above our current Nuclear business line estimates
($1.0B in 2026). Also, just as for the US SMR deal above, it is too early (and details are too limited) to
incorporate SMR deals in our estimates.
GEV Backlog Analysis - 2030 Could Be >40% Sold Out
We refreshed our prior gas turbine backlog analysis from January 2026 to incorporate new project
announcements and industry data. Notably, we now project GEV will end Q1'26 more than 40%
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sold out of available slots in 2030, up from ~5% at end of Q4'25. We assume 2029 is 90% sold out,
2026-2028 is now fully sold out.
Management expects 12-24 GW to be booked during Q1'26, which implies GEV will end Q1'26 with
at least 91 GW of orders and slot reservation agreements (SRA), up from 83 GW at end of Q4'25. We
expect ~6 GW of orders (based on projected ~6 GW per quarter delivery rate in 2028 onward) and 6+
GW of slot reservations.
As a reminder, GEV expects to reach ~60 GW orders and ~40 GW SRA (vs. 40 GW orders & 43 GW
SRA at end of 2025) for total of 100 GW booked at end of 2026.
For more details on our analysis, see our note AI Power Surge: US Gas Turbine S/D Analysis.
Exhibit 3 - GEV Projected HDGT Deliveries By Year
Year Named Backlog Unnamed Backlog Available Projected Capacity
2026 17.2 0.3 0.0 17.5
2027 17.1 2.9 0.0 20.0
2028 10.0 14.0 0.0 24.0
2029 5.8 15.8 2.4 24.0
2030 1.7 8.0 14.3 24.0
2031 0.0 1.2 22.8 24.0
17.2 17.1
10.0
5.8
1.7
0.3
2.9
14.0
15.8
2.4
14.3
22.8
17.5
20.0
24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
HDGT Delivery Slots (GW - Simple Cycle)
Named Backlog Unnamed Backlog Available
Source: Company reports, McCoy, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates.
(1) Projected backlog as of 3/31/26. (2) "Backlog" includes both orders and slot reservation agreements. (3)
Delivery timing is based on McCoy estimates or our own estimates. (4) All orders are shown as simple cycle. (5)
"Named" bookings indicate the customer's identity has been disclosed. "Unnamed" bookings are not disclosed.
Who Are the Customers? Using a combo of McCoy data and public announcements, we can identify
customers for ~52 GW of the 91 GW (55%) projected to be booked as of 3/31/26 (including orders &
slot reservations).
McCoy's YE2025 report identifies ~27 GW of GEV orders received during the year, up from 18 GW
in their 9M'25 report. We also identified ~27 GW of projects outside of McCoy. The 3 new projects
identified since our last backlog tracker was published in January 2026 and not included in McCoy data
are: Maxim Power Corp (Canada), AEP - Pirkey (TX), and OG&E - Horseshoe Lake (OK). One project
(Kozienice in Poland) has been removed since our January 2026 analysis because McCoy updated their
dataset (to avoid double counting, we do not track projects in the McCoy data set).
See the "Notes On Our Analysis" section at the end of the report for details on each project.
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Exhibit 4 - GEV Identified Bookings By Type
Delivery Year 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Utility 5.4 10.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
IPP 2.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Industrial & Other 3.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Named Backlog - McCoy1 11.8 11.9 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
Kilby - Chevron, Engine No. 1 & Crusoe (TX)2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ACWA Power - Qassim-1 (Saudi Arabia) 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ACWA Power - Taiba-1 (Saudi Arabia) 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
AEP - Pirkey Power Plant (TX) 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CPV - Shay Energy Center (WV) 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Delta Offshore Energy - Bac Lieu (Vietnam) 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Invenergy - Sycamore Riverside (IN)2 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CFE - Mazatlan (Mexico) 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CFE - Salamanca II (Mexico) 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Invenergy - Foundry Ridge (WI) 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Qurayyah Expansion (Saudi Arabia)2 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Invenergy - Red Oak Ridge (WI) 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dominion - Chesterfield (VA) 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NRG - Project I2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
NRG - Project II2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
CFE - Francisco Perez Rios (Mexico) 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
OG&E - Horseshoe Lake (OK) 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
CFE - Altamira (Mexico) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Advanced Power - Maple Creek (IN)2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
LG&E/KU - Brown 12 (KY) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
CPV - Basin Ranch (TX) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0
Duke Energy - Anderson (SC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0
Duke Energy Partnership 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0
PV Power - Quynh Lap (Vietnam)2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0
VinEnergo - Hai Phong (Vietnam)2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0
Vietnam Electricity - Quang Trach II (Vietnam)2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0
LG&E/KU - Mill Creek 6 (KY) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
JEA - Northside (FL) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0
Maxim Power Corp (Canada) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0
Additional Identified Backlog 5.5 5.2 9.3 5.3 1.7 0.0
Unnamed Backlog (WFS Estimate) 0.3 2.9 14.0 15.8 8.0 1.2
Capacity (WFS Estimate) 17.5 20.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0
Available Slots (WFS Estimate) 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 14.3 22.8
Percentage booked 100% 100% 100% 90% 40% 5%
Source: McCoy, company reports, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates
Projected backlog as of 3/31/26. (1) McCoy order data as of Q4'25 includes 3.6 GW booked for 2026 & 3.4 GW
booked for 2027 delivery with undisclosed customer names. We exclude these from "Named Bookings - McCoy"
and instead include within ‘Unnamed Bookings (WFS estimate). (2) GEV has publicly confirmed these projects
are in their backlog.
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Notes on Our Analysis
Combining Orders and SRA into Bookings
We grouped orders and slot reservation agreements together as "bookings" to simplify the analysis
and focus on identifying open slots. Orders differ from SRA in that they are more binding and all
specifications have been finalized ahead of production. However, as demand for power increases and
delivery slots become scarce, GEV has increased the requirements for customers to reserve a slot.
Today, we estimate down payments for a slot reservation are $10+ million per HDGT . Additionally, GEV
may charge cancellation fees and incremental progress fees on a monthly basis until delivery.
Estimating Total Capacity of Chevron, Engine No.1 & Crusoe Booking
In January, Chevron (covered by WFS Energy Analyst Sam Margolin), Engine No. 1 (private) and Crusoe
(private) announced plans to utilize seven 7HA turbines (model undisclosed) to meet data center
demand. We estimate these are the largest 7HA.03 model (430 MW each) and all seven are delivered
in 2026. In November 2025, Chevron selected western Texas for the site of the first plant.
As of March 2026, we believe this project is also being referred to by participants as "Kilby." However,
we have not seen official filings for the project.
Duke Energy Anderson (SC) Project and SRA Partnership
In April, Duke Energy (covered by WFS Utility & Power analyst Shar Pourreza) announced a ~4.7 GW
booking (we believe for 7HA.03 turbines). We assume 0.9 GW are delivered in 2028 for the Anderson
(SC) plant, 0.9 GW in 2029, 0.9 GW in 2030, and remainder beyond 2030 (~2 GW) based on IRPs. We
estimate Duke Energy will book the largest 7HA.03 model, as this model was previously booked for
Duke's Cayuga (IN) and Roxboro (NC) plants. These plants are both scheduled to be in-service in 2028.
Advanced Power Project
Advanced Power's (private) planned Maple Creek project in Indiana announced that it would use a GEV
7HA.03 turbine in combined cycle format. The project has a target in service date of 2029, and we
estimate a 2028 delivery date.
Competitive Power Ventures (CPV) Projects
Competitive Power Venture's (private) Shay Energy Center is under development in West Virginia
and will feature 7HA.03 turbines (430 MW each). We estimate a delivery year of 2027 based on the
timeline to start construction that year. CPV's Basin Ranch project is also under development in Texas
and will use two 7HA.03 turbines in combined cycle format. We estimate delivery year of 2028 based
on target in-service date in 2029 and potential staggering of the two projects by CPV for planning
purposes.
Dominion Project
Dominion Energy (covered by Shar Pourreza) is developing the 1,000 MW simple cycle Chesterfield
Energy Reliability Center in Virginia. We estimate 2028 delivery date ahead of target in service date
in 2029. The application to the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality states that GEV 7FA
turbines will be used.
Invenergy Projects
Invenergy (private) is developing two gas power plants. The Sycamore Riverside Energy Center is a 930
MW (simple cycle) gas power plant in Sullivan County, Indiana. The project is under construction and
will use 4 x GEV 7FA.05 turbines (simple cycle). The target completion year is 2028, so we estimate
2027 delivery of turbines. The Red Oak Ridge Energy Center is a proposed 1.2 GW (simple cycle) gas
plant in Paris, Wisconsin. The proposed timeline is to begin construction in mid-2027 and complete
by 2030, so we estimate delivery of turbines in 2028. Although the project is still in the application
process, the engineering plan specifies the use of GEV turbines and the project is one of ten on MISO
ERAS list for expedited interconnection. The Foundry Ridge Energy Center is a proposed 324 MW
peaker in Walworth County, Wisconsin. The proposed timeline is construction in 2026-2027 and
operation in 2028. Although the project is still in the development phase, the CPCN application
specifies the use of GEV turbines.
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LG&E/KU Projects
PPL (covered by Shar Pourreza) subsidiaries LG&E and KU announced plans to build the 645 MW
(each) Brown 12 and Mill Creek 6 CCGT units in Kentucky. The application to the Kentucky Public
Service Commission specifies using GEV turbines. Based on the units' target in-service years of 2030
and 2031, we estimate delivery years of 2028 and 2029, respectively.
NRG Plans for Future Bookings
On 2/26/25, NRG (covered by Shar Pourreza) announced an agreement to secure 2 7HA gas turbines
from GEV with an SRA to build a 1.2 GW CCGT in-service by 2029. This SRA was included in the
backlog at the end of Q1'25 (to our knowledge). We estimate the ~0.8 GW of turbines will deliver
in mid-to-late 2027 ahead of 2029 in-service date based on our estimates of a ~12-18 month lag
between delivery and in-service.
On 5/12/25, NRG signed a second SRA with GEV to build a second 1.2 GW CCGT in-service in 2030.
We estimate this SRA reserves another ~0.8 GW of turbines for delivery in mid to late 2028 (based on
the same ~12-18 month lag between delivery and in-service). Turbine model was not disclosed.
NRG also plans to build additional 3 GW of CCGTs to come online in 2030-2032, again using GEV
turbines. We do not believe these ~2 GW of simple-cycle slots have been reserved yet and do not
include them in our analysis. Given the in-service dates of 2030-2032, we estimate the majority of the
~2 GW SRA will be delivered by GEV beyond 2028.
In NRG's Q2'25 earnings presentation the company details their Texas Energy Fund (TEF)
development portfolio (slide 17), which includes Greens Bayou 6. Although the application is still
pending, a GEV 7HA.03 has been selected for the project, and we include because 1) the project could
get built to meet rising power demand even without the TEF loan and 2) the slot has been secured
for a GEV 7HA.03 and NRG could utilize that turbine in another project if Greens Bayou 6 is not
completed.
Qurayyah Power Plant Expansion Project
GEV announced three 7HA.03 turbines (430 MW each) and two 7HA.02 turbines (384 MW each) will
be installed at the Qurayyah Independent Power Plant. The delivery date was not announced, but we
estimate the turbines will ship in 2028 due to 1) the timing of the order in 2025 (three-year book-to-
bill assumption) and the facility's role in Vision 2030 (we assume it will be operating roughly by 2030).
NextEra Partnerships
In January 2025, NextEra (covered by Shar Pourreza) announced a partnership with GEV to build
"multiple gigawatts" of gas-fired generation. In March 2025, NextEra and GEV announced they are
joining the "AI Infrastructure Partnership" initiative with BlackRock, Global Infrastructure Partners,
Microsoft, MGX, NVIDIA and xAI. However (to our knowledge) no specific booking details or timing
have been announced to date. Due to the limited information, we do not yet include any NextEra
bookings in our model.
In December 2025, NextEra announced plans to build a 1.45 GW (1.2 GW net after carbon capture)
gas power plant with ExxonMobil (covered by Sam Margolin). Although we assume GEV will be the
leading candidate to develop this power plant, we do not include in our tracker as there is no target
completion date and the companies plan to market the site to developers in Q1'26.
JEA - Northside (FL)
JEA, the community-owned utility for Jacksonville, Florida, approved a new combined cycle gas power
plant in August 2025 which will replace Northside Generating Station Unit 3. The project will use a
GEV turbine and be installed by 2031. We estimate the turbine is a 430 MW GEV 7HA.03 based on
the combined cycle plant capacity of 675 MW and that the unit will ship in 2029 ahead of the 2031
retirement of Northside Unit 3.
Delta Offshore Energy - Bac Lieu (Vietnam)
Delta Offshore Energy is developing the Bac Lieu gas power plant in Vietnam. The project will use GEV
9HA.02 turbines and is currently planned to be completed in phases in 2028 and 2029. We estimate
the turbines will be delivered in 2027 and 2028 ahead of project completion.
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ACWA Power
ACWA Power, an IPP based in Saudi Arabia, is developing the Qassim-1 and Taiba-1 projects. Each
project is 1,800 MW (combined cycle) and will use GEV turbines. Both projects are scheduled for
Q2'2027 commercial operation date, so we assume the turbines will be delivered in 2026.
CFE Power Plants
CFE, Mexico's state-owned utility, is planning to develop four combined cycle gas plants by 2028:
Francisco Perez Rios (912 MW), Altamira (581 MW), Mazatlan (575 MW), and Salamanca II (498 MW).
At a press conference in December 2025, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said the turbines
are all sourced from GEV. Because all projects have a commercial operation date of 2028, we assume
deliveries will occur in 2027.
OG&E - Horseshoe Lake
OG&E (OGE, covered by Pourreza) is upgrading its Horseshoe Lake Power Plant in Oklahoma
by adding two additional GE 7F5 turbines by 2028. We estimate a 2027 delivery (because the
configuration is simple cycle).
AEP - Pirkey (TX)
AEP (covered by Pourreza) subsidiary SWEPCO is transitioning the Pirkey Power Plant from coal to
natural gas using two GE turbines totaling 450 MW of output.
Maxim Power Corp
Maxim Power Corporation (TSE: MXG, not covered) entered into an agreement to procure a 7HA.02
gas turbine from GEV for 2030 delivery.
PV Power - Quynh Lap (Vietnam)
GEV disclosed in a press release the planned delivery of two 9HA.02 turbines and generators to
Vietnam for PV Power's Quynh Lap LNG power project in 2029.
VinEnergo - Hai Phong (Vietnam)
GEV disclosed in a press release the planned delivery of two 9HA.02 turbines and generators to
Vietnam for VinEnergo's Hai Phong LNG power project. The plant is reportedly scheduled to be
operational by 2030, so we estimate a 2029 delivery date.
Vietnam Electricity - Quang Trach II (Vietnam)
GEV disclosed in a press release that is it delivering two 9HA.02 turbines and generators to Vietnam
for Vietnam Electricity's Quang Trach II LNG power project. The plant is scheduled to be operational by
2030, so we estimate a 2029 delivery date.
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Financials
GE Vernova (GEV) Summary 2025 3/2026 6/2026 9/2026 122026 2026 3/2027 6/2027 9/2027 122027 2027 2029 2030 2031
Year ended December 31
($ in millions, except per share data) FY2025A 3/31/26E 6/30/26E 9/30/26E 12/31/26E FY2026E 3/31/27E 6/30/27E 9/30/27E12/31/27E FY2027E FY2028E FY2029E FY2030E FY2031E
Summary Operating Metrics
Total orders $59,315 $16,389 $17,595 $19,513 $23,915 $77,412 $18,077 $19,203 $19,775 $23,662 $80,717 $80,269 $86,712 $92,995 $99,494
Total RPO $150,238 $157,419 $164,753 $172,443 $183,224 $183,224 $190,632 $198,535 $205,150 $214,114 $214,114 $237,205 $258,135 $278,550 $298,939
Year/year growth (%) 26% 28% 28% 27% 22% 22% 21% 21% 19% 17% 17% 11% 9% 8% 7%
Revenue Breakdown
Power 19,672 5,351 5,119 5,774 6,827 23,070 6,088 5,720 6,602 7,772 26,182 31,441 36,686 39,587 41,575
Wind 9,096 1,533 1,984 2,329 2,063 7,910 1,394 1,800 2,105 1,849 7,148 6,033 5,834 5,836 5,937
Electrification 9,500 2,669 3,158 3,720 4,245 13,792 3,188 3,780 4,453 5,076 16,497 19,705 23,262 27,157 31,592
Revenue $37,818 $9,413 $10,157 $11,686 $12,991 $44,247 $10,512 $11,186 $13,006 $14,538 $49,242 $56,508 $65,002 $71,720 $78,168
Year/year growth (%) 9% 15% 12% 19% 20% 17% 12% 10% 11% 12% 11% 15% 15% 10% 9%
Adjusted EBITDA Breakdown
Revenue $37,818 $9,413 $10,157 $11,686 $12,991 $44,247 $10,512 $11,186 $13,006 $14,538 $49,242 $56,508 $65,002 $71,720 $78,168
Cost of revenue 30,258 7,381 7,486 8,641 9,009 32,517 7,581 7,837 9,271 9,806 34,494 38,493 43,225 47,542 51,515
Selling, general and administrative 4,949 1,391 1,482 1,616 1,791 6,279 1,385 1,470 1,674 1,863 6,393 6,542 7,080 7,430 7,672
Research and development 1,197 307 334 385 432 1,458 349 377 438 493 1,657 1,927 2,231 2,497 2,770
Stock-based compensation 257 78 79 79 80 316 81 82 83 83 329 342 356 370 385
Depreciation and amortization 847 207 206 216 235 864 211 210 221 239 881 899 917 935 954
Adjusted EBITDA $3,167 $784 $1,239 $1,425 $2,225 $5,673 $1,630 $1,864 $2,037 $2,879 $8,410 $11,391 $14,445 $16,341 $18,166
Year/year growth (%) 44% 79% 68% 71% 92% 79% 108% 50% 43% 29% 48% 35% 27% 13% 11%
Power EBITDA 2,902 812 961 924 1,331 4,028 1,123 1,244 1,231 1,704 5,302 6,925 8,815 9,703 10,420
% margin 14.7% 15.2% 18.8% 16.0% 19.5% 17.5% 18.5% 21.8% 18.6% 21.9% 20.3% 22.0% 24.0% 24.5% 25.1%
Wind EBITDA (597) (394) (136) (63) 146 (447) (78) (61) (4) 139 (4) 362 350 350 356
% margin (6.6%) (25.7%) (6.9%) (2.7%) 7.1% (5.7%) (5.6%) (3.4%) (0.2%) 7.5% (0.1%) 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Electrification EBITDA 1,434 463 550 701 826 2,541 682 816 952 1,118 3,567 4,569 5,784 6,817 7,935
% margin 15.1% 17.4% 17.4% 18.9% 19.5% 18.4% 21.4% 21.6% 21.4% 22.0% 21.6% 23.2% 24.9% 25.1% 25.1%
Adjusted EBITDA $3,167 $784 $1,239 $1,425 $2,225 $5,673 $1,630 $1,864 $2,037 $2,879 $8,410 $11,391 $14,445 $16,341 $18,166
% margin 8.4% 8.3% 12.2% 12.2% 17.1% 12.8% 15.5% 16.7% 15.7% 19.8% 17.1% 20.2% 22.2% 22.8% 23.2%
Margins
Gross margin 20.7% 21.6% 26.3% 26.1% 30.7% 26.5% 27.9% 29.9% 28.7% 32.5% 29.9% 31.9% 33.5% 33.7% 34.1%
Operating margin 3.7% 4.5% 9.4% 9.9% 14.6% 10.0% 12.4% 14.5% 13.5% 17.4% 14.7% 18.0% 20.3% 21.0% 21.9%
Adjusted EBITDA margin 8.4% 8.3% 12.2% 12.2% 17.1% 12.8% 15.5% 16.7% 15.7% 19.8% 17.1% 20.2% 22.2% 22.8% 23.2%
Net profit margin 5.3% 4.5% 8.2% 8.4% 11.9% 8.5% 10.5% 12.0% 11.2% 14.2% 12.1% 14.7% 16.5% 17.1% 17.9%
Adjusted FCF margin 10.7% (17.0%) 16.4% 14.8% 24.2% 11.2% (22.7%) 20.4% 17.6% 26.7% 12.3% 9.4% 14.4% 13.6% 13.9%
Metrics
Revenue 38,068 9,413 10,157 11,686 12,991 44,247 10,512 11,186 13,006 14,538 49,242 56,508 65,002 71,720 78,168
Net income 4,883 424 832 977 1,550 3,783 1,103 1,341 1,457 2,058 5,959 8,293 10,721 12,268 13,968
Adjusted free cash flow (FCF) 4,039 (1,597) 1,670 1,729 3,139 4,941 (2,385) 2,285 2,286 3,888 6,073 5,327 9,365 9,736 10,859
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) $7.23 $1.55 $3.04 $3.58 $5.69 $13.87 $4.06 $4.94 $5.38 $7.62 $22.00 $30.89 $40.33 $46.65 $53.71
Year/year growth (%) 401% 70% 63% 118% 103% 92% 162% 62% 50% 34% 59% 40% 31% 16% 15%
Adjusted FCF per share $14.63 ($5.84) $6.11 $6.33 $11.53 $18.09 ($8.78) $8.42 $8.44 $14.40 $22.41 $19.83 $35.21 $37.01 $41.74
FCF after dividend 442 (661) 821 968 572 1,700 906 124 666 1,741 3,764 4,402 5,485 4,686 8,667
Diluted average shares outstanding 276 274 273 273 272 273 272 271 271 270 271 269 266 263 260
Valuation
P/E multiple 113.1x 131.8x 67.1x 57.1x 35.9x 58.9x 50.3x 41.4x 38.0x 26.8x 37.1x 26.5x 20.3x 17.5x 15.2x
EV/Sales multiple 5.6x 5.6x 5.3x 4.5x 4.0x 4.8x 5.0x 4.7x 4.0x 3.5x 4.2x 3.6x 3.0x 2.6x 2.3x
EV/EBITDA multiple 67.5x 67.8x 43.2x 37.3x 23.6x 37.1x 32.5x 28.2x 25.6x 17.8x 24.5x 17.7x 13.5x 11.4x 9.8x
FCF yield (market cap) 2% (1%) 1% 1% 1% 2% (1%) 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 4% 5% 5%
EV/FCF multiple 52.9x -33.3x 32.1x 30.7x 16.7x 42.6x -22.2x 23.0x 22.8x 13.2x 33.9x 37.9x 20.8x 19.2x 16.5x
Financing
Capex spending 950 242 229 303 401 1,175 227 214 284 375 1,100 1,050 1,205 1,330 1,450
Common equity issuance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Share repurchases 3,316 0 416 436 902 1,754 0 607 607 1,136 2,350 2,872 3,413 3,833 4,142
Dividends per share $1.00 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $2.00 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $2.20 $2.42 $2.66 $2.93 $3.22
Credit Metrics
Total debt 0 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600
(-) Cash and cash equivalents 8,847 10,316 8,735 9,893 11,996 11,995 9,464 10,995 12,526 15,131 15,130 16,944 22,198 27,341 33,232
Net debt (8,847) (7,716) (6,135) (7,293) (9,396) (9,395) (6,864) (8,395) (9,926) (12,531) (12,530) (14,344) (19,598) (24,741) (30,632)
Debt / Adjusted organic EBITDA 0.0x 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x
Net debt / Adjusted organic EBITDA0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x
Covenant (Net debt / TTM EBITDA) 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x
Note: GEV's fiscal year ends on December 31st.
Source: Company reports and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates
Pricing data as of: 3/30/2026
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GE Vernova Inc. Equity Research
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)
Investment Thesis
We rate GEV Overweight. We project high levels of demand for its suite of generation and grid products, and believe the company has
strong potential to accrete margin through price raises and lean manufacturing.
Target Price Valuation for GEV
Our price target of $896/share is based on a 50/50 blend of:
• A three-stage discounted cash flow model (6.9% WACC, based on 9.5% cost of equity and 5.5% cost of debt), and
• Target P/E multiple (FY2031E) of 24x discounted back to FY2027 at 9.5% cost of equity. We derived our P/E multiple from a regression
of S&P 500 companies using EPS growth and gross margin as inputs.
Risks to Our Price Target and Rating for GEV
Key Risks. (1) Power demand boom fizzles and reduces gas turbine and services demand. (2) Efficiency gains & cost-cutting are slower
than anticipated. (3) Gas turbine capacity expansion by GEV or peers leads to collapse in orders and/or price.
Companies Mentioned in Report
Company Name Ticker Last Price
(03/30/26)
GE Vernova Inc. GEV $817.35
Source: Wells Fargo Securities LLC Estimates, FactSet
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Required Disclosures
I, Michael Blum, certify that:
1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and
2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research
analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment
banking revenue.
Additional Information Available Upon Request
GE Vernova Inc. Rating History as of 03-27-2026powered by: BlueMatrix
1,0008006004002000Apr 23Jul 23Oct 23Jan 24Apr 24Jul 24Oct 24Jan 25Apr 25Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26
I:BUY:$385.0011/21/2024BUY:$411.0012/13/2024BUY:$474.0001/23/2025BUY:$697.0007/24/2025BUY:$717.0010/23/2025BUY:$831.0012/16/2025
Closing PricePrice TargetInitiation (I); Drop Coverage (D); Overweight (BUY); Equal Weight (HOLD); Underweight (SELL); Suspended (SR); Not Rated (NR); No Estimate (NE)
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, maintains a market in the common stock of GE Vernova Inc..
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, or its affiliates has a significant financial interest in GE Vernova Inc..
STOCK RATING
OW=Overweight: Total return on stock expected to be 10%+ over the next 12 months. (BUY)
EW=Equal Weight: Total return on stock expected to be -10% to +10% over the next 12 months. (HOLD)
UW=Underweight: Total return on stock expected to lag the Overweight- and Equal Weight-rated stocks within the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12
months. (SELL)
NR=Not Rated: The rating and price target has been removed due to lack of fundamental basis to support the recommendation or due to legal, regulatory or
company policy considerations.
FINRA regulation requires member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories: Buy, Hold and Sell. In accordance with FINRA regulation and solely to
satisfy those disclosure requirements in the ratings distribution table and ratings history chart contained in these Required Disclosures, our rating of Overweight
corresponds to a Buy rating; Equal Weight corresponds to a Hold rating; and Underweight corresponds to a Sell rating.
As of March 30, 2026
53.5% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Overweight. (BUY)
39.4% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Equal Weight. (HOLD)
7.1% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Underweight. (SELL)
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 42.6% of its Equity Research Overweight-rated companies. (BUY)
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 39.3% of its Equity Research Equal Weight-rated companies. (HOLD)
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 39.7% of its Equity Research Underweight-rated companies. (SELL)
Important Disclosure for U.S. Clients
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GE Vernova Inc. Equity Research
This report was prepared by Wells Fargo Securities Global Research Department (“WFS Research”) personnel associated with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC ("Wells
Fargo Securities").
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